User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative short 9 of majority

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.5%318 39.4%1213-1317
LAB 41.0%262 34.2%019-19243
LIB 7.6%12 11.3%62+416
UKIP 1.9%0 4.6%00+00
Green 1.7%1 4.3%00+01
SNP 3.1%35 4.0%170+1752
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%01-13
Other 0.7%0 1.6%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

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Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 25.0%010-103
LAB 27.1%7 16.0%05-52
LIB 6.8%4 9.0%02-22
UKIP 0.2%0 1.0%00+00
Green 0.2%0 0.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 48.0%170+1752
Other 0.3%0 1.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Renfrewshire East (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Airdrie and Shotts (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
94467Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathLesley Laird72,72163.520.252.224.92.00.00.00.00.8LABLAB
144417Edinburgh SouthIan Murray64,55374.117.041.35.50.00.035.30.00.9LABLAB
154406Glasgow North EastPaul Sweeney59,93253.010.230.44.40.00.054.20.00.8LABSNP
174386Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillHugh Gaffney71,19863.313.530.14.50.00.051.10.00.8LABSNP
176384Glasgow South WestChris Stephens62,99156.212.028.24.32.20.052.50.00.8SNPSNP
181379Glasgow CentralAlison Thewliss64,34655.911.226.35.30.00.056.50.00.8SNPSNP
191369Glasgow NorthPatrick Grady53,86362.111.122.77.21.30.056.40.01.2SNPSNP
192368Dunbartonshire WestMartin Docherty67,60265.214.425.64.60.00.054.50.00.8SNPSNP
204356Glasgow SouthStewart McDonald69,12664.415.524.65.60.80.052.70.00.8SNPSNP
204356Glasgow EastDavid Linden66,24254.617.526.44.00.00.050.50.01.6SNPSNP
206354Dundee WestChris Law62,64461.712.621.45.40.80.058.00.01.8SNPSNP
206354Glasgow North WestCarol Monaghan63,77360.915.224.05.90.00.054.10.00.8SNPSNP
209351Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil21,30169.615.823.97.50.00.052.00.00.8SNPSNP
210350Rutherglen and Hamilton WestGed Killen80,09863.517.725.56.60.00.048.70.01.5LABSNP
212348Edinburgh EastTommy Sheppard65,89666.015.822.96.60.00.054.00.00.8SNPSNP
212348GlenrothesPeter Grant66,37860.915.922.95.30.80.054.30.00.8SNPSNP
212348Motherwell and WishawMarion Fellows68,21561.518.825.74.60.00.050.20.00.8SNPSNP
214346InverclydeRonnie Cowan58,85366.418.725.54.90.00.050.20.00.8SNPSNP
218342Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthMhairi Black61,34468.016.722.85.50.00.052.10.02.9SNPSNP
222338Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastStuart McDonald66,55465.916.922.25.10.00.055.10.00.8SNPSNP
226334Airdrie and ShottsNeil Gray64,14659.220.425.14.50.00.049.30.00.8SNPSNP
238322MidlothianDanielle Rowley68,32866.322.724.46.10.00.046.00.00.8LABSNP
241319Dunfermline and West FifeDouglas Chapman75,67267.421.922.28.20.00.047.00.00.8SNPSNP
244316Aberdeen NorthKirsty Blackman62,13059.219.118.66.90.80.052.40.02.2SNPSNP
244316LivingstonHannah Bardell81,20864.721.621.15.20.00.051.40.00.8SNPSNP
253307East LothianMartin Whitfield79,09370.626.824.25.40.00.042.10.01.4LABSNP
254306East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowLisa Cameron80,44267.323.720.25.20.00.050.10.00.8SNPSNP
255305Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael34,16468.15.61.850.51.90.038.60.01.7LIBLIB
255305Edinburgh North and LeithDeidre Brock79,47371.223.619.77.31.00.047.60.00.9SNPSNP
255305Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthGavin Newlands67,43669.124.820.35.40.00.048.70.00.8SNPSNP
260300Linlithgow and East FalkirkMartyn Day86,18665.125.519.75.70.80.047.60.00.7SNPSNP
262298Kilmarnock and LoudounAlan Brown73,32763.423.917.64.40.00.053.40.00.7SNPSNP
262298FalkirkJohnny McNally82,24065.424.818.44.60.00.051.40.00.8SNPSNP
265295Dunbartonshire EastJo Swinson66,30078.111.74.642.60.00.040.40.00.7LIBLIB
276284Dundee EastStewart Hosie65,85465.224.515.06.00.00.053.70.00.7SNPSNP
276284Lanark and Hamilton EastAngela Crawley77,31365.330.320.34.70.00.043.90.00.8SNPSNP
291269Ayrshire North and ArranPatricia Gibson73,17464.828.416.44.60.00.049.90.00.7SNPSNP
302258Edinburgh South WestJoanna Cherry71,17869.429.815.76.50.80.046.50.00.7SNPSNP
302258Edinburgh WestChristine Jardine71,50073.819.04.936.30.00.038.80.00.9LIBSNP
307253Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossJamie Stone46,86865.919.02.637.80.70.039.20.00.7LIBSNP
307253Ayrshire CentralPhilippa Whitford68,99765.331.615.14.50.00.048.10.00.7SNPSNP
313247Ross Skye and LochaberIan Blackford53,63871.721.32.522.90.70.050.20.02.4SNPSNP
322238Fife North EastStephen Gethins58,68571.321.20.434.80.00.042.40.01.2SNPSNP
322238Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyDrew Hendry76,84468.726.96.114.30.70.050.10.01.8SNPSNP
327233Renfrewshire EastPaul Masterton70,06776.737.215.64.30.00.042.20.00.7CONSNP
331229StirlingStephen Kerr66,41574.334.211.45.60.00.047.40.01.4CONSNP
342218Ayr Carrick and CumnockBill Grant71,24164.937.313.04.10.00.044.90.00.7CONSNP
355205Argyll and ButeBrendan O'Hara67,23071.530.32.820.20.00.046.00.00.7SNPSNP
369191Ochil and South PerthshireLuke Graham76,76770.638.69.65.30.00.045.80.00.7CONSNP
370190Aberdeen SouthRoss Thomson64,96468.539.310.08.00.00.042.00.00.7CONSNP
380180Dumfries and GallowayAlister Jack74,20669.540.510.34.50.00.042.90.01.7CONSNP
420140GordonColin Clark78,53168.437.82.113.60.00.045.80.00.7CONSNP
440120Perth and North PerthshirePete Wishart71,74371.838.70.87.00.70.052.20.00.7SNPSNP
450110AngusKirstene Hair63,84063.042.33.25.30.00.048.60.00.7CONSNP
46299Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell67,67272.446.56.46.10.00.040.40.00.7CONCON
48971MorayDouglas Ross70,64967.444.71.34.30.00.048.70.01.1CONSNP
49170Aberdeenshire West and KincardineAndrew Bowie72,47771.245.01.410.60.00.042.30.00.7CONCON
50060Banff and BuchanDavid Duguid67,60161.645.00.45.40.00.048.50.00.6CONSNP
54318Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkJohn Lamont73,19171.550.90.46.50.00.041.60.00.6CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


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