User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative short 16 of majority

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.5%318 36.0%715-8310
LAB 41.0%262 33.0%014-14248
LIB 7.6%12 11.0%62+416
UKIP 1.9%0 9.0%00+00
Green 1.7%1 4.0%00+01
SNP 3.1%35 3.8%190+1954
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%01-13
Other 0.7%0 2.7%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

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Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 17.0%012-121
LAB 27.1%7 18.0%05-52
LIB 6.8%4 8.0%02-22
UKIP 0.2%0 4.0%00+00
Green 0.2%0 5.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 45.0%190+1954
Other 0.3%0 3.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Perth and North Perthshire (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Linlithgow and East Falkirk (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
68491Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathLesley Laird72,72163.512.752.922.24.94.70.00.02.7LABLAB
95464Edinburgh SouthIan Murray64,55374.112.745.84.10.04.630.20.02.6LABLAB
119439Glasgow North EastPaul Sweeney59,93253.06.536.04.00.00.051.00.02.5LABSNP
130428Glasgow South WestChris Stephens62,99156.25.433.63.94.90.049.60.02.6SNPSNP
148410Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillHugh Gaffney71,19863.39.633.53.20.04.546.70.02.6LABSNP
153405Glasgow CentralAlison Thewliss64,34655.97.529.34.10.04.452.20.02.5SNPSNP
161397Glasgow NorthPatrick Grady53,86362.14.725.44.63.514.145.20.02.5SNPSNP
164394Dundee WestChris Law62,64461.75.926.25.13.60.055.60.03.6SNPSNP
169389GlenrothesPeter Grant66,37860.98.927.95.03.60.051.90.02.6SNPSNP
171387Glasgow SouthStewart McDonald69,12664.48.527.54.43.64.548.80.02.6SNPSNP
173385Glasgow EastDavid Linden66,24254.613.331.73.60.00.047.90.03.4SNPSNP
174384Dunbartonshire WestMartin Docherty67,60265.210.428.63.50.04.550.50.02.6SNPSNP
174384Glasgow North WestCarol Monaghan63,77360.911.229.15.60.00.051.60.02.6SNPSNP
179379Rutherglen and Hamilton WestGed Killen80,09863.513.530.76.30.00.046.20.03.3LABSNP
179379Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil21,30169.611.928.87.20.00.049.60.02.6SNPSNP
180378Motherwell and WishawMarion Fellows68,21561.514.531.04.30.00.047.70.02.6SNPSNP
180378InverclydeRonnie Cowan58,85366.414.330.74.60.00.047.70.02.6SNPSNP
186372Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthMhairi Black61,34468.012.527.85.20.00.049.80.04.7SNPSNP
189369Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastStuart McDonald66,55465.912.827.14.90.00.052.70.02.6SNPSNP
189369Edinburgh EastTommy Sheppard65,89666.011.725.65.40.04.550.20.02.6SNPSNP
195363Airdrie and ShottsNeil Gray64,14659.215.928.03.30.04.745.50.02.7SNPSNP
198360MidlothianDanielle Rowley68,32866.317.929.65.90.00.043.80.02.7LABSNP
210348Aberdeen NorthKirsty Blackman62,13059.211.720.95.83.74.649.10.04.1SNPSNP
216342East LothianMartin Whitfield79,09370.621.729.45.30.00.040.20.03.4LABSNP
217341Dunfermline and West FifeDouglas Chapman75,67267.417.224.87.10.04.743.50.02.7SNPSNP
221337LivingstonHannah Bardell81,20864.717.023.64.10.04.748.00.02.7SNPSNP
225333Edinburgh North and LeithDeidre Brock79,47371.215.722.15.83.87.842.10.02.7SNPSNP
227331Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthGavin Newlands67,43669.119.825.15.30.00.047.00.02.7SNPSNP
230328Linlithgow and East FalkirkMartyn Day86,18665.117.422.04.73.84.844.50.02.8SNPSNP
234324Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael34,16468.10.44.450.44.40.037.10.03.4LIBLIB
234324East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowLisa Cameron80,44267.319.022.64.20.04.746.80.02.7SNPSNP
237321Kilmarnock and LoudounAlan Brown73,32763.419.022.14.30.00.051.80.02.7SNPSNP
245313FalkirkJohnny McNally82,24065.419.920.73.30.06.447.00.02.7SNPSNP
248310Lanark and Hamilton EastAngela Crawley77,31365.325.025.24.60.00.042.40.02.8SNPSNP
250308Dundee EastStewart Hosie65,85465.219.719.35.90.00.052.40.02.7SNPSNP
253305Dunbartonshire EastJo Swinson66,30078.18.15.441.70.04.437.80.02.5LIBLIB
253305Edinburgh South WestJoanna Cherry71,17869.421.217.75.63.94.943.90.02.8SNPSNP
253305Ayrshire North and ArranPatricia Gibson73,17464.823.218.43.60.04.947.10.02.8SNPSNP
253305Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossJamie Stone46,86865.911.75.637.93.70.038.50.02.7LIBSNP
254304Ayrshire CentralPhilippa Whitford68,99765.326.119.54.60.00.047.10.02.8SNPSNP
258300Ross Skye and LochaberIan Blackford53,63871.713.75.523.03.70.049.70.04.4SNPSNP
260298Edinburgh WestChristine Jardine71,50073.814.75.835.50.04.636.50.02.9LIBSNP
269289Renfrewshire EastPaul Masterton70,06776.731.220.14.40.00.041.40.02.9CONSNP
273285Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyDrew Hendry76,84468.718.77.113.53.84.848.10.03.9SNPSNP
278280Fife North EastStephen Gethins58,68571.316.73.234.90.00.042.10.03.2SNPSNP
285273Ayr Carrick and CumnockBill Grant71,24164.931.317.34.20.00.044.30.02.9CONSNP
291267StirlingStephen Kerr66,41574.328.513.04.70.05.045.30.03.6CONSNP
307251Ochil and South PerthshireLuke Graham76,76770.632.513.55.50.00.045.50.02.9CONSNP
307251Argyll and ButeBrendan O'Hara67,23071.525.05.920.40.00.045.80.02.8SNPSNP
307251Aberdeen SouthRoss Thomson64,96468.533.114.08.20.00.041.80.02.9CONSNP
307251Dumfries and GallowayAlister Jack74,20669.534.214.44.70.00.042.70.04.0CONSNP
330228Perth and North PerthshirePete Wishart71,74371.829.13.97.34.10.052.60.02.9SNPSNP
337221GordonColin Clark78,53168.431.85.313.90.00.046.10.02.9CONSNP
351207AngusKirstene Hair63,84063.035.96.55.60.00.049.00.03.0CONSNP
353205Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell67,67272.439.710.16.40.00.040.80.03.0CONSNP
383175MorayDouglas Ross70,64967.438.04.54.60.00.049.40.03.5CONSNP
386172Aberdeenshire West and KincardineAndrew Bowie72,47771.238.34.611.00.00.043.00.03.0CONSNP
389169Banff and BuchanDavid Duguid67,60161.638.33.45.80.00.049.50.03.0CONSNP
435124Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkJohn Lamont73,19171.543.63.47.10.00.043.10.03.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


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