User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative majority 160

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.5%318 37.0%969+87405
LAB 41.0%262 22.0%0106-106156
LIB 7.6%12 18.0%100+1022
Brexit 0.0%0 11.0%00+00
Green 1.7%1 5.0%00+01
SNP 3.1%35 3.8%100+1045
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%01-13
UKIP 1.9%0 1.0%00+00
Other 0.7%0 1.9%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

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Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 23.0%05-58
LAB 27.1%7 13.0%05-52
LIB 6.8%4 10.0%00+04
Brexit 0.0%0 9.0%00+00
Green 0.2%0 2.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 42.0%100+1045
UKIP 0.2%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.3%0 1.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Perth and North Perthshire (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Falkirk (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
SNP
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
39523Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathLesley Laird72,72163.518.343.923.911.82.10.00.00.00.0LABLAB
78483Glasgow South WestChris Stephens62,99156.210.224.16.611.40.047.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
89473Edinburgh SouthIan Murray64,55374.123.034.37.80.02.432.50.00.00.0LABLAB
90471Glasgow North EastPaul Sweeney59,93253.015.226.46.70.00.051.70.00.00.0LABSNP
101460Glasgow NorthPatrick Grady53,86362.19.318.67.39.911.643.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
110451Dundee WestChris Law62,64461.710.618.36.99.80.052.70.00.01.8SNPSNP
117444Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillHugh Gaffney71,19863.318.525.16.30.02.147.90.00.00.0LABSNP
118443Glasgow SouthStewart McDonald69,12664.413.720.27.210.12.046.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
119442Glasgow CentralAlison Thewliss64,34655.915.822.07.00.02.053.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
120441GlenrothesPeter Grant66,37860.914.119.77.210.10.048.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
136425Dunbartonshire WestMartin Docherty67,60265.218.821.26.00.02.051.20.00.00.8SNPSNP
138423Glasgow EastDavid Linden66,24254.621.423.46.80.00.048.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
141420Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil21,30169.618.019.55.90.00.049.10.07.50.0SNPSNP
142419Glasgow North WestCarol Monaghan63,77360.919.721.17.90.00.051.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
146415Rutherglen and Hamilton WestGed Killen80,09863.521.922.69.20.00.046.30.00.00.0LABSNP
153408Motherwell and WishawMarion Fellows68,21561.522.522.66.90.00.048.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
158403Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastStuart McDonald66,55465.920.219.77.30.00.052.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
160401Edinburgh EastTommy Sheppard65,89666.020.119.28.20.01.950.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
161400InverclydeRonnie Cowan58,85366.423.322.36.90.00.047.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
161400Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthMhairi Black61,34468.021.620.68.40.00.049.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
167394Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael34,16468.13.82.151.57.40.033.50.00.01.7LIBLIB
174387Aberdeen NorthKirsty Blackman62,13059.217.615.68.89.51.846.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
191370Airdrie and ShottsNeil Gray64,14659.225.021.06.10.02.045.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
200361Edinburgh North and LeithDeidre Brock79,47371.221.616.08.09.44.939.40.00.00.8SNPSNP
200361MidlothianDanielle Rowley68,32866.327.221.48.20.00.043.20.00.00.0LABSNP
218343Linlithgow and East FalkirkMartyn Day86,18665.123.516.06.89.41.941.70.00.00.8SNPSNP
218343Dunfermline and West FifeDouglas Chapman75,67267.426.218.69.80.01.943.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
222339LivingstonHannah Bardell81,20864.725.817.76.70.01.947.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
230331East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowLisa Cameron80,44267.327.017.06.90.02.047.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
230331East LothianMartin Whitfield79,09370.631.521.47.80.00.039.40.00.00.0LABSNP
231330Dunbartonshire EastJo Swinson66,30078.114.24.043.30.01.536.40.00.00.6LIBLIB
235326Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthGavin Newlands67,43669.128.918.07.30.00.045.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
235326Kilmarnock and LoudounAlan Brown73,32763.427.515.65.80.00.050.40.00.00.8SNPSNP
235326FalkirkJohnny McNally82,24065.427.815.66.00.03.647.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
240321Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossJamie Stone46,86865.917.22.938.97.40.033.70.00.00.0LIBLIB
240321Dundee EastStewart Hosie65,85465.228.013.47.30.00.050.60.00.00.7SNPSNP
241320Edinburgh South WestJoanna Cherry71,17869.427.812.77.58.91.840.60.00.00.7SNPSNP
242319Lanark and Hamilton EastAngela Crawley77,31365.333.718.16.80.00.041.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
247314Ross Skye and LochaberIan Blackford53,63871.719.32.723.77.30.044.70.00.02.3SNPSNP
247314Edinburgh WestChristine Jardine71,50073.821.84.537.40.01.534.80.00.00.0LIBLIB
251310Ayrshire North and ArranPatricia Gibson73,17464.832.213.85.90.01.846.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
254307Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyDrew Hendry76,84468.725.45.315.87.91.544.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
257304Ayrshire CentralPhilippa Whitford68,99765.335.213.76.20.00.045.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
257304Fife North EastStephen Gethins58,68571.323.61.636.00.00.038.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
271291Renfrewshire EastPaul Masterton70,06776.740.914.15.90.00.039.10.00.00.0CONCON
280281StirlingStephen Kerr66,41574.337.710.07.10.01.643.60.00.00.0CONSNP
285276Ayr Carrick and CumnockBill Grant71,24164.940.812.05.60.00.041.70.00.00.0CONSNP
288273Argyll and ButeBrendan O'Hara67,23071.532.93.421.30.00.042.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
310251Ochil and South PerthshireLuke Graham76,76770.641.89.16.70.00.042.40.00.00.0CONSNP
313249Aberdeen SouthRoss Thomson64,96468.542.59.59.40.00.038.60.00.00.0CONCON
317245Dumfries and GallowayAlister Jack74,20669.544.010.06.50.00.039.60.00.00.0CONCON
331230Perth and North PerthshirePete Wishart71,74371.836.81.48.07.10.046.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
345216GordonColin Clark78,53168.440.32.814.70.00.042.10.00.00.0CONSNP
387174AngusKirstene Hair63,84063.044.83.86.40.00.045.00.00.00.0CONSNP
416146Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell67,67272.449.46.47.30.00.036.90.00.00.0CONCON
438124MorayDouglas Ross70,64967.447.22.35.50.00.045.00.00.00.0CONCON
442120Aberdeenshire West and KincardineAndrew Bowie72,47771.247.42.311.70.00.038.60.00.00.0CONCON
456106Banff and BuchanDavid Duguid67,60161.647.21.46.40.00.045.00.00.00.0CONCON
53923Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkJohn Lamont73,19171.552.91.37.50.00.038.30.00.00.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


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