User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative majority 40

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.5%318 31.0%4013+27345
LAB 41.0%262 22.0%051-51211
LIB 7.6%12 21.0%160+1628
Brexit 0.0%0 14.0%00+00
Green 1.7%1 7.0%00+01
SNP 3.1%35 3.5%101+944
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%01-13
UKIP 1.9%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.7%0 1.2%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

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Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 23.0%05-58
LAB 27.1%7 12.0%05-52
LIB 6.8%4 14.0%10+15
Brexit 0.0%0 3.0%00+00
Green 0.2%0 8.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 39.0%101+944
UKIP 0.2%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.3%0 1.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Gordon (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Aberdeen North (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
SNP
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
63494Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathLesley Laird72,72163.518.340.427.34.79.30.00.00.00.0LABLAB
84472Glasgow North EastPaul Sweeney59,93253.010.228.013.20.00.048.70.00.00.0LABSNP
96460Glasgow South WestChris Stephens62,99156.210.225.813.14.70.046.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
106451Edinburgh SouthIan Murray64,55374.117.431.413.70.011.026.50.00.00.0LABLAB
127429Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillHugh Gaffney71,19863.313.523.011.40.09.642.60.00.00.0LABSNP
128428Dundee WestChris Law62,64461.710.619.912.43.90.051.30.00.01.8SNPSNP
132424Glasgow CentralAlison Thewliss64,34655.911.020.111.70.09.148.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
133423Glasgow EastDavid Linden66,24254.616.325.213.20.00.045.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
140416Glasgow NorthPatrick Grady53,86362.19.317.211.83.418.340.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
141415Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil21,30169.613.421.111.60.00.046.30.07.50.0SNPSNP
141415Glasgow North WestCarol Monaghan63,77360.915.022.713.80.00.048.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
143413Rutherglen and Hamilton WestGed Killen80,09863.516.924.315.40.00.043.30.00.00.0LABSNP
143413GlenrothesPeter Grant66,37860.914.121.312.94.10.047.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
145411Motherwell and WishawMarion Fellows68,21561.517.524.413.20.00.044.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
156400Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastStuart McDonald66,55465.915.421.513.40.00.049.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
161395InverclydeRonnie Cowan58,85366.418.623.912.90.00.044.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
162394Dunbartonshire WestMartin Docherty67,60265.214.019.310.60.09.046.20.00.00.9SNPSNP
164392Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthMhairi Black61,34468.017.022.314.20.00.046.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
164392Glasgow SouthStewart McDonald69,12664.413.718.611.83.58.843.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
193363Edinburgh EastTommy Sheppard65,89666.015.517.512.70.08.645.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
201355MidlothianDanielle Rowley68,32866.322.523.114.10.00.040.40.00.00.0LABSNP
207349Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael34,16468.13.84.155.32.80.032.30.00.01.6LIBLIB
220336Airdrie and ShottsNeil Gray64,14659.220.219.210.80.08.940.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
230326Aberdeen NorthKirsty Blackman62,13059.217.614.513.03.48.143.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
231325East LothianMartin Whitfield79,09370.626.823.013.70.00.036.50.00.00.0LABSNP
233323Dunfermline and West FifeDouglas Chapman75,67267.421.617.014.20.08.538.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
233323Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthGavin Newlands67,43669.124.419.712.80.00.043.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
233323LivingstonHannah Bardell81,20864.721.316.111.10.08.443.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
236320Kilmarnock and LoudounAlan Brown73,32763.423.217.311.00.00.047.70.00.00.8SNPSNP
238318Edinburgh North and LeithDeidre Brock79,47371.221.614.812.23.211.336.20.00.00.8SNPSNP
238318East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowLisa Cameron80,44267.322.315.511.40.08.742.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
238318Dunbartonshire EastJo Swinson66,30078.110.73.546.40.06.232.60.00.00.6LIBLIB
242314Dundee EastStewart Hosie65,85465.223.815.212.30.00.048.00.00.00.7SNPSNP
243313Linlithgow and East FalkirkMartyn Day86,18665.123.514.811.13.28.238.60.00.00.8SNPSNP
244312FalkirkJohnny McNally82,24065.423.114.210.40.010.242.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
244312Lanark and Hamilton EastAngela Crawley77,31365.329.019.912.50.00.038.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
251305Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossJamie Stone46,86865.917.24.942.62.90.032.50.00.00.0LIBLIB
253303Edinburgh WestChristine Jardine71,50073.818.24.040.50.06.330.90.00.00.0LIBLIB
254302Ross Skye and LochaberIan Blackford53,63871.719.34.627.52.80.043.60.00.02.3SNPSNP
254302Ayrshire North and ArranPatricia Gibson73,17464.828.012.69.90.07.841.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
254302Ayrshire CentralPhilippa Whitford68,99765.331.115.411.20.00.042.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
254302Edinburgh South WestJoanna Cherry71,17869.427.811.811.53.07.737.70.00.00.7SNPSNP
255301Fife North EastStephen Gethins58,68571.320.33.539.60.00.036.60.00.00.0SNPLIB
264292Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyDrew Hendry76,84468.725.45.019.02.76.441.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
266291Renfrewshire EastPaul Masterton70,06776.736.715.911.00.00.036.40.00.00.0CONCON
274282Ayr Carrick and CumnockBill Grant71,24164.936.713.710.40.00.039.10.00.00.0CONSNP
284272Argyll and ButeBrendan O'Hara67,23071.529.45.325.20.00.040.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
287269StirlingStephen Kerr66,41574.333.89.010.70.07.139.40.00.00.0CONSNP
304252Ochil and South PerthshireLuke Graham76,76770.637.910.911.20.00.039.90.00.00.0CONSNP
307250Aberdeen SouthRoss Thomson64,96468.538.611.313.90.00.036.20.00.00.0CONCON
312245Dumfries and GallowayAlister Jack74,20669.540.111.811.00.00.037.10.00.00.0CONCON
341215GordonColin Clark78,53168.436.94.818.50.00.039.90.00.00.0CONSNP
350206Perth and North PerthshirePete Wishart71,74371.836.83.411.62.70.045.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
374182AngusKirstene Hair63,84063.041.45.710.30.00.042.70.00.00.0CONSNP
400157Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell67,67272.445.78.311.50.00.034.50.00.00.0CONCON
430127MorayDouglas Ross70,64967.443.84.29.20.00.042.70.00.00.0CONCON
433124Aberdeenshire West and KincardineAndrew Bowie72,47771.244.04.215.40.00.036.40.00.00.0CONCON
450107Banff and BuchanDavid Duguid67,60161.644.03.39.90.00.042.80.00.00.0CONCON
53819Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkJohn Lamont73,19171.549.83.110.80.00.036.30.00.00.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


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