Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline: Overview

 Projection: SNP seat 

Implied MP at 2019: Douglas Chapman  (SNP)
County/Area: Fife (Scotland)
Electorate: 79,649
Turnout: 71.6%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
SNP26,61046.7%
CON15,11426.5%
LAB10,72318.8%
LIB3,7016.5%
Green6451.1%
OTH2390.4%
SNP Majority11,49620.2%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position28° Left23° Left
National Position14° Glo15° Glo
Social Position14° Lib13° Lib
TribeStrong Left
EU Leave %40%38%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health52%52%48%
UK Born96%93%88%
Good Education36%36%39%
Good Job49%49%51%
High SEC54%55%51%
Average Age49.448.748.5
ABC1 Class49%50%54%

Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline ranks #511 for "Leave", #585 for "Right", #518 for "National" and #565 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Dunfermline and West Fife

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dunfermline and West Fife, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dunfermline and West FifeTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
FifeWest Fife and Coastal Villages14,089Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline2,2242,50865802314,209009,830
FifeDunfermline North10,154Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline1,3861,77257801673,181007,084
FifeDunfermline Central15,011Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline2,3462,31495302474,6140010,474
FifeDunfermline South16,662Fife South2,5342,6751,09702745,0450011,625
FifeRosyth11,442Fife South1,4132,04957501883,759007,984
FifeInverkeithing and Dalgety Bay4,296Fife South7614922190711,456002,999
FifeThe Lochs707Fife South831782401219700494
FifeCowdenbeath4,291Fife South4591,0401590691,266002,993
 Total76,652 11,20613,0284,26301,25923,7270053,483

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dunfermline and West Fife seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ochil and South Perthshire

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ochil and South Perthshire, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ochil and South PerthshireTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ClackmannanshireClackmannanshire West9,842Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline2,2131,193361003,3970587,222
ClackmannanshireClackmannanshire North8,552Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline1,946620371003,2890516,277
ClackmannanshireClackmannanshire Central6,467Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline1,347849231002,2800384,745
ClackmannanshireClackmannanshire South9,808Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline1,9361,174360003,6700587,198
ClackmannanshireClackmannanshire East5,726Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline1,716293189001,9700344,202
Perth and KinrossStrathtay2,795Perth and North Perthshire8735794001,0170102,051
Perth and KinrossStrathearn8,641Stirlingshire, Strathearn and Kinross3,119196308002,6850336,341
Perth and KinrossStrathallan7,841Stirlingshire, Strathearn and Kinross2,708167354002,4980295,756
Perth and KinrossKinross-shire9,944Stirlingshire, Strathearn and Kinross3,408224574003,0540387,298
Perth and KinrossAlmond and Earn9,160Stirlingshire, Strathearn and Kinross3,117188362003,0230336,723
 Total78,776 22,3834,9613,2040026,883038257,813

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ochil and South Perthshire seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline

The new seat of Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ClackmannanshireClackmannanshire Central6,467Ochil and South Perthshire1,347849231002,2800384,745
ClackmannanshireClackmannanshire East5,726Ochil and South Perthshire1,716293189001,9700344,202
ClackmannanshireClackmannanshire North8,552Ochil and South Perthshire1,946620371003,2890516,277
ClackmannanshireClackmannanshire South9,808Ochil and South Perthshire1,9361,174360003,6700587,198
ClackmannanshireClackmannanshire West9,842Ochil and South Perthshire2,2131,193361003,3970587,222
FifeDunfermline Central15,011Dunfermline and West Fife2,3462,31495302474,6140010,474
FifeDunfermline North10,154Dunfermline and West Fife1,3861,77257801673,181007,084
FifeWest Fife and Coastal Villages14,089Dunfermline and West Fife2,2242,50865802314,209009,830
 Total79,649 15,11410,7233,701064526,610023957,032

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Clackmannanshire and Dunfermline. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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