Down Mid: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Down Mid: Overview

Projection: DUP seat

Implied MP at 2017:	Jim Shannon (DUP)
County/Area:	Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:	76,120
Turnout:	61.4%

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
DUP	26,152	55.9%
UUP	8,199	17.5%
Alliance	6,077	13.0%
SDLP	2,748	5.9%
SF	2,616	5.6%
OTH	558	1.2%
TUV	393	0.8%
DUP Majority	17,953	38.4%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Down Mid been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Down Mid: Map

List of old seats forming part of Down Mid

The old seat(s) needed are:

Down South
Lagan Valley
Strangford
Upper Bann

Old seat: Down South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down South				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	TUV Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Banbridge East	827	Down Mid	27	91	192	50	0	161	0	0	521
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Gransha	721	Down Mid	21	71	222	24	0	126	0	0	464
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Loughbrickland	1,150	Down South	37	140	236	36	0	218	0	0	667
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Rathfriland	3,323	Down South	121	401	942	61	0	706	0	0	2,231
Newry, Mourne and Down	Abbey	222	Newry and Armagh	2	54	16	2	0	87	0	0	161
Newry, Mourne and Down	Annalong	2,968	Down South	113	475	495	32	0	811	0	0	1,926
Newry, Mourne and Down	Ballydugan	2,628	Down South	51	437	331	178	0	712	0	0	1,709
Newry, Mourne and Down	Ballyward	2,853	Down South	81	384	483	182	0	644	0	0	1,774
Newry, Mourne and Down	Binnian	2,958	Down South	116	389	694	32	0	670	0	0	1,901
Newry, Mourne and Down	Burren	2,842	Down South	59	829	179	21	0	756	0	0	1,844
Newry, Mourne and Down	Castlewellan	2,774	Down South	51	587	211	129	0	1,061	0	0	2,039
Newry, Mourne and Down	Cathedral	2,746	Down South	31	908	175	23	0	767	0	0	1,904
Newry, Mourne and Down	Crossgar and Killyleagh	1,118	Down South	41	199	261	61	0	241	0	0	803
Newry, Mourne and Down	Damolly	506	Newry and Armagh	12	129	44	5	0	186	0	0	376
Newry, Mourne and Down	Derryboy	414	Down Mid	14	61	101	22	0	80	0	0	278
Newry, Mourne and Down	Derryleckagh	3,123	Down South	75	891	208	23	0	877	0	0	2,074
Newry, Mourne and Down	Donard	2,665	Down South	88	618	225	156	0	716	0	0	1,803
Newry, Mourne and Down	Drumaness	2,828	Down South	79	461	393	192	0	773	0	0	1,898
Newry, Mourne and Down	Dundrum	2,886	Down South	90	468	477	205	0	725	0	0	1,965
Newry, Mourne and Down	Hilltown	3,244	Down South	100	922	252	28	0	972	0	0	2,274
Newry, Mourne and Down	Kilkeel	2,462	Down South	113	387	558	49	0	715	0	0	1,822
Newry, Mourne and Down	Knocknashinna	3,046	Down South	28	1,145	190	26	0	737	0	0	2,126
Newry, Mourne and Down	Lecale	2,925	Down South	38	991	184	24	0	692	0	0	1,929
Newry, Mourne and Down	Lisnacree	3,171	Down South	110	679	275	32	0	1,118	0	0	2,214
Newry, Mourne and Down	Mayobridge	3,008	Down South	92	837	231	26	0	834	0	0	2,020
Newry, Mourne and Down	Murlough	3,054	Down South	88	598	221	68	0	887	0	0	1,862
Newry, Mourne and Down	Quoile	2,762	Down South	78	954	203	22	0	478	0	0	1,735
Newry, Mourne and Down	Rostrevor	3,112	Down South	54	1,035	207	25	0	848	0	0	2,169
Newry, Mourne and Down	St Patrick's	705	Newry and Armagh	17	203	56	7	0	224	0	0	507
Newry, Mourne and Down	Strangford	2,791	Down South	42	964	169	21	0	589	0	0	1,785
Newry, Mourne and Down	Tollymore	2,865	Down South	86	604	217	26	0	931	0	0	1,864
Newry, Mourne and Down	Warrenpoint	2,986	Down South	48	973	218	28	0	986	0	0	2,253
	Total	75,683		2,003	17,885	8,866	1,816	0	20,328	0	0	50,898

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lagan Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lagan Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lagan Valley				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	TUV Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Donaghcloney	81	Upper Bann	14	2	26	4	0	1	0	1	48
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Dromore	3,136	Down Mid	510	112	1,083	211	0	50	0	30	1,996
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Gransha	2,583	Down Mid	415	105	806	97	0	103	0	22	1,548
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Quilly	3,026	Down Mid	520	101	1,003	125	0	79	0	27	1,855
Belfast	Belvoir	303	Belfast South	13	28	79	28	0	15	0	3	166
Belfast	Dunmurry	910	Belfast West	52	108	262	79	0	54	0	9	564
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Ballinderry	2,705	Antrim South	223	139	958	150	0	102	0	22	1,594
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Ballymacash	2,301	Antrim South	192	132	880	146	0	15	0	19	1,384
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Ballymacbrennan	2,304	Down Mid	199	50	825	173	0	15	0	19	1,281
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Ballymacoss	3,078	Antrim South	223	124	1,317	189	0	22	0	28	1,903
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Blaris	2,211	Antrim South	330	60	795	123	0	19	0	24	1,351
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Derryaghy	2,628	Belfast West	175	283	835	273	0	171	0	27	1,764
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Dromara	2,451	Down Mid	220	59	993	168	0	18	0	23	1,481
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Drumbo	2,224	Belfast South	208	48	746	255	0	14	0	19	1,290
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Harmony Hill	2,267	Antrim South	208	154	709	175	0	102	0	20	1,368
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Hilden	2,460	Antrim South	191	73	1,004	179	0	161	0	28	1,636
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Hillhall	2,596	Antrim South	195	65	1,053	225	0	20	0	26	1,584
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Hillsborough	2,557	Down Mid	404	85	687	173	0	17	0	21	1,387
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Knockmore	2,531	Antrim South	179	167	1,159	148	0	20	0	25	1,698
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Lagan	2,350	Antrim South	396	70	736	108	0	17	0	22	1,349
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Lagan Valley	2,093	Antrim South	139	105	1,089	137	0	18	0	24	1,512
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Lambeg	2,302	Belfast West	213	64	984	171	0	42	0	25	1,499
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Lisnagarvey	2,233	Antrim South	156	140	948	98	0	16	0	20	1,378
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Maghaberry	2,713	Antrim South	290	91	1,180	157	0	67	0	25	1,810
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Magheralave	2,329	Antrim South	153	161	731	228	0	115	0	22	1,410
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Maze	2,221	Antrim South	370	52	678	145	0	16	0	21	1,282
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Moira	2,546	Antrim South	400	165	806	246	0	20	0	26	1,663
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Old Warren	2,408	Antrim South	138	152	1,323	114	0	22	0	29	1,778
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Ravernet	2,268	Down Mid	267	48	799	158	0	14	0	19	1,305
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Stonyford	415	Antrim South	26	26	125	13	0	20	0	3	213
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Wallace Park	2,515	Antrim South	247	160	993	276	0	64	0	27	1,767
Lisburn and Castlereagh	White Mountain	3,494	Antrim South	260	234	1,116	216	0	133	0	26	1,985
Newry, Mourne and Down	Ballyward	142	Down South	9	18	37	9	0	7	0	1	81
	Total	72,381		7,535	3,381	26,765	4,997	0	1,569	0	683	44,930

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lagan Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Strangford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Strangford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Strangford				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	TUV Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Carryduff East	478	Belfast South	13	30	125	52	3	19	0	3	245
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Knockbracken	215	Belfast South	4	13	51	29	1	8	0	1	107
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Moneyreagh	2,117	Belfast South	83	21	829	164	70	12	0	16	1,195
Newry, Mourne and Down	Ballynahinch	2,871	Down Mid	221	233	1,033	143	28	150	0	23	1,831
Newry, Mourne and Down	Crossgar and Killyleagh	1,761	Down South	141	141	629	101	17	91	0	14	1,134
Newry, Mourne and Down	Derryboy	2,496	Down Mid	241	176	794	134	22	114	0	18	1,499
Newry, Mourne and Down	Kilmore	2,805	Down Mid	309	197	925	142	25	53	0	21	1,672
Newry, Mourne and Down	Saintfield	2,993	Down Mid	286	202	905	250	25	27	0	20	1,715
North Down and Ards	Ballygowan	3,050	Down Mid	290	33	1,125	256	25	19	0	25	1,773
North Down and Ards	Ballywalter	3,147	Down North	167	157	1,299	192	26	17	0	22	1,880
North Down and Ards	Carrowdore	2,062	Down North	109	104	842	144	17	11	0	14	1,241
North Down and Ards	Comber North	2,726	Down Mid	251	31	1,079	194	23	18	0	24	1,620
North Down and Ards	Comber South	2,738	Down Mid	228	28	926	295	21	17	0	22	1,537
North Down and Ards	Comber West	2,669	Down Mid	223	29	947	317	22	17	0	22	1,577
North Down and Ards	Conway Square	2,873	Down Mid	122	41	1,190	351	27	24	0	32	1,787
North Down and Ards	Cronstown	3,184	Down Mid	226	39	1,206	371	28	23	0	30	1,923
North Down and Ards	Glen	3,043	Down Mid	187	37	1,114	378	26	22	0	28	1,792
North Down and Ards	Gregstown	2,526	Down Mid	194	30	955	235	22	18	0	24	1,478
North Down and Ards	Killinchy	2,579	Down Mid	228	26	828	324	20	15	0	20	1,461
North Down and Ards	Kircubbin	2,907	Down North	116	245	1,082	177	25	158	0	5	1,808
North Down and Ards	Loughries	1,547	Down North	64	78	566	111	11	8	0	10	848
North Down and Ards	Movilla	2,538	Down Mid	128	41	1,194	393	27	24	0	32	1,839
North Down and Ards	Portaferry	2,548	Down North	85	253	943	136	22	158	0	3	1,600
North Down and Ards	Portavogie	2,558	Down North	117	145	1,211	154	22	16	0	20	1,685
North Down and Ards	Scrabo	3,065	Down Mid	230	31	969	323	23	19	0	24	1,619
North Down and Ards	West Winds	2,831	Down Mid	154	42	1,269	326	29	25	0	32	1,877
	Total	64,327		4,417	2,403	24,036	5,692	607	1,083	0	505	38,743

The full details of these calculations are given on the Strangford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Upper Bann

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Upper Bann, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Upper Bann				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	TUV Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Aghagallon	3,406	Upper Bann	92	306	627	117	0	962	0	0	2,104
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Ballybay	3,006	Upper Bann	303	50	1,225	42	0	342	0	0	1,962
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Banbridge East	2,322	Down Mid	368	149	549	102	0	221	0	0	1,389
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Banbridge North	3,127	Down Mid	494	173	756	130	0	292	0	0	1,845
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Banbridge South	3,309	Down Mid	569	180	844	104	0	327	0	0	2,024
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Banbridge West	3,621	Down Mid	653	247	833	108	0	528	0	0	2,369
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Bleary	3,324	Upper Bann	442	97	1,020	96	0	298	0	0	1,953
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Brownlow	3,679	Upper Bann	147	422	861	39	0	1,253	0	0	2,722
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Corcrain	2,944	Upper Bann	69	332	711	35	0	1,122	0	0	2,269
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Craigavon Centre	3,347	Upper Bann	388	201	1,165	200	0	417	0	0	2,371
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Derrytrasna	3,365	Upper Bann	151	301	657	27	0	896	0	0	2,032
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Donaghcloney	3,208	Upper Bann	449	39	1,016	108	0	279	0	0	1,891
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Gilford	3,248	Upper Bann	543	249	725	76	0	487	0	0	2,080
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Kernan	3,255	Upper Bann	436	99	1,068	148	0	316	0	0	2,067
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Killycomain	2,771	Upper Bann	255	60	1,154	121	0	338	0	0	1,928
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Knocknashane	2,970	Upper Bann	265	41	1,068	148	0	291	0	0	1,813
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Lough Road	3,326	Upper Bann	75	301	603	55	0	1,098	0	0	2,132
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Loughbrickland	2,021	Down South	305	134	417	44	0	212	0	0	1,112
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Magheralin	3,370	Upper Bann	291	81	988	183	0	344	0	0	1,887
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Mahon	3,062	Upper Bann	363	57	1,197	61	0	337	0	0	2,015
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Mourneview	3,254	Upper Bann	197	61	1,219	102	0	579	0	0	2,158
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Parklake	3,392	Upper Bann	73	295	659	71	0	1,177	0	0	2,275
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Shankill	3,758	Upper Bann	74	312	737	46	0	1,435	0	0	2,604
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	The Birches	3,350	Upper Bann	369	166	1,027	33	0	455	0	0	2,050
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Waringstown	3,732	Upper Bann	530	45	1,190	123	0	320	0	0	2,208
	Total	80,167		7,901	4,398	22,316	2,319	0	14,326	0	0	51,260

The full details of these calculations are given on the Upper Bann seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Down Mid

The new seat of Down Mid is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	TUV Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Down Mid
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Banbridge East	775	Down South	27	91	192	50	0	161	0	0	521
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Banbridge East	2,172	Upper Bann	368	149	549	102	0	221	0	0	1,389
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Banbridge North	2,885	Upper Bann	494	173	756	130	0	292	0	0	1,845
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Banbridge South	3,166	Upper Bann	569	180	844	104	0	327	0	0	2,024
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Banbridge West	3,704	Upper Bann	653	247	833	108	0	528	0	0	2,369
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Dromore	3,215	Lagan Valley	510	112	1,083	211	0	50	0	30	1,996
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Gransha	689	Down South	21	71	222	24	0	126	0	0	464
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Gransha	2,493	Lagan Valley	415	105	806	97	0	103	0	22	1,548
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Quilly	2,989	Lagan Valley	520	101	1,003	125	0	79	0	27	1,855
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Ballymacbrennan	2,064	Lagan Valley	199	50	825	173	0	15	0	19	1,281
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Dromara	2,386	Lagan Valley	220	59	993	168	0	18	0	23	1,481
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Hillsborough	2,234	Lagan Valley	404	85	687	173	0	17	0	21	1,387
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Ravernet	2,103	Lagan Valley	267	48	799	158	0	14	0	19	1,305
Newry, Mourne and Down	Ballynahinch	3,042	Strangford	221	233	1,033	143	28	150	0	23	1,831
Newry, Mourne and Down	Derryboy	412	Down South	14	61	101	22	0	80	0	0	278
Newry, Mourne and Down	Derryboy	2,488	Strangford	241	176	794	134	22	114	0	18	1,499
Newry, Mourne and Down	Kilmore	2,777	Strangford	309	197	925	142	25	53	0	21	1,672
Newry, Mourne and Down	Saintfield	2,848	Strangford	286	202	905	250	25	27	0	20	1,715
North Down and Ards	Ballygowan	2,942	Strangford	290	33	1,125	256	25	19	0	25	1,773
North Down and Ards	Comber North	2,691	Strangford	251	31	1,079	194	23	18	0	24	1,620
North Down and Ards	Comber South	2,551	Strangford	228	28	926	295	21	17	0	22	1,537
North Down and Ards	Comber West	2,619	Strangford	223	29	947	317	22	17	0	22	1,577
North Down and Ards	Conway Square	2,969	Strangford	122	41	1,190	351	27	24	0	32	1,787
North Down and Ards	Cronstown	3,193	Strangford	226	39	1,206	371	28	23	0	30	1,923
North Down and Ards	Glen	2,976	Strangford	187	37	1,114	378	26	22	0	28	1,792
North Down and Ards	Gregstown	2,454	Strangford	194	30	955	235	22	18	0	24	1,478
North Down and Ards	Killinchy	2,425	Strangford	228	26	828	324	20	15	0	20	1,461
North Down and Ards	Movilla	3,054	Strangford	128	41	1,194	393	27	24	0	32	1,839
North Down and Ards	Scrabo	2,688	Strangford	230	31	969	323	23	19	0	24	1,619
North Down and Ards	West Winds	3,116	Strangford	154	42	1,269	326	29	25	0	32	1,877
	Total	76,120		8,199	2,748	26,152	6,077	393	2,616	0	558	46,743

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Down Mid. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.