User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative majority 102

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.5%318 35.0%7315+58376
LAB 41.0%262 22.0%085-85177
LIB 7.6%12 20.0%130+1325
Brexit 0.0%0 12.0%00+00
Green 1.7%1 6.0%00+01
SNP 3.1%35 3.9%150+1550
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%01-13
UKIP 1.9%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.7%0 0.8%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

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Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 20.0%09-94
LAB 27.1%7 10.0%06-61
LIB 6.8%4 8.0%00+04
Brexit 0.0%0 10.0%00+00
Green 0.2%0 6.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 43.0%150+1550
UKIP 0.2%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.3%0 3.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Gordon (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Airdrie and Shotts (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
SNP
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
49505Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathLesley Laird72,72163.515.940.523.113.56.90.00.00.00.0LABLAB
90463Glasgow South WestChris Stephens62,99156.27.921.76.213.70.050.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
114439Glasgow North EastPaul Sweeney59,93253.014.224.06.60.00.055.30.00.00.0LABSNP
118435Dundee WestChris Law62,64461.77.616.35.511.40.055.10.00.04.0SNPSNP
121432Glasgow NorthPatrick Grady53,86362.16.914.96.111.516.244.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
126427GlenrothesPeter Grant66,37860.911.718.06.812.10.051.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
135418Edinburgh SouthIan Murray64,55374.122.527.46.60.08.435.10.00.00.0LABSNP
136417Glasgow SouthStewart McDonald69,12664.411.316.16.011.96.748.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
146407Glasgow CentralAlison Thewliss64,34655.914.617.75.90.06.854.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
154399Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillHugh Gaffney71,19863.317.520.25.20.07.249.90.00.00.0LABSNP
161392Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael34,16468.11.23.150.37.70.034.70.00.03.1LIBLIB
161392Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil21,30169.616.518.25.70.00.052.10.07.50.0SNPSNP
161392Glasgow EastDavid Linden66,24254.620.221.66.50.00.051.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
165388Glasgow North WestCarol Monaghan63,77360.918.419.57.70.00.054.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
175378Rutherglen and Hamilton WestGed Killen80,09863.520.620.98.90.00.049.60.00.00.0LABSNP
179374Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastStuart McDonald66,55465.918.818.57.00.00.055.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
179374Motherwell and WishawMarion Fellows68,21561.521.220.96.60.00.051.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
179374Dunbartonshire WestMartin Docherty67,60265.216.916.53.70.06.853.00.00.03.2SNPSNP
188365Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthMhairi Black61,34468.020.219.28.20.00.052.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
190363InverclydeRonnie Cowan58,85366.422.020.66.70.00.050.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
197356Aberdeen NorthKirsty Blackman62,13059.215.112.67.710.96.047.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
200353Edinburgh EastTommy Sheppard65,89666.018.715.57.10.06.552.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
221332MidlothianDanielle Rowley68,32866.325.819.88.00.00.046.40.00.00.0LABSNP
222331Edinburgh North and LeithDeidre Brock79,47371.218.612.35.910.69.240.50.00.02.9SNPSNP
225328Airdrie and ShottsNeil Gray64,14659.223.716.95.00.06.747.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
232321Linlithgow and East FalkirkMartyn Day86,18665.120.512.34.810.66.142.80.00.02.9SNPSNP
233320Dunbartonshire EastJo Swinson66,30078.111.53.241.60.04.537.00.00.02.1LIBLIB
233320Dunfermline and West FifeDouglas Chapman75,67267.424.815.08.70.06.445.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
234319LivingstonHannah Bardell81,20864.724.314.35.60.06.349.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
236317East LothianMartin Whitfield79,09370.630.219.87.60.00.042.50.00.00.0LABSNP
236317Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthGavin Newlands67,43669.127.417.07.10.00.048.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
236317Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossJamie Stone46,86865.914.54.138.38.10.035.00.00.00.0LIBLIB
237316Kilmarnock and LoudounAlan Brown73,32763.425.314.44.50.00.053.00.00.02.8SNPSNP
238315East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowLisa Cameron80,44267.325.513.85.80.06.448.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
239314Ross Skye and LochaberIan Blackford53,63871.716.23.522.67.80.046.00.00.03.8SNPSNP
241312Dundee EastStewart Hosie65,85465.225.612.66.10.00.053.00.00.02.7SNPSNP
243310FalkirkJohnny McNally82,24065.426.112.74.80.08.048.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
247306Edinburgh South WestJoanna Cherry71,17869.424.79.85.59.95.741.60.00.02.7SNPSNP
247306Lanark and Hamilton EastAngela Crawley77,31365.332.217.16.50.00.044.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
249304Edinburgh WestChristine Jardine71,50073.819.64.036.40.04.635.50.00.00.0LIBLIB
253300Fife North EastStephen Gethins58,68571.321.13.235.60.00.040.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
253300Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyDrew Hendry76,84468.722.84.514.78.54.744.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
255298Ayrshire North and ArranPatricia Gibson73,17464.830.511.34.90.05.847.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
256297Ayrshire CentralPhilippa Whitford68,99765.333.413.35.90.00.047.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
277276Renfrewshire EastPaul Masterton70,06776.739.113.75.70.00.041.50.00.00.0CONSNP
279274Argyll and ButeBrendan O'Hara67,23071.530.54.720.90.00.043.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
286267Ayr Carrick and CumnockBill Grant71,24164.938.911.95.30.00.043.90.00.00.0CONSNP
288265StirlingStephen Kerr66,41574.335.88.36.00.05.344.60.00.00.0CONSNP
306247Ochil and South PerthshireLuke Graham76,76770.639.79.56.40.00.044.40.00.00.0CONSNP
307246Aberdeen SouthRoss Thomson64,96468.540.59.89.10.00.040.70.00.00.0CONSNP
310243Perth and North PerthshirePete Wishart71,74371.834.22.87.47.70.047.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
313241Dumfries and GallowayAlister Jack74,20669.542.010.36.10.00.041.60.00.00.0CONCON
330223GordonColin Clark78,53168.437.94.214.30.00.043.60.00.00.0CONSNP
360193AngusKirstene Hair63,84063.042.55.06.00.00.046.50.00.00.0CONSNP
395159Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell67,67272.447.27.36.90.00.038.60.00.00.0CONCON
411142MorayDouglas Ross70,64967.444.73.85.10.00.046.40.00.00.0CONSNP
415139Aberdeenshire West and KincardineAndrew Bowie72,47771.244.93.811.30.00.040.00.00.00.0CONCON
422131Banff and BuchanDavid Duguid67,60161.644.83.06.00.00.046.30.00.00.0CONSNP
51440Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkJohn Lamont73,19171.550.42.97.10.00.039.60.00.00.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


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