Aberdeen South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Aberdeen South: Overview

 Projection: SNP seat 

Implied MP at 2019: Stephen Flynn  (SNP)
County/Area: Grampian (Scotland)
Electorate: 79,885
Turnout: 67.9%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
SNP24,89045.9%
CON18,41633.9%
LIB5,82110.7%
LAB4,7468.7%
UKIP2100.4%
Green1850.3%
SNP Majority6,47411.9%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Aberdeen South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Aberdeen South constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017CONSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position15° Left23° Left
National Position25° Glo15° Glo
Social Position21° Lib13° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %34%38%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health57%52%48%
UK Born82%93%88%
Good Education50%36%39%
Good Job57%49%51%
High SEC61%55%51%
Average Age44.348.748.5
ABC1 Class65%50%54%

Aberdeen South ranks #552 for "Leave", #529 for "Right", #571 for "National" and #593 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Aberdeen South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Aberdeen South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Aberdeen South

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Aberdeen North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Aberdeen North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Aberdeen NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AberdeenDyce / Bucksburn / Danestone2,611Aberdeen North401981174338867001,564
AberdeenBridge of Don1,510Aberdeen North2462471221952300905
AberdeenKingswells / Sheddocksley9,178Aberdeen North1,3514105081501312,945005,495
AberdeenNorthfield10,768Aberdeen North1,0351,0713751711503,645006,447
AberdeenHilton / Stockethill9,679Aberdeen North1,1119443801591393,063005,796
AberdeenTillydrone / Seaton / Old Aberdeen11,066Aberdeen North1,1041,2884681791563,431006,626
AberdeenMidstocket / Rosemount5,911Aberdeen North;
Aberdeen South
81829827294821,974003,538
AberdeenGeorge St / Harbour10,841Aberdeen South1,2677935991771553,500006,491
AberdeenHazlehead / Ashley / Queens Cross884Aberdeen South1981154111024500529
AberdeenTorry / Ferryhill41Aberdeen South53211130025
 Total62,489 7,5364,9402,8461,00788120,2060037,416

The full details of these calculations are given on the Aberdeen North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Aberdeen South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Aberdeen South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Aberdeen SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AberdeenKingswells / Sheddocksley164Aberdeen North361013005600115
AberdeenMidstocket / Rosemount4,185Aberdeen South799301297001,509002,906
AberdeenGeorge St / Harbour716Aberdeen South13366540024400497
AberdeenLower Deeside10,634Aberdeen South3,544275811002,755007,385
AberdeenHazlehead / Ashley / Queens Cross12,111Aberdeen South3,7163121,041003,341008,410
AberdeenAiryhall / Broomhill / Garthdee11,322Aberdeen South3,003437914003,508007,862
AberdeenTorry / Ferryhill15,456Aberdeen South2,8921,5201,087005,2350010,734
AberdeenKincorth / Loirston11,130Aberdeen South2,275913801003,740007,729
 Total65,718 16,3983,8345,0180020,3880045,638

The full details of these calculations are given on the Aberdeen South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Aberdeenshire West and KincardineTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AberdeenshireWest Garioch3,376Gordon and Deeside96975298001,137002,479
AberdeenshireEast Garioch2,598Gordon and Deeside7947520400834001,907
AberdeenshireWesthill and District11,470Gordon and Deeside3,619344996003,465008,424
AberdeenshireHuntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford3,415Gordon and Deeside99598289001,125002,507
AberdeenshireAboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside8,897Gordon and Deeside3,008217778002,530006,533
AberdeenshireBanchory and Mid Deeside8,697Gordon and Deeside3,035222730002,399006,386
AberdeenshireNorth Kincardine11,097Kincardine and Angus North2,9735571,047003,572008,149
AberdeenshireStonehaven and Lower Deeside11,415Aberdeen South;
Kincardine and Angus North
3,727443931003,282008,383
AberdeenshireMearns11,677Kincardine and Angus North3,632399979003,565008,575
 Total72,642 22,7522,4306,2520021,9090053,343

The full details of these calculations are given on the Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Aberdeen South

The new seat of Aberdeen South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Aberdeen South
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AberdeenAiryhall / Broomhill / Garthdee11,322Aberdeen South3,003437914003,508007,862
AberdeenGeorge St / Harbour10,841Aberdeen North1,2677935991771553,500006,491
AberdeenGeorge St / Harbour716Aberdeen South13366540024400497
AberdeenHazlehead / Ashley / Queens Cross884Aberdeen North1981154111024500529
AberdeenHazlehead / Ashley / Queens Cross12,111Aberdeen South3,7163121,041003,341008,410
AberdeenKincorth / Loirston11,130Aberdeen South2,275913801003,740007,729
AberdeenLower Deeside10,634Aberdeen South3,544275811002,755007,385
AberdeenMidstocket / Rosemount1,348Aberdeen North1876862211945000807
AberdeenMidstocket / Rosemount4,185Aberdeen South799301297001,509002,906
AberdeenTorry / Ferryhill15,456Aberdeen South2,8921,5201,087005,2350010,734
AberdeenTorry / Ferryhill41Aberdeen North53211130025
AberdeenshireStonehaven and Lower Deeside1,217Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine39747990035000893
 Total79,885 18,4164,7465,82121018524,8900054,268

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Aberdeen South. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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