Belfast South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Belfast South: Overview

Projection: DUP seat

Implied MP at 2017:	Emma Little Pengelly (DUP)
County/Area:	Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:	71,163
Turnout:	65.8%

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
DUP	15,178	32.4%
SDLP	11,295	24.1%
Alliance	8,680	18.5%
SF	7,227	15.4%
TUV	2,297	4.9%
UUP	1,836	3.9%
OTH	296	0.6%
MIN	17	0.0%
DUP Majority	3,883	8.3%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Belfast South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Belfast South: Map

List of old seats forming part of Belfast South

The old seat(s) needed are:

Belfast East
Belfast South
Belfast West
Lagan Valley
Strangford

Old seat: Belfast East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast East				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	TUV Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Belfast	Ballymacarrett	3,516	Belfast East	97	23	1,426	833	6	123	0	33	2,541
Belfast	Beersbridge	3,431	Belfast East	113	3	1,682	985	26	144	0	39	2,992
Belfast	Belmont	3,522	Belfast East	75	8	1,100	1,005	36	11	0	26	2,261
Belfast	Bloomfield	3,462	Belfast East	97	23	1,466	1,012	40	123	0	33	2,794
Belfast	Connswater	3,520	Belfast East	96	12	1,438	911	32	122	0	33	2,644
Belfast	Cregagh	1,685	Belfast South	33	8	559	385	15	42	0	11	1,053
Belfast	Garnerville	3,240	Belfast East	72	3	1,057	931	34	11	0	25	2,133
Belfast	Gilnahirk	3,551	Belfast East	85	2	1,234	946	40	15	0	29	2,351
Belfast	Hillfoot	1,676	Belfast East	30	7	558	321	12	28	0	10	966
Belfast	Knock	3,645	Belfast East	72	17	1,061	1,158	34	11	0	25	2,378
Belfast	Merok	3,074	Belfast East	65	14	1,289	582	17	44	0	22	2,033
Belfast	Orangefield	3,393	Belfast East	68	16	1,258	778	31	23	0	23	2,197
Belfast	Sandown	3,196	Belfast East	74	2	1,086	845	35	21	0	25	2,088
Belfast	Shandon	3,742	Belfast East	83	2	1,206	1,001	39	15	0	28	2,374
Belfast	Stormont	3,654	Belfast East	74	17	1,084	1,048	35	11	0	25	2,294
Belfast	Sydenham	3,321	Belfast East	90	2	1,382	782	18	115	0	31	2,420
Belfast	Woodstock	41	Belfast South	1	0	18	11	0	1	0	0	31
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Ballyhanwood	2,220	Belfast East	40	1	874	340	19	6	0	14	1,294
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Carrowreagh	3,070	Belfast East	46	1	1,175	451	26	8	0	19	1,726
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Dundonald	2,235	Belfast East	43	1	954	366	20	6	0	15	1,405
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Enler	2,167	Belfast East	33	1	1,036	380	22	7	0	16	1,495
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Graham's Bridge	2,132	Belfast East	20	1	976	369	22	7	0	16	1,411
	Total	63,493		1,407	164	23,919	15,440	559	894	0	498	42,881

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast South				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	TUV Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Belfast	Belvoir	3,193	Belfast South	79	374	859	236	33	216	0	11	1,808
Belfast	Blackstaff	3,768	Belfast South	128	511	1,271	371	189	258	0	18	2,746
Belfast	Central	4,325	Belfast South	69	1,021	923	588	334	1,433	0	26	4,394
Belfast	Cregagh	1,493	Belfast South	35	144	401	183	30	104	0	5	902
Belfast	Finaghy	3,485	Belfast South	69	530	528	165	29	445	0	10	1,776
Belfast	Hillfoot	1,951	Belfast East	43	173	545	199	32	87	0	6	1,085
Belfast	Malone	3,478	Belfast South	62	739	357	286	83	302	0	9	1,838
Belfast	Musgrave	3,553	Belfast South	53	638	434	167	32	647	0	11	1,982
Belfast	Ormeau	3,488	Belfast South	47	751	516	590	267	376	0	14	2,561
Belfast	Ravenhill	3,133	Belfast South	61	358	614	580	126	143	0	10	1,892
Belfast	Rosetta	3,721	Belfast South	68	589	519	573	135	322	0	11	2,217
Belfast	Stranmillis	3,921	Belfast South	132	936	745	534	278	562	0	18	3,205
Belfast	Upper Malone	3,551	Belfast South	77	472	752	260	45	234	0	11	1,851
Belfast	Windsor	3,893	Belfast South	152	1,065	1,091	899	410	591	0	25	4,233
Belfast	Woodstock	3,102	Belfast South	110	438	954	438	73	359	0	15	2,387
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Beechill	2,452	Belfast South	58	409	506	314	24	143	0	8	1,462
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Cairnshill	2,441	Belfast South	47	372	368	264	20	157	0	7	1,235
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Carryduff East	2,056	Belfast South	46	285	434	197	20	161	0	6	1,149
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Carryduff West	2,374	Belfast South	52	394	411	261	22	208	0	7	1,355
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Galwally	2,358	Belfast South	48	389	376	286	20	138	0	7	1,264
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Knockbracken	2,325	Belfast South	45	409	327	280	20	171	0	7	1,259
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Newtownbreda	2,047	Belfast South	43	310	367	277	18	87	0	6	1,108
	Total	66,108		1,524	11,307	13,298	7,948	2,240	7,144	0	248	43,709

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast West				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	TUV Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Belfast	Andersonstown	3,628	Belfast West	0	157	191	29	0	1,467	184	15	2,043
Belfast	Ballygomartin	3,979	Belfast West	0	40	875	49	0	1,132	401	34	2,531
Belfast	Ballymurphy	3,365	Belfast West	0	99	199	17	0	1,591	275	23	2,204
Belfast	Beechmount	3,484	Belfast West	0	147	232	39	0	1,756	284	24	2,482
Belfast	Central	115	Belfast South	0	13	18	7	0	59	17	1	115
Belfast	Clonard	3,652	Belfast West	0	239	394	21	0	1,397	394	33	2,478
Belfast	Collin Glen	3,874	Belfast West	0	159	236	20	0	1,808	260	22	2,505
Belfast	Dunmurry	2,858	Belfast West	0	222	168	113	0	1,268	56	5	1,832
Belfast	Falls	3,225	Belfast West	0	189	370	19	0	1,242	381	32	2,233
Belfast	Falls Park	3,633	Belfast West	0	178	188	35	0	1,474	163	14	2,052
Belfast	Forth River	2,380	Belfast West	0	25	551	22	0	712	254	21	1,585
Belfast	Ladybrook	3,619	Belfast West	0	222	185	109	0	1,588	91	8	2,203
Belfast	Lagmore	4,393	Belfast West	0	314	280	73	0	2,460	171	14	3,312
Belfast	Poleglass	3,664	Belfast West	0	199	235	34	0	2,032	194	16	2,710
Belfast	Shankill	2,127	Belfast West	0	22	486	17	0	628	224	19	1,396
Belfast	Shaw's Road	3,802	Belfast West	0	150	209	17	0	1,612	217	18	2,223
Belfast	Stewartstown	3,553	Belfast West	0	216	189	43	0	1,682	108	9	2,247
Belfast	Turf Lodge	3,459	Belfast West	0	94	197	16	0	1,563	287	24	2,181
Belfast	Twinbrook	3,326	Belfast West	0	173	183	48	0	1,549	139	12	2,104
Belfast	Woodvale	288	Belfast West	0	3	68	5	0	89	31	3	199
	Total	62,424		0	2,861	5,454	733	0	27,109	4,131	347	40,635

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lagan Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lagan Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lagan Valley				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	TUV Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Donaghcloney	81	Upper Bann	14	2	26	4	0	1	0	1	48
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Dromore	3,136	Down Mid	510	112	1,083	211	0	50	0	30	1,996
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Gransha	2,583	Down Mid	415	105	806	97	0	103	0	22	1,548
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Quilly	3,026	Down Mid	520	101	1,003	125	0	79	0	27	1,855
Belfast	Belvoir	303	Belfast South	13	28	79	28	0	15	0	3	166
Belfast	Dunmurry	910	Belfast West	52	108	262	79	0	54	0	9	564
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Ballinderry	2,705	Antrim South	223	139	958	150	0	102	0	22	1,594
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Ballymacash	2,301	Antrim South	192	132	880	146	0	15	0	19	1,384
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Ballymacbrennan	2,304	Down Mid	199	50	825	173	0	15	0	19	1,281
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Ballymacoss	3,078	Antrim South	223	124	1,317	189	0	22	0	28	1,903
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Blaris	2,211	Antrim South	330	60	795	123	0	19	0	24	1,351
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Derryaghy	2,628	Belfast West	175	283	835	273	0	171	0	27	1,764
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Dromara	2,451	Down Mid	220	59	993	168	0	18	0	23	1,481
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Drumbo	2,224	Belfast South	208	48	746	255	0	14	0	19	1,290
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Harmony Hill	2,267	Antrim South	208	154	709	175	0	102	0	20	1,368
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Hilden	2,460	Antrim South	191	73	1,004	179	0	161	0	28	1,636
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Hillhall	2,596	Antrim South	195	65	1,053	225	0	20	0	26	1,584
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Hillsborough	2,557	Down Mid	404	85	687	173	0	17	0	21	1,387
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Knockmore	2,531	Antrim South	179	167	1,159	148	0	20	0	25	1,698
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Lagan	2,350	Antrim South	396	70	736	108	0	17	0	22	1,349
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Lagan Valley	2,093	Antrim South	139	105	1,089	137	0	18	0	24	1,512
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Lambeg	2,302	Belfast West	213	64	984	171	0	42	0	25	1,499
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Lisnagarvey	2,233	Antrim South	156	140	948	98	0	16	0	20	1,378
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Maghaberry	2,713	Antrim South	290	91	1,180	157	0	67	0	25	1,810
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Magheralave	2,329	Antrim South	153	161	731	228	0	115	0	22	1,410
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Maze	2,221	Antrim South	370	52	678	145	0	16	0	21	1,282
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Moira	2,546	Antrim South	400	165	806	246	0	20	0	26	1,663
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Old Warren	2,408	Antrim South	138	152	1,323	114	0	22	0	29	1,778
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Ravernet	2,268	Down Mid	267	48	799	158	0	14	0	19	1,305
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Stonyford	415	Antrim South	26	26	125	13	0	20	0	3	213
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Wallace Park	2,515	Antrim South	247	160	993	276	0	64	0	27	1,767
Lisburn and Castlereagh	White Mountain	3,494	Antrim South	260	234	1,116	216	0	133	0	26	1,985
Newry, Mourne and Down	Ballyward	142	Down South	9	18	37	9	0	7	0	1	81
	Total	72,381		7,535	3,381	26,765	4,997	0	1,569	0	683	44,930

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lagan Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Strangford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Strangford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Strangford				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	TUV Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Carryduff East	478	Belfast South	13	30	125	52	3	19	0	3	245
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Knockbracken	215	Belfast South	4	13	51	29	1	8	0	1	107
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Moneyreagh	2,117	Belfast South	83	21	829	164	70	12	0	16	1,195
Newry, Mourne and Down	Ballynahinch	2,871	Down Mid	221	233	1,033	143	28	150	0	23	1,831
Newry, Mourne and Down	Crossgar and Killyleagh	1,761	Down South	141	141	629	101	17	91	0	14	1,134
Newry, Mourne and Down	Derryboy	2,496	Down Mid	241	176	794	134	22	114	0	18	1,499
Newry, Mourne and Down	Kilmore	2,805	Down Mid	309	197	925	142	25	53	0	21	1,672
Newry, Mourne and Down	Saintfield	2,993	Down Mid	286	202	905	250	25	27	0	20	1,715
North Down and Ards	Ballygowan	3,050	Down Mid	290	33	1,125	256	25	19	0	25	1,773
North Down and Ards	Ballywalter	3,147	Down North	167	157	1,299	192	26	17	0	22	1,880
North Down and Ards	Carrowdore	2,062	Down North	109	104	842	144	17	11	0	14	1,241
North Down and Ards	Comber North	2,726	Down Mid	251	31	1,079	194	23	18	0	24	1,620
North Down and Ards	Comber South	2,738	Down Mid	228	28	926	295	21	17	0	22	1,537
North Down and Ards	Comber West	2,669	Down Mid	223	29	947	317	22	17	0	22	1,577
North Down and Ards	Conway Square	2,873	Down Mid	122	41	1,190	351	27	24	0	32	1,787
North Down and Ards	Cronstown	3,184	Down Mid	226	39	1,206	371	28	23	0	30	1,923
North Down and Ards	Glen	3,043	Down Mid	187	37	1,114	378	26	22	0	28	1,792
North Down and Ards	Gregstown	2,526	Down Mid	194	30	955	235	22	18	0	24	1,478
North Down and Ards	Killinchy	2,579	Down Mid	228	26	828	324	20	15	0	20	1,461
North Down and Ards	Kircubbin	2,907	Down North	116	245	1,082	177	25	158	0	5	1,808
North Down and Ards	Loughries	1,547	Down North	64	78	566	111	11	8	0	10	848
North Down and Ards	Movilla	2,538	Down Mid	128	41	1,194	393	27	24	0	32	1,839
North Down and Ards	Portaferry	2,548	Down North	85	253	943	136	22	158	0	3	1,600
North Down and Ards	Portavogie	2,558	Down North	117	145	1,211	154	22	16	0	20	1,685
North Down and Ards	Scrabo	3,065	Down Mid	230	31	969	323	23	19	0	24	1,619
North Down and Ards	West Winds	2,831	Down Mid	154	42	1,269	326	29	25	0	32	1,877
	Total	64,327		4,417	2,403	24,036	5,692	607	1,083	0	505	38,743

The full details of these calculations are given on the Strangford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Belfast South

The new seat of Belfast South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	TUV Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Belfast South
Belfast	Belvoir	265	Lagan Valley	13	28	79	28	0	15	0	3	166
Belfast	Belvoir	2,735	Belfast South	79	374	859	236	33	216	0	11	1,808
Belfast	Blackstaff	4,153	Belfast South	128	511	1,271	371	189	258	0	18	2,746
Belfast	Central	177	Belfast West	0	13	18	7	0	59	17	1	115
Belfast	Central	6,647	Belfast South	69	1,021	923	588	334	1,433	0	26	4,394
Belfast	Cregagh	1,561	Belfast East	33	8	559	385	15	42	0	11	1,053
Belfast	Cregagh	1,365	Belfast South	35	144	401	183	30	104	0	5	902
Belfast	Finaghy	2,684	Belfast South	69	530	528	165	29	445	0	10	1,776
Belfast	Malone	2,779	Belfast South	62	739	357	286	83	302	0	9	1,838
Belfast	Musgrave	2,997	Belfast South	53	638	434	167	32	647	0	11	1,982
Belfast	Ormeau	3,872	Belfast South	47	751	516	590	267	376	0	14	2,561
Belfast	Ravenhill	2,862	Belfast South	61	358	614	580	126	143	0	10	1,892
Belfast	Rosetta	3,352	Belfast South	68	589	519	573	135	322	0	11	2,217
Belfast	Stranmillis	4,849	Belfast South	132	936	745	534	278	562	0	18	3,205
Belfast	Upper Malone	2,801	Belfast South	77	472	752	260	45	234	0	11	1,851
Belfast	Windsor	6,402	Belfast South	152	1,065	1,091	899	410	591	0	25	4,233
Belfast	Woodstock	48	Belfast East	1	0	18	11	0	1	0	0	31
Belfast	Woodstock	3,611	Belfast South	110	438	954	438	73	359	0	15	2,387
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Beechill	2,210	Belfast South	58	409	506	314	24	143	0	8	1,462
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Cairnshill	1,868	Belfast South	47	372	368	264	20	157	0	7	1,235
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Carryduff East	408	Strangford	13	30	125	52	3	19	0	3	245
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Carryduff East	1,737	Belfast South	46	285	434	197	20	161	0	6	1,149
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Carryduff West	2,049	Belfast South	52	394	411	261	22	208	0	7	1,355
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Drumbo	2,077	Lagan Valley	208	48	746	255	0	14	0	19	1,290
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Galwally	1,912	Belfast South	48	389	376	286	20	138	0	7	1,264
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Knockbracken	178	Strangford	4	13	51	29	1	8	0	1	107
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Knockbracken	1,904	Belfast South	45	409	327	280	20	171	0	7	1,259
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Moneyreagh	1,985	Strangford	83	21	829	164	70	12	0	16	1,195
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Newtownbreda	1,675	Belfast South	43	310	367	277	18	87	0	6	1,108
	Total	71,163		1,836	11,295	15,178	8,680	2,297	7,227	17	296	46,826

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Belfast South. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.