User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative short 4 of majority

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.5%318 43.5%62+4322
LAB 41.0%262 41.0%66+0262
LIB 7.6%12 7.6%00+012
UKIP 1.9%0 1.9%00+00
Green 1.7%1 1.7%00+01
SNP 3.1%35 3.1%26-431
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%00+04
Other 0.7%0 0.6%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

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Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 23.9%02-211
LAB 27.1%7 29.0%60+613
LIB 6.8%4 6.9%00+04
UKIP 0.2%0 0.2%00+00
Green 0.2%0 0.2%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 37.7%26-431
Other 0.3%0 2.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Argyll and Bute (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ayrshire North and Arran (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
62523Edinburgh SouthIan Murray64,55374.114.956.
66519Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathLesley Laird72,72163.518.860.
96489Glasgow North EastPaul Sweeney59,93253.09.844.
101484Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillHugh Gaffney71,19863.312.344.
116469Glasgow South WestChris Stephens62,99156.211.842.
126458Glasgow CentralAlison Thewliss64,34655.910.539.
141443Dunbartonshire WestMartin Docherty67,60265.
148436Glasgow NorthPatrick Grady53,86362.
150435Glasgow EastDavid Linden66,24254.615.640.
153431Glasgow North WestCarol Monaghan63,77360.913.637.
154430Glasgow SouthStewart McDonald69,12664.414.438.
155430Rutherglen and Hamilton WestGed Killen80,09863.515.739.
156429Motherwell and WishawMarion Fellows68,21561.516.639.
158427InverclydeRonnie Cowan58,85366.416.639.
159425Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil21,30169.614.637.
159425Edinburgh EastTommy Sheppard65,89666.
159425Dundee WestChris Law62,64461.712.
161423GlenrothesPeter Grant66,37860.914.736.
162422Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthMhairi Black61,34468.014.736.
168417Airdrie and ShottsNeil Gray64,14659.218.339.
170414Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastStuart McDonald66,55465.915.
188397MidlothianDanielle Rowley68,32866.320.538.
192392Dunfermline and West FifeDouglas Chapman75,67267.419.835.
196388LivingstonHannah Bardell81,20864.719.534.
198386Aberdeen NorthKirsty Blackman62,13059.217.832.
203382East LothianMartin Whitfield79,09370.624.738.
207377East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowLisa Cameron80,44267.321.633.
212372Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthGavin Newlands67,43669.122.633.
213371Edinburgh North and LeithDeidre Brock79,47371.222.333.
220364FalkirkJohnny McNally82,24065.422.631.
222362Kilmarnock and LoudounAlan Brown73,32763.421.830.
222362Linlithgow and East FalkirkMartyn Day86,18665.
239345Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael34,16468.16.612.348.
240345Lanark and Hamilton EastAngela Crawley77,31365.328.
240344Dundee EastStewart Hosie65,85465.222.528.
242342Dunbartonshire EastJo Swinson66,30078.
249335Ayrshire North and ArranPatricia Gibson73,17464.826.329.
260324Edinburgh South WestJoanna Cherry71,17869.428.528.
262322Edinburgh WestChristine Jardine71,50073.817.016.934.
270314Ayrshire CentralPhilippa Whitford68,99765.329.528.
278306Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossJamie Stone46,86865.917.714.435.
291293Ross Skye and LochaberIan Blackford53,63871.720.
298287Renfrewshire EastPaul Masterton70,06776.735.
304280Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyDrew Hendry76,84468.725.618.
304280Fife North EastStephen Gethins58,68571.319.211.633.
305279StirlingStephen Kerr66,41574.332.
314271Ayr Carrick and CumnockBill Grant71,24164.935.
327257Argyll and ButeBrendan O'Hara67,23071.528.314.618.
331254Ochil and South PerthshireLuke Graham76,76770.636.622.
333252Aberdeen SouthRoss Thomson64,96468.537.
337248Dumfries and GallowayAlister Jack74,20669.538.422.
370214GordonColin Clark78,53168.435.813.811.
389195Perth and North PerthshirePete Wishart71,74371.837.412.
393192AngusKirstene Hair63,84063.
401184Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell67,67272.444.518.
426159MorayDouglas Ross70,64967.442.613.
431154Aberdeenshire West and KincardineAndrew Bowie72,47771.242.913.
445140Banff and BuchanDavid Duguid67,60161.643.
51075Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkJohn Lamont73,19171.549.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.

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