Election Prediction

The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative short 4 of majority

Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Edinburgh South' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Argyll and Bute (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ayrshire North and Arran (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	43.5%	318	43.5%	6	2	+4	322
LAB	41.0%	262	41.0%	6	6	+0	262
LIB	7.6%	12	7.6%	0	0	+0	12
UKIP	1.9%	0	1.9%	0	0	+0	0
Green	1.7%	1	1.7%	0	0	+0	1
SNP	3.1%	35	3.1%	2	6	-4	31
PlaidC	0.5%	4	0.5%	0	0	+0	4
Other	0.7%	0	0.6%	0	0	+0	0
N.Ire		18		0	0	+0	18

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	28.6%	13	23.9%	0	2	-2	11
LAB	27.1%	7	29.0%	6	0	+6	13
LIB	6.8%	4	6.9%	0	0	+0	4
UKIP	0.2%	0	0.2%	0	0	+0	0
Green	0.2%	0	0.2%	0	0	+0	0
SNP	36.9%	35	37.7%	2	6	-4	31
Other	0.3%	0	2.1%	0	0	+0	0

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	UKIP %	Green %	SNP %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
62	523	Edinburgh South	Ian Murray	64,553	74.1	15.0	56.8	3.0	0.0	0.0	23.3	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
67	518	Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath	Lesley Laird	72,721	63.5	19.0	59.9	18.1	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
86	499	Glasgow North East	Paul Sweeney	59,932	53.0	8.2	44.9	2.1	0.0	0.0	43.0	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
99	486	Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill	Hugh Gaffney	71,198	63.3	11.5	44.5	2.2	0.0	0.0	39.9	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
104	481	Glasgow South West	Chris Stephens	62,991	56.2	10.9	42.4	2.0	1.4	0.0	41.5	0.0	1.8	SNP	LAB
108	476	Glasgow Central	Alison Thewliss	64,346	55.9	9.2	40.4	3.0	0.0	0.0	45.5	0.0	1.8	SNP	SNP
139	445	Dunbartonshire West	Martin Docherty	67,602	65.2	12.5	39.6	2.4	0.0	0.0	43.7	0.0	1.8	SNP	SNP
139	445	Glasgow North	Patrick Grady	53,863	62.1	10.0	36.8	3.6	0.0	8.7	38.6	0.0	2.2	SNP	SNP
149	436	Glasgow East	David Linden	66,242	54.6	15.5	40.5	1.7	0.0	0.0	39.6	0.0	2.7	SNP	LAB
151	433	Glasgow North West	Carol Monaghan	63,773	60.9	13.3	37.8	3.7	0.0	0.0	43.3	0.0	1.8	SNP	SNP
153	431	Glasgow South	Stewart McDonald	69,126	64.4	14.4	38.5	3.4	0.0	0.0	41.9	0.0	1.8	SNP	SNP
155	430	Rutherglen and Hamilton West	Ged Killen	80,098	63.5	15.7	39.5	4.4	0.0	0.0	37.8	0.0	2.6	LAB	LAB
155	429	Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)	Angus MacNeil	21,301	69.6	13.9	37.6	5.3	0.0	0.0	41.4	0.0	1.8	SNP	SNP
155	429	Dundee West	Chris Law	62,644	61.7	11.5	35.0	3.2	0.0	0.0	47.5	0.0	2.9	SNP	SNP
158	427	Motherwell and Wishaw	Marion Fellows	68,215	61.5	16.8	39.7	2.3	0.0	0.0	39.3	0.0	1.8	SNP	LAB
158	426	Edinburgh East	Tommy Sheppard	65,896	66.0	13.9	36.6	4.4	0.0	0.0	43.3	0.0	1.8	SNP	SNP
159	426	Inverclyde	Ronnie Cowan	58,853	66.4	16.8	39.4	2.6	0.0	0.0	39.3	0.0	1.8	SNP	LAB
162	422	Glenrothes	Peter Grant	66,378	60.9	14.8	36.6	3.1	0.0	0.0	43.6	0.0	1.8	SNP	SNP
162	422	Paisley and Renfrewshire South	Mhairi Black	61,344	68.0	14.8	36.5	3.3	0.0	0.0	41.5	0.0	3.9	SNP	SNP
167	417	Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East	Stuart McDonald	66,554	65.9	14.9	35.8	3.0	0.0	0.0	44.4	0.0	1.8	SNP	SNP
170	415	Airdrie and Shotts	Neil Gray	64,146	59.2	18.5	39.0	2.3	0.0	0.0	38.4	0.0	1.8	SNP	LAB
188	397	Midlothian	Danielle Rowley	68,328	66.3	20.7	38.3	3.9	0.0	0.0	35.2	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
195	389	Dunfermline and West Fife	Douglas Chapman	75,672	67.4	20.0	35.8	6.1	0.0	0.0	36.3	0.0	1.8	SNP	SNP
197	387	Livingston	Hannah Bardell	81,208	64.7	19.7	34.6	3.0	0.0	0.0	40.9	0.0	1.8	SNP	SNP
202	382	Aberdeen North	Kirsty Blackman	62,130	59.2	18.0	31.9	4.7	0.0	0.0	42.1	0.0	3.3	SNP	SNP
203	382	East Lothian	Martin Whitfield	79,093	70.6	24.9	38.0	3.3	0.0	0.0	31.4	0.0	2.5	LAB	LAB
209	375	East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow	Lisa Cameron	80,442	67.3	21.8	33.6	3.1	0.0	0.0	39.7	0.0	1.8	SNP	SNP
213	371	Paisley and Renfrewshire North	Gavin Newlands	67,436	69.1	22.8	33.8	3.3	0.0	0.0	38.2	0.0	1.8	SNP	SNP
217	367	Edinburgh North and Leith	Deidre Brock	79,473	71.2	22.5	33.2	4.7	0.0	2.7	34.9	0.0	2.0	SNP	SNP
222	362	Falkirk	Johnny McNally	82,240	65.4	22.8	31.8	2.2	0.0	1.5	39.8	0.0	1.9	SNP	SNP
223	361	Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Alan Brown	73,327	63.4	22.0	30.8	2.3	0.0	0.0	43.1	0.0	1.8	SNP	SNP
224	360	Linlithgow and East Falkirk	Martyn Day	86,186	65.1	24.4	33.1	3.6	0.0	0.0	37.1	0.0	1.8	SNP	SNP
226	358	Orkney and Shetland	Alistair Carmichael	34,164	68.1	4.6	13.1	48.7	1.2	0.0	29.7	0.0	2.6	LIB	LIB
235	349	Dunbartonshire East	Jo Swinson	66,300	78.1	9.9	16.5	40.7	0.0	0.0	31.1	0.0	1.8	LIB	LIB
241	344	Lanark and Hamilton East	Angela Crawley	77,313	65.3	28.4	33.8	2.5	0.0	0.0	33.4	0.0	1.8	SNP	LAB
241	343	Dundee East	Stewart Hosie	65,854	65.2	22.7	28.0	3.9	0.0	0.0	43.6	0.0	1.8	SNP	SNP
249	335	Ayrshire North and Arran	Patricia Gibson	73,174	64.8	26.5	29.4	2.5	0.0	0.0	39.7	0.0	1.8	SNP	SNP
262	322	Edinburgh South West	Joanna Cherry	71,178	69.4	28.7	28.7	4.4	0.0	0.0	36.4	0.0	1.8	SNP	SNP
265	319	Edinburgh West	Christine Jardine	71,500	73.8	17.2	16.9	34.4	0.0	0.0	29.4	0.0	2.1	LIB	LIB
272	312	Ayrshire Central	Philippa Whitford	68,997	65.3	29.7	28.0	2.5	0.0	0.0	38.0	0.0	1.8	SNP	SNP
282	302	Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross	Jamie Stone	46,868	65.9	17.9	14.3	35.9	0.0	0.0	30.0	0.0	1.8	LIB	LIB
296	288	Ross Skye and Lochaber	Ian Blackford	53,638	71.7	20.2	14.1	21.1	0.0	0.0	41.1	0.0	3.6	SNP	SNP
298	287	Renfrewshire East	Paul Masterton	70,067	76.7	35.3	28.6	2.2	0.0	0.0	32.0	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
304	280	Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey	Drew Hendry	76,844	68.7	25.8	18.1	12.4	0.0	0.0	40.7	0.0	3.0	SNP	SNP
304	280	Fife North East	Stephen Gethins	58,685	71.3	19.4	11.6	33.0	0.0	0.0	33.7	0.0	2.4	SNP	SNP
306	278	Stirling	Stephen Kerr	66,415	74.3	32.3	24.0	3.6	0.0	0.0	37.6	0.0	2.5	CON	SNP
314	271	Ayr Carrick and Cumnock	Bill Grant	71,241	64.9	35.4	25.8	2.0	0.0	0.0	34.9	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
328	256	Argyll and Bute	Brendan O'Hara	67,230	71.5	28.5	14.5	18.3	0.0	0.0	36.8	0.0	1.8	SNP	SNP
332	253	Ochil and South Perthshire	Luke Graham	76,767	70.6	36.8	22.0	3.4	0.0	0.0	36.1	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
333	252	Aberdeen South	Ross Thomson	64,964	68.5	37.4	22.5	6.0	0.0	0.0	32.3	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
339	246	Dumfries and Galloway	Alister Jack	74,206	69.5	38.6	22.8	2.5	0.0	0.0	33.2	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
371	213	Gordon	Colin Clark	78,531	68.4	36.0	13.7	11.7	0.0	0.0	36.7	0.0	1.8	CON	SNP
392	192	Perth and North Perthshire	Pete Wishart	71,743	71.8	37.6	12.3	5.2	0.0	0.0	43.1	0.0	1.8	SNP	SNP
395	190	Angus	Kirstene Hair	63,840	63.0	40.4	15.0	3.4	0.0	0.0	39.4	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
403	182	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	David Mundell	67,672	72.4	44.7	18.5	4.1	0.0	0.0	30.9	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
431	154	Moray	Douglas Ross	70,649	67.4	42.8	12.9	2.4	0.0	0.0	39.6	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
433	152	Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	Andrew Bowie	72,477	71.2	43.1	13.0	8.8	0.0	0.0	33.3	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
448	137	Banff and Buchan	David Duguid	67,601	61.6	43.3	11.4	3.6	0.0	0.0	39.9	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
511	74	Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	John Lamont	73,191	71.5	49.2	10.6	4.9	0.0	0.0	33.6	0.0	1.8	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.

User-defined Prediction

National Prediction: Conservative short 4 of majority

Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

List of Scotland seats with predictions