The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.
| Party | 2017 Votes | 2017 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 43.5% | 318 | 41.0% | 21 | 7 | +14 | 332 |
| LAB | 41.0% | 262 | 34.0% | 0 | 28 | -28 | 234 |
| LIB | 7.6% | 12 | 10.0% | 5 | 0 | +5 | 17 |
| UKIP | 1.9% | 0 | 4.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green | 1.7% | 1 | 4.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| SNP | 3.1% | 35 | 3.5% | 10 | 0 | +10 | 45 |
| PlaidC | 0.5% | 4 | 0.5% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| Other | 0.7% | 0 | 3.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| N.Ire | 18 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 18 |
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| Party | 2017 Votes | 2017 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 28.6% | 13 | 22.0% | 0 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| LAB | 27.1% | 7 | 21.0% | 0 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
| LIB | 6.8% | 4 | 8.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 4 |
| UKIP | 0.2% | 0 | 4.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green | 0.2% | 0 | 4.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| SNP | 36.9% | 35 | 41.0% | 10 | 0 | +10 | 45 |
| Other | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | CON Seats | Seat | MP at 2017 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | UKIP % | Green % | SNP % | MIN % | OTH % | 2017 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 501 | Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath | Lesley Laird | 72,721 | 63.5 | 17.1 | 53.7 | 20.6 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 86 | 481 | Edinburgh South | Ian Murray | 64,553 | 74.1 | 16.8 | 48.8 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 26.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 98 | 468 | Glasgow North East | Paul Sweeney | 59,932 | 53.0 | 10.0 | 38.7 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 47.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 107 | 459 | Glasgow South West | Chris Stephens | 62,991 | 56.2 | 9.0 | 36.3 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 45.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 135 | 431 | Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill | Hugh Gaffney | 71,198 | 63.3 | 13.4 | 36.5 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 43.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 145 | 421 | Glasgow Central | Alison Thewliss | 64,346 | 55.9 | 11.1 | 32.3 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 48.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 147 | 419 | Glasgow North | Patrick Grady | 53,863 | 62.1 | 8.1 | 28.4 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 13.4 | 41.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 149 | 417 | Dundee West | Chris Law | 62,644 | 61.7 | 9.6 | 29.0 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 52.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 153 | 413 | Glasgow South | Stewart McDonald | 69,126 | 64.4 | 12.5 | 30.5 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 45.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 153 | 413 | Glenrothes | Peter Grant | 66,378 | 60.9 | 12.9 | 30.5 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 48.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 156 | 410 | Dunbartonshire West | Martin Docherty | 67,602 | 65.2 | 14.3 | 31.6 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 46.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 158 | 408 | Glasgow East | David Linden | 66,242 | 54.6 | 17.6 | 34.4 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 44.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 161 | 405 | Glasgow North West | Carol Monaghan | 63,773 | 60.9 | 15.1 | 31.7 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 47.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 164 | 402 | Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) | Angus MacNeil | 21,301 | 69.6 | 15.7 | 31.4 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 45.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 164 | 402 | Rutherglen and Hamilton West | Ged Killen | 80,098 | 63.5 | 17.8 | 33.4 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 42.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 168 | 398 | Motherwell and Wishaw | Marion Fellows | 68,215 | 61.5 | 18.6 | 33.5 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 43.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 171 | 395 | Inverclyde | Ronnie Cowan | 58,853 | 66.4 | 18.6 | 33.3 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 43.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 176 | 390 | Paisley and Renfrewshire South | Mhairi Black | 61,344 | 68.0 | 17.2 | 30.7 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 46.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 179 | 387 | Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East | Stuart McDonald | 66,554 | 65.9 | 16.8 | 29.7 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 48.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 179 | 387 | Edinburgh East | Tommy Sheppard | 65,896 | 66.0 | 15.7 | 28.6 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 46.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 188 | 378 | Airdrie and Shotts | Neil Gray | 64,146 | 59.2 | 20.3 | 31.0 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 41.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 190 | 376 | Midlothian | Danielle Rowley | 68,328 | 66.3 | 22.6 | 32.1 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 39.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 196 | 370 | Aberdeen North | Kirsty Blackman | 62,130 | 59.2 | 16.1 | 23.9 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 45.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 206 | 360 | Dunfermline and West Fife | Douglas Chapman | 75,672 | 67.4 | 21.8 | 27.8 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 39.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 210 | 356 | Livingston | Hannah Bardell | 81,208 | 64.7 | 21.5 | 26.6 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 44.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 210 | 356 | East Lothian | Martin Whitfield | 79,093 | 70.6 | 26.9 | 31.9 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 211 | 355 | Edinburgh North and Leith | Deidre Brock | 79,473 | 71.2 | 20.6 | 25.1 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 38.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 212 | 354 | Orkney and Shetland | Alistair Carmichael | 34,164 | 68.1 | 2.9 | 7.2 | 50.6 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 34.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 219 | 347 | Paisley and Renfrewshire North | Gavin Newlands | 67,436 | 69.1 | 24.7 | 27.6 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 42.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 221 | 345 | Linlithgow and East Falkirk | Martyn Day | 86,186 | 65.1 | 22.5 | 25.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 40.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 225 | 341 | East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow | Lisa Cameron | 80,442 | 67.3 | 23.6 | 25.6 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 42.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 229 | 337 | Kilmarnock and Loudoun | Alan Brown | 73,327 | 63.4 | 23.8 | 24.6 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 47.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 238 | 328 | Falkirk | Johnny McNally | 82,240 | 65.4 | 24.6 | 23.7 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 5.4 | 43.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 241 | 325 | Lanark and Hamilton East | Angela Crawley | 77,313 | 65.3 | 30.3 | 27.6 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 37.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 241 | 325 | Dundee East | Stewart Hosie | 65,854 | 65.2 | 24.5 | 21.8 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 48.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 244 | 322 | Dunbartonshire East | Jo Swinson | 66,300 | 78.1 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 41.8 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 34.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 255 | 311 | Edinburgh South West | Joanna Cherry | 71,178 | 69.4 | 26.7 | 20.7 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 39.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 257 | 309 | Ayrshire North and Arran | Patricia Gibson | 73,174 | 64.8 | 28.4 | 21.4 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 42.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 261 | 305 | Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross | Jamie Stone | 46,868 | 65.9 | 16.0 | 8.2 | 37.7 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 34.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 269 | 297 | Ayrshire Central | Philippa Whitford | 68,997 | 65.3 | 31.5 | 21.9 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 42.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 270 | 296 | Ross Skye and Lochaber | Ian Blackford | 53,638 | 71.7 | 18.2 | 8.2 | 23.1 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 46.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 273 | 293 | Edinburgh West | Christine Jardine | 71,500 | 73.8 | 19.1 | 8.8 | 35.5 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 32.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 291 | 275 | Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey | Drew Hendry | 76,844 | 68.7 | 23.9 | 10.1 | 13.6 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 44.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 295 | 272 | Renfrewshire East | Paul Masterton | 70,067 | 76.7 | 37.1 | 22.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 36.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 301 | 265 | Fife North East | Stephen Gethins | 58,685 | 71.3 | 21.3 | 5.7 | 34.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 38.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 308 | 258 | Ayr Carrick and Cumnock | Bill Grant | 71,241 | 64.9 | 37.3 | 19.6 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 39.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | SNP |
| 308 | 258 | Stirling | Stephen Kerr | 66,415 | 74.3 | 34.4 | 16.0 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 3.9 | 41.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | SNP |
| 321 | 245 | Argyll and Bute | Brendan O'Hara | 67,230 | 71.5 | 30.4 | 8.3 | 20.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 41.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 325 | 241 | Ochil and South Perthshire | Luke Graham | 76,767 | 70.6 | 38.6 | 15.8 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 40.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | SNP |
| 327 | 240 | Aberdeen South | Ross Thomson | 64,964 | 68.5 | 39.3 | 16.3 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 36.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 331 | 236 | Dumfries and Galloway | Alister Jack | 74,206 | 69.5 | 40.7 | 16.8 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 38.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 358 | 208 | Perth and North Perthshire | Pete Wishart | 71,743 | 71.8 | 35.7 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 47.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 366 | 200 | Gordon | Colin Clark | 78,531 | 68.4 | 37.8 | 7.6 | 13.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 41.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | SNP |
| 392 | 174 | Angus | Kirstene Hair | 63,840 | 63.0 | 42.3 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 43.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | SNP |
| 396 | 171 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | David Mundell | 67,672 | 72.4 | 46.5 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 35.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 432 | 135 | Moray | Douglas Ross | 70,649 | 67.4 | 44.8 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 44.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 433 | 134 | Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | Andrew Bowie | 72,477 | 71.2 | 45.0 | 6.8 | 10.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 37.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 446 | 121 | Banff and Buchan | David Duguid | 67,601 | 61.6 | 45.0 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 44.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 504 | 63 | Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | John Lamont | 73,191 | 71.5 | 50.8 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 37.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.
© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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