Essex North East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Essex North East: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Bernard Jenkin  (CON)
County/Area:Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:79,347
Turnout:70.9%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON35,89963.8%
LAB13,89624.7%
LIB3,4156.1%
Green1,3942.5%
UKIP1,3762.4%
OTH1870.3%
MIN720.1%
CON Majority22,00339.1%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Essex North East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Essex North East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Essex North East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Clacton

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Clacton, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: ClactonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TendringAlton Park3,420Harwich and Clacton1,2629105017739012132,463
TendringBeaumont and Thorpe1,782Harwich and Clacton8741962364160441,181
TendringBockings Elm4,036Harwich and Clacton1,4406255221734012142,394
TendringBurrsville1,782Harwich and Clacton6242412488420661,031
TendringFrinton3,375Harwich and Clacton1,5133213910831027302,069
TendringGolf Green3,990Harwich and Clacton1,3048722819631024272,482
TendringHamford3,259Harwich and Clacton1,3033813917827027301,985
TendringHaven1,796Harwich and Clacton699231184514023251,055
TendringHolland and Kirby3,809Harwich and Clacton1,6334484922036032362,454
TendringHomelands1,706Harwich and Clacton670197128111066983
TendringLittle Clacton and Weeley3,797Essex North East1,5684484920034033372,369
TendringPeter Bruff3,238Harwich and Clacton1,34850413320535013142,252
TendringPier3,326Harwich and Clacton1,3588633618843013142,515
TendringRush Green3,428Harwich and Clacton1,3188673020835017192,494
TendringSt Bartholomews3,939Harwich and Clacton1,522498489931037412,276
TendringSt James3,325Harwich and Clacton1,4014584018329028312,170
TendringSt Johns3,814Harwich and Clacton1,3556895317090015172,389
TendringSt Marys3,614Harwich and Clacton1,4758205222338018202,646
TendringSt Osyth and Point Clear3,673Essex North East1,446549269327039432,223
TendringSt Pauls3,761Harwich and Clacton1,5704874823140036402,452
TendringWalton3,339Harwich and Clacton1,3455973818235030332,260
 Total68,209 27,02811,2028873,356718045250044,143

The full details of these calculations are given on the Clacton seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Harwich and North Essex

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Harwich and North Essex, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Harwich and North EssexTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ColchesterDedham and Langham2,334Essex North East1,1953008828350051,651
ColchesterEast Donyland1,845Colchester6447166630350021,493
ColchesterFordham and Stour4,180Essex North East2,07461117953650042,986
ColchesterGreat Tey2,138Essex North East99830011366310011,509
ColchesterPyefleet2,087Essex North East1,0262878126350011,456
ColchesterWest Bergholt and Eight Ash Green3,822Essex North East1,8176341831366700132,850
ColchesterWest Mersea5,747Essex North East2,6148832152089800104,028
ColchesterWivenhoe Cross1,627Essex North East1,193919298116860032,615
ColchesterWivenhoe Quay4,049Essex North East1,4691,12626652920033,008
TendringAlresford1,677Essex North East64629714525140021,129
TendringArdleigh and Little Bromley1,846Essex North East9173002823100011,279
TendringBradfield, Wrabness and Wix1,828Essex North East8113243165130051,249
TendringBrightlingsea6,398Essex North East2,6971,31720210616000484,530
TendringGreat and Little Oakley1,655Harwich and Clacton7293413483120081,207
TendringGreat Bentley1,751Essex North East83626611026140041,256
TendringHarwich East1,779Harwich and Clacton59279049372100101,499
TendringHarwich East Central3,656Harwich and Clacton1,2711,28898148340042,843
TendringHarwich West3,902Harwich and Clacton1,4231,08394161270042,792
TendringHarwich West Central3,792Harwich and Clacton1,2901,2949563300042,776
TendringLawford3,364Essex North East1,4867458550560032,425
TendringManningtree, Mistley, Little Bentley and Tendring3,562Essex North East1,7176668851650022,589
TendringRamsey and Parkeston1,677Harwich and Clacton6805174382150031,340
TendringThorrington, Frating, Elmstead and Great Bromley3,724Essex North East1,79656019852270022,635
 Total68,440 29,92115,5642,7891,6871,0420014251,145

The full details of these calculations are given on the Harwich and North Essex seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Witham

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Witham, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WithamTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BraintreeCoggeshall3,999Braintree1,9707299801140002,911
BraintreeGreat Notley and Black Notley1,792Braintree995294470410001,377
BraintreeHatfield Peverel and Terling4,689Witham and Maldon2,4266789701100003,311
BraintreeKelvedon and Feering4,251Braintree2,04583611501300003,126
BraintreeSilver End and Cressing3,409Braintree1,5957479301360002,571
BraintreeWitham Central4,147Witham and Maldon1,75299728401330003,166
BraintreeWitham North4,759Witham and Maldon1,9181,43525401610003,768
BraintreeWitham South4,260Witham and Maldon1,9951,00022601050003,326
BraintreeWitham West4,801Witham and Maldon2,0471,46221601490003,874
ColchesterBirch and Winstree4,233Essex North East2,3055701800890003,144
ColchesterCopford and West Stanway1,468Essex North East783180690290001,061
ColchesterMarks Tey1,983Essex North East874403890550001,421
ColchesterStanway6,329Essex North East2,7561,18548501720004,598
ColchesterTiptree5,864Essex North East2,8751,02620701200004,228
MaldonGreat Totham2,851Witham and Maldon1,586349500820002,067
MaldonTollesbury1,571Witham and Maldon630384390460001,099
MaldonTolleshunt D'Arcy3,167Witham and Maldon1,5444791320900002,245
MaldonWickham Bishops and Woodham2,830Witham and Maldon1,575270350710001,951
 Total66,403 31,67113,0242,71601,83300049,244

The full details of these calculations are given on the Witham seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Essex North East

The new seat of Essex North East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Essex North East
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ColchesterBirch and Winstree4,415Witham2,3055701800890003,144
ColchesterCopford and West Stanway1,489Witham783180690290001,061
ColchesterDedham and Langham2,300Harwich and North Essex1,1953008828350051,651
ColchesterFordham and Stour4,163Harwich and North Essex2,07461117953650042,986
ColchesterGreat Tey2,103Harwich and North Essex99830011366310011,509
ColchesterMarks Tey1,994Witham874403890550001,421
ColchesterPyefleet2,029Harwich and North Essex1,0262878126350011,456
ColchesterStanway6,457Witham2,7561,18548501720004,598
ColchesterTiptree5,937Witham2,8751,02620701200004,228
ColchesterWest Bergholt and Eight Ash Green3,973Harwich and North Essex1,8176341831366700132,850
ColchesterWest Mersea5,615Harwich and North Essex2,6148832152089800104,028
ColchesterWivenhoe Cross3,645Harwich and North Essex1,193919298116860032,615
ColchesterWivenhoe Quay4,194Harwich and North Essex1,4691,12626652920033,008
TendringAlresford1,573Harwich and North Essex64629714525140021,129
TendringArdleigh and Little Bromley1,781Harwich and North Essex9173002823100011,279
TendringBradfield, Wrabness and Wix1,742Harwich and North Essex8113243165130051,249
TendringBrightlingsea6,314Harwich and North Essex2,6971,31720210616000484,530
TendringGreat Bentley1,751Harwich and North Essex83626611026140041,256
TendringLawford3,380Harwich and North Essex1,4867458550560032,425
TendringLittle Clacton and Weeley3,717Clacton1,5684484920034033372,369
TendringManningtree, Mistley, Little Bentley and Tendring3,612Harwich and North Essex1,7176668851650022,589
TendringSt Osyth and Point Clear3,489Clacton1,446549269327039432,223
TendringThorrington, Frating, Elmstead and Great Bromley3,674Harwich and North Essex1,79656019852270022,635
 Total79,347 35,89913,8963,4151,3761,39407218756,239

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Essex North East. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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