Down North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Down North: Overview

 Projection: Alliance seat 

Implied MP at 2019: Stephen Farry  (Alliance)
County/Area: Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 75,647
Turnout: 59.6%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
Alliance18,57341.2%
DUP18,32240.6%
UUP5,03611.2%
OTH2,1884.9%
SDLP6121.4%
Green1900.4%
SF1860.4%
Alliance Majority2510.6%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Down North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Down North constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019AllianceDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015MINDUPCON
EU Leave %50%44%52%
British Identity57%40%29%
Good Health46%48%48%
UK Born95%93%88%
Good Education41%36%39%
Good Job55%47%51%
High SEC68%57%51%
Average Age50.147.248.4
ABC1 Class56%45%53%

Down North ranks #383 for "Leave", out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Down North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Down North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Down North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Down North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastGarnerville228Belfast East16048690005138
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2,285Down North1670557592000681,384
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey3,567Down North27907611,0020001182,160
North Down and ArdsBallyholme2,757Down North2110587787000851,670
North Down and ArdsBallymagee3,095Down North2250753805000921,875
North Down and ArdsBloomfield3,024Down North2350666832000991,832
North Down and ArdsBroadway2,731Down North2070620744000841,655
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2,697Down North1930519848000731,633
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore879Down North50030416200017533
North Down and ArdsCastle2,987Down North2330662814000991,808
North Down and ArdsClandeboye2,760Down North1970693711000711,672
North Down and ArdsCultra2,796Down North2110537867000781,693
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee3,056Down North2230762772000941,851
North Down and ArdsGroomsport2,679Down North1940650698000801,622
North Down and ArdsHarbour3,439Down North28005931,0940001172,084
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay2,665Down North1980545799000721,614
North Down and ArdsHolywood3,281Belfast East24906321,015000921,988
North Down and ArdsKilcooley3,142Down North2230762829000891,903
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,207Down North69040823000024731
North Down and ArdsLoughview3,593Belfast East2610861961000942,177
North Down and ArdsRathgael2,568Down North1820625676000721,555
North Down and ArdsRathmore2,723Down North1830726672000691,650
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch3,146Down North2320764812000981,906
North Down and ArdsSilverstream2,856Down North2040643804000801,731
North Down and ArdsWarren2,939Down North2150714763000891,781
 Total67,100 4,937015,39218,3580001,95940,646

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Strangford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Strangford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: StrangfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East424Belfast South14198990510011238
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken185Belfast South4836443405104
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh2,065Belfast South80436253192370591,156
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,165Down Mid20214176545543740931,773
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,960Down South1298646329127450571,098
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,588Down Mid21610957438435560741,448
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,889Down Mid27511866341636270841,619
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,963Down Mid25612063051935150841,659
North Down and ArdsBallygowan3,061Down Mid2576382544734110761,713
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,246Down North15510897644437100881,818
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,144Down North102716293092570571,200
North Down and ArdsComber North2,800Down Mid2235880337132100711,568
North Down and ArdsComber South2,654Down Mid2035566845430100671,487
North Down and ArdsComber West2,725Down Mid2005668347930100681,526
North Down and ArdsConway Square3,089Down Mid1156788853035130831,731
North Down and ArdsCronstown3,322Down Mid2057088356838130851,862
North Down and ArdsGlen3,096Down Mid1716581455935120791,735
North Down and ArdsGregstown2,553Down Mid1745470539129100671,430
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2,523Down Mid203525864742980621,414
North Down and ArdsKircubbin3,122Down North11214381448041770821,749
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,465Down North6052422225175040821
North Down and ArdsMovilla3,177Down Mid1216988457436130841,781
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,760Down North8514071042337770741,546
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,912Down North1119892037933100791,630
North Down and ArdsScrabo2,797Down Mid2065869949231110701,567
North Down and ArdsWest Winds3,242Down Mid1437095051836130861,816
 Total66,927 4,0221,99317,70410,63579255801,78537,489

The full details of these calculations are given on the Strangford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Down North

The new seat of Down North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Down North
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2,285Down North1670557592000681,384
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey3,567Down North27907611,0020001182,160
North Down and ArdsBallyholme2,757Down North2110587787000851,670
North Down and ArdsBallymagee3,095Down North2250753805000921,875
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,246Strangford15510897644437100881,818
North Down and ArdsBloomfield3,024Down North2350666832000991,832
North Down and ArdsBroadway2,731Down North2070620744000841,655
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2,697Down North1930519848000731,633
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore879Down North50030416200017533
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,144Strangford102716293092570571,200
North Down and ArdsCastle2,987Down North2330662814000991,808
North Down and ArdsClandeboye2,760Down North1970693711000711,672
North Down and ArdsCultra2,796Down North2110537867000781,693
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee3,056Down North2230762772000941,851
North Down and ArdsGroomsport2,679Down North1940650698000801,622
North Down and ArdsHarbour3,439Down North28005931,0940001172,084
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay2,665Down North1980545799000721,614
North Down and ArdsKilcooley3,142Down North2230762829000891,903
North Down and ArdsKircubbin3,122Strangford11214381448041770821,749
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,207Down North69040823000024731
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,465Strangford6052422225175040821
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,760Strangford8514071042337770741,546
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,912Strangford1119892037933100791,630
North Down and ArdsRathgael2,568Down North1820625676000721,555
North Down and ArdsRathmore2,723Down North1830726672000691,650
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch3,146Down North2320764812000981,906
North Down and ArdsSilverstream2,856Down North2040643804000801,731
North Down and ArdsWarren2,939Down North2150714763000891,781
 Total75,647 5,03661218,32218,57319018602,18845,107

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Down North. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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