User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative short 4 of majority

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.5%318 43.5%62+4322
LAB 41.0%262 41.0%66+0262
LIB 7.6%12 7.6%00+012
UKIP 1.9%0 1.9%00+00
Green 1.7%1 1.7%00+01
SNP 3.1%35 3.1%26-431
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%00+04
Other 0.7%0 0.6%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

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Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 23.9%02-211
LAB 27.1%7 29.0%60+613
LIB 6.8%4 6.9%00+04
UKIP 0.2%0 0.2%00+00
Green 0.2%0 0.2%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 37.7%26-431
Other 0.3%0 2.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Argyll and Bute (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ayrshire North and Arran (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
62523Edinburgh SouthIan Murray64,55374.114.956.93.00.00.023.30.01.9LABLAB
66519Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathLesley Laird72,72163.518.860.018.11.20.00.00.01.9LABLAB
96489Glasgow North EastPaul Sweeney59,93253.09.844.22.10.00.042.70.01.2LABLAB
101484Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillHugh Gaffney71,19863.312.344.22.20.00.039.80.01.6LABLAB
116469Glasgow South WestChris Stephens62,99156.211.842.12.01.40.041.30.01.5SNPLAB
126458Glasgow CentralAlison Thewliss64,34655.910.539.83.00.00.045.30.01.3SNPSNP
141443Dunbartonshire WestMartin Docherty67,60265.213.039.42.40.00.043.60.01.6SNPSNP
148436Glasgow NorthPatrick Grady53,86362.111.136.33.60.08.738.40.01.8SNPSNP
150435Glasgow EastDavid Linden66,24254.615.640.51.70.00.039.60.02.6SNPLAB
153431Glasgow North WestCarol Monaghan63,77360.913.637.73.70.00.043.30.01.7SNPSNP
154430Glasgow SouthStewart McDonald69,12664.414.438.53.40.00.041.90.01.8SNPSNP
155430Rutherglen and Hamilton WestGed Killen80,09863.515.739.54.40.00.037.80.02.6LABLAB
156429Motherwell and WishawMarion Fellows68,21561.516.639.82.30.00.039.40.01.9SNPLAB
158427InverclydeRonnie Cowan58,85366.416.639.52.60.00.039.30.01.9SNPLAB
159425Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil21,30169.614.637.35.30.00.041.30.01.6SNPSNP
159425Edinburgh EastTommy Sheppard65,89666.014.036.54.40.00.043.30.01.8SNPSNP
159425Dundee WestChris Law62,64461.712.234.73.20.00.047.30.02.6SNPSNP
161423GlenrothesPeter Grant66,37860.914.736.73.10.00.043.60.01.9SNPSNP
162422Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthMhairi Black61,34468.014.736.53.30.00.041.50.04.0SNPSNP
168417Airdrie and ShottsNeil Gray64,14659.218.339.12.30.00.038.40.01.9SNPLAB
170414Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastStuart McDonald66,55465.915.235.73.00.00.044.40.01.7SNPSNP
188397MidlothianDanielle Rowley68,32866.320.538.43.90.00.035.20.01.9LABLAB
192392Dunfermline and West FifeDouglas Chapman75,67267.419.835.96.10.00.036.40.01.9SNPSNP
196388LivingstonHannah Bardell81,20864.719.534.73.00.00.040.90.01.9SNPSNP
198386Aberdeen NorthKirsty Blackman62,13059.217.832.04.80.00.042.10.03.3SNPSNP
203382East LothianMartin Whitfield79,09370.624.738.13.30.00.031.40.02.6LABLAB
207377East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowLisa Cameron80,44267.321.633.73.10.00.039.70.01.9SNPSNP
212372Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthGavin Newlands67,43669.122.633.93.30.00.038.30.01.9SNPSNP
213371Edinburgh North and LeithDeidre Brock79,47371.222.333.34.70.02.734.90.02.0SNPSNP
220364FalkirkJohnny McNally82,24065.422.631.92.20.01.539.80.02.0SNPSNP
222362Kilmarnock and LoudounAlan Brown73,32763.421.830.92.30.00.043.20.01.9SNPSNP
222362Linlithgow and East FalkirkMartyn Day86,18665.124.233.23.60.00.037.20.01.9SNPSNP
239345Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael34,16468.16.612.348.71.20.029.40.01.9LIBLIB
240345Lanark and Hamilton EastAngela Crawley77,31365.328.233.92.60.00.033.40.01.9SNPLAB
240344Dundee EastStewart Hosie65,85465.222.528.03.90.00.043.70.01.9SNPSNP
242342Dunbartonshire EastJo Swinson66,30078.111.016.040.70.00.030.90.01.4LIBLIB
249335Ayrshire North and ArranPatricia Gibson73,17464.826.329.52.50.00.039.70.01.9SNPSNP
260324Edinburgh South WestJoanna Cherry71,17869.428.528.84.40.00.036.40.01.9SNPSNP
262322Edinburgh WestChristine Jardine71,50073.817.016.934.40.00.029.50.02.2LIBLIB
270314Ayrshire CentralPhilippa Whitford68,99765.329.528.12.50.00.038.00.01.9SNPSNP
278306Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossJamie Stone46,86865.917.714.435.90.00.030.00.01.9LIBLIB
291293Ross Skye and LochaberIan Blackford53,63871.720.014.221.10.00.041.10.03.7SNPSNP
298287Renfrewshire EastPaul Masterton70,06776.735.128.72.20.00.032.10.01.9CONCON
304280Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyDrew Hendry76,84468.725.618.212.40.00.040.70.03.1SNPSNP
304280Fife North EastStephen Gethins58,68571.319.211.633.00.00.033.70.02.4SNPSNP
305279StirlingStephen Kerr66,41574.332.224.13.60.00.037.60.02.6CONSNP
314271Ayr Carrick and CumnockBill Grant71,24164.935.225.92.00.00.035.00.01.9CONCON
327257Argyll and ButeBrendan O'Hara67,23071.528.314.618.30.00.036.80.01.9SNPSNP
331254Ochil and South PerthshireLuke Graham76,76770.636.622.03.40.00.036.10.01.9CONCON
333252Aberdeen SouthRoss Thomson64,96468.537.222.66.00.00.032.30.01.9CONCON
337248Dumfries and GallowayAlister Jack74,20669.538.422.92.60.00.033.20.03.0CONCON
370214GordonColin Clark78,53168.435.813.811.80.00.036.70.01.9CONSNP
389195Perth and North PerthshirePete Wishart71,74371.837.412.45.20.00.043.20.01.9SNPSNP
393192AngusKirstene Hair63,84063.040.215.03.40.00.039.40.01.9CONCON
401184Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell67,67272.444.518.64.10.00.030.90.01.9CONCON
426159MorayDouglas Ross70,64967.442.613.02.40.00.039.70.02.3CONCON
431154Aberdeenshire West and KincardineAndrew Bowie72,47771.242.913.18.80.00.033.30.01.9CONCON
445140Banff and BuchanDavid Duguid67,60161.643.111.53.60.00.039.90.01.9CONCON
51075Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkJohn Lamont73,19171.549.010.64.90.00.033.60.01.9CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


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