User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative short 4 of majority

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.5%318 43.5%62+4322
LAB 41.0%262 41.0%66+0262
LIB 7.6%12 7.6%00+012
UKIP 1.9%0 1.9%00+00
Green 1.7%1 1.7%00+01
SNP 3.1%35 3.1%26-431
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%00+04
Other 0.7%0 0.6%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

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Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 23.9%02-211
LAB 27.1%7 29.0%60+613
LIB 6.8%4 6.9%00+04
UKIP 0.2%0 0.2%00+00
Green 0.2%0 0.2%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 37.7%26-431
Other 0.3%0 2.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Argyll and Bute (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ayrshire North and Arran (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
62523Edinburgh SouthIan Murray64,55374.
67518Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathLesley Laird72,72163.519.059.918.
86499Glasgow North EastPaul Sweeney59,93253.
99486Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillHugh Gaffney71,19863.311.544.
104481Glasgow South WestChris Stephens62,99156.210.942.
108476Glasgow CentralAlison Thewliss64,34655.
139445Dunbartonshire WestMartin Docherty67,60265.212.539.
139445Glasgow NorthPatrick Grady53,86362.
149436Glasgow EastDavid Linden66,24254.615.540.
151433Glasgow North WestCarol Monaghan63,77360.913.337.
153431Glasgow SouthStewart McDonald69,12664.414.438.
155430Rutherglen and Hamilton WestGed Killen80,09863.515.739.
155429Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil21,30169.613.937.
155429Dundee WestChris Law62,64461.711.535.
158427Motherwell and WishawMarion Fellows68,21561.516.839.
158426Edinburgh EastTommy Sheppard65,89666.013.936.
159426InverclydeRonnie Cowan58,85366.416.839.
162422GlenrothesPeter Grant66,37860.914.836.
162422Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthMhairi Black61,34468.014.836.
167417Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastStuart McDonald66,55465.914.935.
170415Airdrie and ShottsNeil Gray64,14659.218.539.
188397MidlothianDanielle Rowley68,32866.320.738.
195389Dunfermline and West FifeDouglas Chapman75,67267.420.
197387LivingstonHannah Bardell81,20864.719.734.
202382Aberdeen NorthKirsty Blackman62,13059.
203382East LothianMartin Whitfield79,09370.624.938.
209375East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowLisa Cameron80,44267.321.833.
213371Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthGavin Newlands67,43669.122.833.
217367Edinburgh North and LeithDeidre Brock79,47371.222.533.
222362FalkirkJohnny McNally82,24065.422.831.
223361Kilmarnock and LoudounAlan Brown73,32763.422.
224360Linlithgow and East FalkirkMartyn Day86,18665.124.433.
226358Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael34,16468.14.613.
235349Dunbartonshire EastJo Swinson66,30078.19.916.540.
241344Lanark and Hamilton EastAngela Crawley77,31365.328.433.
241343Dundee EastStewart Hosie65,85465.222.728.
249335Ayrshire North and ArranPatricia Gibson73,17464.826.529.
262322Edinburgh South WestJoanna Cherry71,17869.428.728.
265319Edinburgh WestChristine Jardine71,50073.817.216.934.
272312Ayrshire CentralPhilippa Whitford68,99765.329.728.
282302Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossJamie Stone46,86865.917.914.335.
296288Ross Skye and LochaberIan Blackford53,63871.720.
298287Renfrewshire EastPaul Masterton70,06776.735.328.
304280Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyDrew Hendry76,84468.725.818.
304280Fife North EastStephen Gethins58,68571.319.411.633.
306278StirlingStephen Kerr66,41574.332.324.
314271Ayr Carrick and CumnockBill Grant71,24164.935.425.
328256Argyll and ButeBrendan O'Hara67,23071.528.514.518.
332253Ochil and South PerthshireLuke Graham76,76770.636.822.
333252Aberdeen SouthRoss Thomson64,96468.537.422.
339246Dumfries and GallowayAlister Jack74,20669.538.622.
371213GordonColin Clark78,53168.436.013.711.
392192Perth and North PerthshirePete Wishart71,74371.837.612.
395190AngusKirstene Hair63,84063.040.415.
403182Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell67,67272.444.718.
431154MorayDouglas Ross70,64967.442.812.
433152Aberdeenshire West and KincardineAndrew Bowie72,47771.
448137Banff and BuchanDavid Duguid67,60161.643.311.
51174Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkJohn Lamont73,19171.549.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.

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