Banff and Buchan: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Banff and Buchan: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2019: David Duguid  (CON)
County/Area: Grampian (Scotland)
Electorate: 77,815
Turnout: 64.4%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
CON24,31648.5%
SNP20,62041.1%
LIB3,1336.2%
LAB2,0614.1%
CON Majority3,6967.4%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Banff and Buchan : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Banff and Buchan constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONSNPCON
Party Winner 2017CONSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position13° Left23° Left
National Position3° Glo15° Glo
Social Position8° Lib13° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %52%38%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health51%52%48%
UK Born94%93%88%
Good Education30%36%39%
Good Job39%49%51%
High SEC51%55%51%
Average Age49.848.748.5
ABC1 Class40%50%54%

Banff and Buchan ranks #345 for "Leave", #504 for "Right", #413 for "National" and #503 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Banff and Buchan: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Banff and Buchan been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Banff and Buchan

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Banff and Buchan

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Banff and Buchan, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Banff and BuchanTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AberdeenshireBanff and District8,378Banff and Buchan2,586190322002,213005,311
AberdeenshireTroup7,400Banff and Buchan2,396218215001,863004,692
AberdeenshireFraserburgh and District11,548Banff and Buchan3,491388493002,950007,322
AberdeenshireCentral Buchan9,819Banff and Buchan3,337215297002,376006,225
AberdeenshirePeterhead North and Rattray11,186Banff and Buchan3,480348361002,904007,093
AberdeenshirePeterhead South and Cruden8,665Banff and Buchan2,638203247002,406005,494
AberdeenshireTurriff and District8,802Banff and Buchan2,948149310002,173005,580
AberdeenshireMid Formartine852Banff and Buchan;
Gordon and Deeside
30522340017900540
AberdeenshireEllon and District5Banff and Buchan200002004
 Total66,655 21,1831,7332,2790017,0660042,261

The full details of these calculations are given on the Banff and Buchan seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Gordon

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Gordon, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: GordonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AberdeenDyce / Bucksburn / Danestone11,401Aberdeen North2,973724685003,624008,006
AberdeenBridge of Don12,429Aberdeen North3,333668782003,944008,727
AberdeenshireTurriff and District1Banff and Buchan000000000
AberdeenshireMid Formartine11,695Aberdeen North;
Gordon and Deeside
3,660346739003,467008,212
AberdeenshireEllon and District11,654Banff and Buchan3,310341874003,658008,183
AberdeenshireWest Garioch5,763Gordon and Deeside1,712113613001,609004,047
AberdeenshireInverurie and District10,651Gordon and Deeside3,004446879003,150007,479
AberdeenshireEast Garioch7,661Gordon and Deeside2,435196629002,119005,379
AberdeenshireHuntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford8,373Gordon and Deeside2,638219711002,312005,880
 Total79,628 23,0653,0535,9120023,8830055,913

The full details of these calculations are given on the Gordon seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Banff and Buchan

The new seat of Banff and Buchan is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Banff and Buchan
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AberdeenshireBanff and District8,378Banff and Buchan2,586190322002,213005,311
AberdeenshireCentral Buchan9,819Banff and Buchan3,337215297002,376006,225
AberdeenshireEllon and District11,654Gordon3,310341874003,658008,183
AberdeenshireEllon and District5Banff and Buchan200002004
AberdeenshireFraserburgh and District11,548Banff and Buchan3,491388493002,950007,322
AberdeenshireMid Formartine357Banff and Buchan128914007500226
AberdeenshirePeterhead North and Rattray11,186Banff and Buchan3,480348361002,904007,093
AberdeenshirePeterhead South and Cruden8,665Banff and Buchan2,638203247002,406005,494
AberdeenshireTroup7,400Banff and Buchan2,396218215001,863004,692
AberdeenshireTurriff and District8,802Banff and Buchan2,948149310002,173005,580
AberdeenshireTurriff and District1Gordon000000000
 Total77,815 24,3162,0613,1330020,6200050,130

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Banff and Buchan. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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