User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative short 4 of majority

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.5%318 43.5%62+4322
LAB 41.0%262 41.0%66+0262
LIB 7.6%12 7.6%00+012
UKIP 1.9%0 1.9%00+00
Green 1.7%1 1.7%00+01
SNP 3.1%35 3.1%26-431
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%00+04
Other 0.7%0 0.6%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

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Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 23.9%02-211
LAB 27.1%7 29.0%60+613
LIB 6.8%4 6.9%00+04
UKIP 0.2%0 0.2%00+00
Green 0.2%0 0.2%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 37.7%26-431
Other 0.3%0 2.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Argyll and Bute (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ayrshire North and Arran (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
62523Edinburgh SouthIan Murray64,55374.115.056.83.00.00.023.30.01.8LABLAB
67518Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathLesley Laird72,72163.519.059.918.11.20.00.00.01.8LABLAB
86499Glasgow North EastPaul Sweeney59,93253.08.244.92.10.00.043.00.01.8LABLAB
99486Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillHugh Gaffney71,19863.311.544.52.20.00.039.90.01.8LABLAB
104481Glasgow South WestChris Stephens62,99156.210.942.42.01.40.041.50.01.8SNPLAB
108476Glasgow CentralAlison Thewliss64,34655.99.240.43.00.00.045.50.01.8SNPSNP
139445Dunbartonshire WestMartin Docherty67,60265.212.539.62.40.00.043.70.01.8SNPSNP
139445Glasgow NorthPatrick Grady53,86362.110.036.83.60.08.738.60.02.2SNPSNP
149436Glasgow EastDavid Linden66,24254.615.540.51.70.00.039.60.02.7SNPLAB
151433Glasgow North WestCarol Monaghan63,77360.913.337.83.70.00.043.30.01.8SNPSNP
153431Glasgow SouthStewart McDonald69,12664.414.438.53.40.00.041.90.01.8SNPSNP
155430Rutherglen and Hamilton WestGed Killen80,09863.515.739.54.40.00.037.80.02.6LABLAB
155429Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil21,30169.613.937.65.30.00.041.40.01.8SNPSNP
155429Dundee WestChris Law62,64461.711.535.03.20.00.047.50.02.9SNPSNP
158427Motherwell and WishawMarion Fellows68,21561.516.839.72.30.00.039.30.01.8SNPLAB
158426Edinburgh EastTommy Sheppard65,89666.013.936.64.40.00.043.30.01.8SNPSNP
159426InverclydeRonnie Cowan58,85366.416.839.42.60.00.039.30.01.8SNPLAB
162422GlenrothesPeter Grant66,37860.914.836.63.10.00.043.60.01.8SNPSNP
162422Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthMhairi Black61,34468.014.836.53.30.00.041.50.03.9SNPSNP
167417Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastStuart McDonald66,55465.914.935.83.00.00.044.40.01.8SNPSNP
170415Airdrie and ShottsNeil Gray64,14659.218.539.02.30.00.038.40.01.8SNPLAB
188397MidlothianDanielle Rowley68,32866.320.738.33.90.00.035.20.01.8LABLAB
195389Dunfermline and West FifeDouglas Chapman75,67267.420.035.86.10.00.036.30.01.8SNPSNP
197387LivingstonHannah Bardell81,20864.719.734.63.00.00.040.90.01.8SNPSNP
202382Aberdeen NorthKirsty Blackman62,13059.218.031.94.70.00.042.10.03.3SNPSNP
203382East LothianMartin Whitfield79,09370.624.938.03.30.00.031.40.02.5LABLAB
209375East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowLisa Cameron80,44267.321.833.63.10.00.039.70.01.8SNPSNP
213371Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthGavin Newlands67,43669.122.833.83.30.00.038.20.01.8SNPSNP
217367Edinburgh North and LeithDeidre Brock79,47371.222.533.24.70.02.734.90.02.0SNPSNP
222362FalkirkJohnny McNally82,24065.422.831.82.20.01.539.80.01.9SNPSNP
223361Kilmarnock and LoudounAlan Brown73,32763.422.030.82.30.00.043.10.01.8SNPSNP
224360Linlithgow and East FalkirkMartyn Day86,18665.124.433.13.60.00.037.10.01.8SNPSNP
226358Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael34,16468.14.613.148.71.20.029.70.02.6LIBLIB
235349Dunbartonshire EastJo Swinson66,30078.19.916.540.70.00.031.10.01.8LIBLIB
241344Lanark and Hamilton EastAngela Crawley77,31365.328.433.82.50.00.033.40.01.8SNPLAB
241343Dundee EastStewart Hosie65,85465.222.728.03.90.00.043.60.01.8SNPSNP
249335Ayrshire North and ArranPatricia Gibson73,17464.826.529.42.50.00.039.70.01.8SNPSNP
262322Edinburgh South WestJoanna Cherry71,17869.428.728.74.40.00.036.40.01.8SNPSNP
265319Edinburgh WestChristine Jardine71,50073.817.216.934.40.00.029.40.02.1LIBLIB
272312Ayrshire CentralPhilippa Whitford68,99765.329.728.02.50.00.038.00.01.8SNPSNP
282302Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossJamie Stone46,86865.917.914.335.90.00.030.00.01.8LIBLIB
296288Ross Skye and LochaberIan Blackford53,63871.720.214.121.10.00.041.10.03.6SNPSNP
298287Renfrewshire EastPaul Masterton70,06776.735.328.62.20.00.032.00.01.8CONCON
304280Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyDrew Hendry76,84468.725.818.112.40.00.040.70.03.0SNPSNP
304280Fife North EastStephen Gethins58,68571.319.411.633.00.00.033.70.02.4SNPSNP
306278StirlingStephen Kerr66,41574.332.324.03.60.00.037.60.02.5CONSNP
314271Ayr Carrick and CumnockBill Grant71,24164.935.425.82.00.00.034.90.01.8CONCON
328256Argyll and ButeBrendan O'Hara67,23071.528.514.518.30.00.036.80.01.8SNPSNP
332253Ochil and South PerthshireLuke Graham76,76770.636.822.03.40.00.036.10.01.8CONCON
333252Aberdeen SouthRoss Thomson64,96468.537.422.56.00.00.032.30.01.8CONCON
339246Dumfries and GallowayAlister Jack74,20669.538.622.82.50.00.033.20.02.9CONCON
371213GordonColin Clark78,53168.436.013.711.70.00.036.70.01.8CONSNP
392192Perth and North PerthshirePete Wishart71,74371.837.612.35.20.00.043.10.01.8SNPSNP
395190AngusKirstene Hair63,84063.040.415.03.40.00.039.40.01.8CONCON
403182Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell67,67272.444.718.54.10.00.030.90.01.8CONCON
431154MorayDouglas Ross70,64967.442.812.92.40.00.039.60.02.3CONCON
433152Aberdeenshire West and KincardineAndrew Bowie72,47771.243.113.08.80.00.033.30.01.8CONCON
448137Banff and BuchanDavid Duguid67,60161.643.311.43.60.00.039.90.01.8CONCON
51174Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkJohn Lamont73,19171.549.210.64.90.00.033.60.01.8CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


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