Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2019: David Mundell  (CON)
County/Area: Ayrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Electorate: 81,185
Turnout: 70.6%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
CON23,92141.8%
SNP22,44639.2%
LAB7,19012.5%
LIB3,7346.5%
Green10.0%
CON Majority1,4752.6%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONSNPCON
Party Winner 2017CONSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position14° Left23° Left
National Position4° Glo15° Glo
Social Position5° Lib13° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %45%38%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health50%52%48%
UK Born97%93%88%
Good Education31%36%39%
Good Job43%49%51%
High SEC54%55%51%
Average Age51.648.748.5
ABC1 Class42%50%54%

Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East ranks #452 for "Leave", #508 for "Right", #431 for "National" and #469 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Dumfries and Galloway

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dumfries and Galloway, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dumfries and GallowayTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Dumfries and GallowayStranraer and North Rhins7,432Galloway and Dumfries2,477259306002,083005,125
Dumfries and GallowayWigtown West6,795Galloway and Dumfries2,121216237002,112004,686
Dumfries and GallowayMid Galloway7,550Galloway and Dumfries2,185216248002,558005,207
Dumfries and GallowayDee7,314Galloway and Dumfries2,601169317001,957005,044
Dumfries and GallowayCastle Douglas and Glenkens7,812Galloway and Dumfries2,791167305002,125005,388
Dumfries and GallowayAbbey9,051Galloway and Dumfries2,805678388002,370006,241
Dumfries and GallowayNorth West Dumfries11,028Galloway and Dumfries2,6481,564519002,874007,605
Dumfries and GallowayMid and Upper Nithsdale2,693Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East;
Galloway and Dumfries
80625310200695001,856
Dumfries and GallowayLochar7,202Galloway and Dumfries2,145447332002,043004,967
Dumfries and GallowayNith7,703Galloway and Dumfries2,100777378002,058005,313
 Total74,580 22,6794,7463,1320020,8750051,432

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dumfries and Galloway seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Dumfries and GallowayMid and Upper Nithsdale6,942Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East2,124678287001,904004,993
Dumfries and GallowayLochar2,064Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East;
Galloway and Dumfries
61814710500614001,484
Dumfries and GallowayNith2,267Galloway and Dumfries62724711900639001,632
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale South11,533Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East3,4641,178722002,932008,296
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale North10,406Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East3,965428499002,594007,486
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale East and Eskdale9,848Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East3,688479544002,372007,083
Scottish BordersTweeddale West7,682Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale2,598217474002,237005,526
Scottish BordersTweeddale East7,393Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk;
Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale
2,461243425002,190005,319
South LanarkshireClydesdale East6,422Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East2,101228208002,083004,620
South LanarkshireClydesdale South3,773Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East964327158001,265002,714
 Total68,330 22,6104,1723,5410018,8300049,153

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South LanarkshireClydesdale North55Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East109201160038
South LanarkshireClydesdale South7,787Lanarkshire Mid;
Lanarkshire South West
1,0111,44431201122,41401085,401
South LanarkshireAvondale and Stonehouse12,608Lanarkshire South West2,2091,37354201794,3590838,745
South LanarkshireEast Kilbride South12,401Lanarkshire South West1,5011,94759101764,3220658,602
South LanarkshireEast Kilbride Central South11,531Lanarkshire South West1,2772,25859501643,6260787,998
South LanarkshireEast Kilbride Central North14,481Lanarkshire South West1,8692,61569202054,56609710,044
South LanarkshireEast Kilbride West12,393Lanarkshire South West2,8431,35351001753,6580578,596
South LanarkshireEast Kilbride East9,967Lanarkshire South West1,2421,79251601423,1520706,914
 Total81,223 11,96212,7913,76001,15426,113055856,338

The full details of these calculations are given on the East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lanark and Hamilton East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lanark and Hamilton East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lanark and Hamilton EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South LanarkshireClydesdale West15,232Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East3,2462,078662004,4230010,409
South LanarkshireClydesdale North11,739Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East2,7741,496453003,300008,023
South LanarkshireClydesdale East3,571Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East1,087166117001,070002,440
South LanarkshireClydesdale South586Lanarkshire Mid11881230017800400
South LanarkshireAvondale and Stonehouse970Lanarkshire South West23663400032400663
South LanarkshireBothwell and Uddingston9,574Lanarkshire Mid2,572972348002,650006,542
South LanarkshireHamilton North and East9,270Lanarkshire Mid1,8721,306364002,794006,336
South LanarkshireHamilton West and Earnock757Lanarkshire West144115330022500517
South LanarkshireHamilton South11,079Lanarkshire Mid2,1651,991417002,998007,571
South LanarkshireLarkhall14,880Lanarkshire Mid2,8422,468580004,2790010,169
 Total77,658 17,05610,7363,0370022,2410053,070

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lanark and Hamilton East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East

The new seat of Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale East and Eskdale9,848Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale3,688479544002,372007,083
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale North10,406Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale3,965428499002,594007,486
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale South11,533Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale3,4641,178722002,932008,296
Dumfries and GallowayLochar1,452Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale4351037400432001,044
Dumfries and GallowayMid and Upper Nithsdale212Dumfries and Galloway63208005500146
Dumfries and GallowayMid and Upper Nithsdale6,942Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale2,124678287001,904004,993
South LanarkshireClydesdale East6,422Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale2,101228208002,083004,620
South LanarkshireClydesdale East3,571Lanark and Hamilton East1,087166117001,070002,440
South LanarkshireClydesdale North11,739Lanark and Hamilton East2,7741,496453003,300008,023
South LanarkshireClydesdale North55East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow109201160038
South LanarkshireClydesdale South3,773Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale964327158001,265002,714
South LanarkshireClydesdale West15,232Lanark and Hamilton East3,2462,078662004,4230010,409
 Total81,185 23,9217,1903,7340122,4460057,292

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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