New Seat Details - Eddisbury

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Eddisbury been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	29,443	53.5%
LAB	20,689	37.6%
LIB	3,133	5.7%
UKIP	864	1.6%
Green	759	1.4%
OTH	189	0.3%
CON Majority	8,754	15.9%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Eddisbury: Map

List of old seats forming part of Eddisbury

Old seat: Chester, City of

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Chester, City of, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Chester, City of				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Cheshire West and Chester	Blacon	9,977	Chester, City of	2,020	6,162	103	0	0	0	0	0	8,285
Cheshire West and Chester	Boughton	4,097	Chester, City of	1,284	1,984	64	0	0	0	0	0	3,332
Cheshire West and Chester	Chester City	2,784	Chester, City of	795	1,394	69	0	0	0	0	0	2,258
Cheshire West and Chester	Chester Villages	3,262	Chester, City of	1,439	1,011	48	0	0	0	0	0	2,498
Cheshire West and Chester	Dodleston and Huntington	3,574	Chester, City of	1,305	1,015	62	0	0	0	0	0	2,382
Cheshire West and Chester	Farndon	212	Eddisbury	88	68	4	0	0	0	0	0	160
Cheshire West and Chester	Garden Quarter	3,437	Chester, City of	1,076	2,201	82	0	0	0	0	0	3,359
Cheshire West and Chester	Great Boughton	7,192	Chester, City of	2,649	2,577	217	0	0	0	0	0	5,443
Cheshire West and Chester	Handbridge Park	7,184	Chester, City of	2,821	2,418	148	0	0	0	0	0	5,387
Cheshire West and Chester	Hoole	6,787	Chester, City of	1,916	3,432	237	0	0	0	0	0	5,585
Cheshire West and Chester	Lache	3,755	Chester, City of	1,116	2,333	58	0	0	0	0	0	3,507
Cheshire West and Chester	Little Neston and Burton	386	Ellesmere Port and Neston	140	139	7	0	0	0	0	0	286
Cheshire West and Chester	Newton	7,363	Chester, City of	2,249	3,319	230	0	0	0	0	0	5,798
Cheshire West and Chester	Saughall and Mollington	3,828	Chester, City of	1,468	1,202	38	0	0	0	0	0	2,708
Cheshire West and Chester	Upton	6,939	Chester, City of	2,480	2,766	183	0	0	0	0	0	5,429
	Total	70,777		22,846	32,021	1,550	0	0	0	0	0	56,417

The full details of these calculations are given on the Chester, City of seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Eddisbury

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Eddisbury, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Eddisbury				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Cheshire East	Audlem	3,715	Crewe and Nantwich	1,949	636	112	74	48	0	0	13	2,832
Cheshire East	Brereton Rural	196	Congleton	104	33	8	2	1	0	0	0	148
Cheshire East	Bunbury	3,530	Eddisbury	1,949	638	86	28	49	0	0	4	2,754
Cheshire East	Leighton	114	Crewe and Nantwich	46	29	4	3	1	0	0	1	84
Cheshire East	Wrenbury	3,634	Eddisbury	1,987	600	59	69	42	0	0	9	2,766
Cheshire West and Chester	Chester Villages	1,671	Chester, City of	783	330	58	31	22	0	0	2	1,226
Cheshire West and Chester	Davenham and Moulton	4,268	Eddisbury	1,780	1,142	156	85	31	0	0	6	3,200
Cheshire West and Chester	Farndon	3,134	Eddisbury	1,470	546	167	24	45	0	0	6	2,258
Cheshire West and Chester	Gowy	2,376	Weaver Vale	1,135	385	74	42	29	0	0	5	1,670
Cheshire West and Chester	Malpas	3,444	Eddisbury	1,639	582	71	28	47	0	0	20	2,387
Cheshire West and Chester	Tarporley	3,894	Eddisbury	1,818	586	184	26	26	0	0	5	2,645
Cheshire West and Chester	Tarvin and Kelsall	6,973	Eddisbury	3,330	1,139	336	51	85	0	0	18	4,959
Cheshire West and Chester	Tattenhall	3,626	Eddisbury	1,723	619	163	67	24	0	0	9	2,605
Cheshire West and Chester	Weaver and Cuddington	4,384	Weaver Vale	1,815	1,055	137	94	57	0	0	35	3,193
Cheshire West and Chester	Winsford Over and Verdin	8,848	Eddisbury	3,062	3,451	471	218	119	0	0	18	7,339
Cheshire West and Chester	Winsford Swanlow and Dene	6,708	Eddisbury	2,265	2,510	373	170	73	0	0	14	5,405
Cheshire West and Chester	Winsford Wharton	7,100	Eddisbury	2,338	2,970	346	98	87	0	0	14	5,853
	Total	67,615		29,193	17,251	2,805	1,110	786	0	0	179	51,324

The full details of these calculations are given on the Eddisbury seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Tatton

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tatton, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Tatton				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Cheshire East	Alderley Edge	3,425	Bramhall and Wilmslow	1,746	654	256	0	43	0	0	78	2,777
Cheshire East	Chelford	3,169	Macclesfield	1,577	406	269	0	65	0	0	32	2,349
Cheshire East	Handforth	6,709	Bramhall and Wilmslow	2,517	2,030	507	0	87	0	0	146	5,287
Cheshire East	High Legh	3,349	Altrincham and Knutsford	1,807	469	156	0	78	0	0	22	2,532
Cheshire East	Knutsford	9,902	Altrincham and Knutsford	4,888	1,895	616	0	109	0	0	173	7,681
Cheshire East	Mobberley	3,357	Altrincham and Knutsford	1,705	469	407	0	28	0	0	46	2,655
Cheshire East	Wilmslow Dean Row	3,294	Bramhall and Wilmslow	1,609	657	223	0	40	0	0	65	2,594
Cheshire East	Wilmslow East	2,880	Bramhall and Wilmslow	1,523	492	200	0	92	0	0	59	2,366
Cheshire East	Wilmslow Lacey Green	3,304	Bramhall and Wilmslow	1,559	1,037	209	0	40	0	0	25	2,870
Cheshire East	Wilmslow West and Chorley	7,442	Bramhall and Wilmslow	3,566	1,342	493	0	196	0	0	117	5,714
Cheshire West and Chester	Marbury	9,496	Weaver Vale	3,775	2,348	632	0	187	0	0	90	7,032
Cheshire West and Chester	Shakerley	3,431	Eddisbury	1,433	710	227	0	27	0	0	36	2,433
Cheshire West and Chester	Witton and Rudheath	3,582	Eddisbury	1,060	1,468	238	0	31	0	0	30	2,827
	Total	63,340		28,765	13,977	4,433	0	1,023	0	0	919	49,117

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tatton seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Weaver Vale

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Weaver Vale, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Weaver Vale				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Cheshire West and Chester	Davenham and Moulton	6,373	Eddisbury	2,489	2,040	158	0	44	0	0	0	4,731
Cheshire West and Chester	Frodsham	7,333	Weaver Vale	2,808	2,152	146	0	117	0	0	0	5,223
Cheshire West and Chester	Gowy	887	Weaver Vale	376	211	18	0	12	0	0	0	617
Cheshire West and Chester	Hartford and Greenbank	6,553	Weaver Vale	2,613	1,939	184	0	103	0	0	0	4,839
Cheshire West and Chester	Helsby	3,960	Weaver Vale	1,495	1,223	91	0	57	0	0	0	2,866
Cheshire West and Chester	Kingsley	3,523	Weaver Vale	1,458	832	82	0	47	0	0	0	2,419
Cheshire West and Chester	Weaver and Cuddington	5,952	Weaver Vale	2,295	1,780	124	0	90	0	0	0	4,289
Cheshire West and Chester	Winnington and Castle	7,026	Weaver Vale	1,902	3,023	165	0	117	0	0	0	5,207
Cheshire West and Chester	Winsford Over and Verdin	824	Eddisbury	253	382	28	0	13	0	0	0	676
Cheshire West and Chester	Witton and Rudheath	2,712	Eddisbury	759	1,238	66	0	16	0	0	0	2,079
Halton	Beechwood	2,946	Weaver Vale	798	1,156	109	0	45	0	0	0	2,108
Halton	Daresbury	3,426	Weaver Vale	1,426	1,041	94	0	19	0	0	0	2,580
Halton	Halton Lea	4,513	Widnes and Runcorn	926	2,812	63	0	33	0	0	0	3,834
Halton	Norton North	4,961	Weaver Vale	1,276	2,387	170	0	29	0	0	0	3,862
Halton	Norton South	4,629	Weaver Vale	942	2,824	94	0	34	0	0	0	3,894
Halton	Windmill Hill	1,615	Weaver Vale	321	1,025	33	0	9	0	0	0	1,388
	Total	67,233		22,137	26,065	1,625	0	785	0	0	0	50,612

The full details of these calculations are given on the Weaver Vale seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Eddisbury

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Eddisbury
Cheshire East	Bunbury	3,771	Eddisbury	1,949	638	86	28	49	0	0	4	2,754
Cheshire East	Wrenbury	3,787	Eddisbury	1,987	600	59	69	42	0	0	9	2,766
Cheshire West and Chester	Davenham and Moulton	4,383	Eddisbury	1,780	1,142	156	85	31	0	0	6	3,200
Cheshire West and Chester	Davenham and Moulton	6,450	Weaver Vale	2,489	2,040	158	0	44	0	0	0	4,731
Cheshire West and Chester	Farndon	206	Chester, City of	88	68	4	0	0	0	0	0	160
Cheshire West and Chester	Farndon	3,090	Eddisbury	1,470	546	167	24	45	0	0	6	2,258
Cheshire West and Chester	Malpas	3,268	Eddisbury	1,639	582	71	28	47	0	0	20	2,387
Cheshire West and Chester	Shakerley	3,362	Tatton	1,433	710	227	0	27	0	0	36	2,433
Cheshire West and Chester	Tarporley	3,621	Eddisbury	1,818	586	184	26	26	0	0	5	2,645
Cheshire West and Chester	Tarvin and Kelsall	6,790	Eddisbury	3,330	1,139	336	51	85	0	0	18	4,959
Cheshire West and Chester	Tattenhall	3,567	Eddisbury	1,723	619	163	67	24	0	0	9	2,605
Cheshire West and Chester	Winsford Over and Verdin	10,049	Eddisbury	3,062	3,451	471	218	119	0	0	18	7,339
Cheshire West and Chester	Winsford Over and Verdin	922	Weaver Vale	253	382	28	0	13	0	0	0	676
Cheshire West and Chester	Winsford Swanlow and Dene	7,401	Eddisbury	2,265	2,510	373	170	73	0	0	14	5,405
Cheshire West and Chester	Winsford Wharton	8,015	Eddisbury	2,338	2,970	346	98	87	0	0	14	5,853
Cheshire West and Chester	Witton and Rudheath	3,905	Tatton	1,060	1,468	238	0	31	0	0	30	2,827
Cheshire West and Chester	Witton and Rudheath	2,836	Weaver Vale	759	1,238	66	0	16	0	0	0	2,079
	Total	75,423		29,443	20,689	3,133	864	759	0	0	189	55,077

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Eddisbury. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Antoinette Sandbach (CON)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	75,423
Turnout:	73.0%

Eddisbury: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Eddisbury: Overview

Introduction