New Seat Details - Hampshire North East

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Hampshire North East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	35,109	62.1%
LAB	10,421	18.4%
LIB	8,238	14.6%
Green	1,476	2.6%
UKIP	925	1.6%
OTH	330	0.6%
CON Majority	24,688	43.7%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Hampshire North East: Map

List of old seats forming part of Hampshire North East

Old seat: Aldershot

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Aldershot, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Aldershot				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Hart	Blackwater and Hawley	5,460	Hampshire North East	2,029	847	532	154	48	0	0	0	3,610
Hart	Yateley East	1,772	Hampshire North East	677	264	161	46	16	0	0	0	1,164
Rushmoor	Aldershot Park	5,177	Aldershot	1,630	1,367	172	140	46	0	0	0	3,355
Rushmoor	Cherrywood	5,057	Aldershot	1,642	1,836	350	163	61	0	0	0	4,052
Rushmoor	Cove and Southwood	5,276	Aldershot	2,166	929	180	138	109	0	0	0	3,522
Rushmoor	Empress	4,259	Aldershot	1,665	621	236	54	88	0	0	0	2,664
Rushmoor	Fernhill	5,190	Aldershot	2,062	915	255	143	97	0	0	0	3,472
Rushmoor	Knellwood	5,442	Aldershot	2,262	825	181	133	108	0	0	0	3,509
Rushmoor	Manor Park	5,447	Aldershot	2,120	1,457	206	157	58	0	0	0	3,998
Rushmoor	North Town	4,547	Aldershot	1,415	1,467	158	128	40	0	0	0	3,208
Rushmoor	Rowhill	4,994	Aldershot	1,783	1,022	179	138	110	0	0	0	3,232
Rushmoor	St John's	4,966	Aldershot	2,104	841	167	131	101	0	0	0	3,344
Rushmoor	St Mark's	4,763	Aldershot	1,883	842	423	61	98	0	0	0	3,307
Rushmoor	Wellington	2,471	Aldershot	1,761	1,316	129	62	26	0	0	0	3,294
Rushmoor	West Heath	4,898	Aldershot	1,756	927	308	148	83	0	0	0	3,222
	Total	69,719		26,955	15,476	3,637	1,796	1,089	0	0	0	48,953

The full details of these calculations are given on the Aldershot seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Hampshire East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hampshire East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hampshire East				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
East Hampshire	Alton Amery	1,762	Hampshire North East	743	316	329	0	30	0	0	9	1,427
East Hampshire	Alton Ashdell	1,891	Hampshire North East	884	253	240	0	33	0	0	14	1,424
East Hampshire	Alton Eastbrooke	1,941	Hampshire North East	828	498	334	0	36	0	0	11	1,707
East Hampshire	Alton Westbrooke	2,179	Hampshire North East	911	394	271	0	121	0	0	49	1,746
East Hampshire	Alton Whitedown	2,310	Hampshire North East	947	333	416	0	40	0	0	11	1,747
East Hampshire	Alton Wooteys	1,670	Hampshire North East	699	365	263	0	30	0	0	11	1,368
East Hampshire	Binsted and Bentley	2,272	Hampshire East	1,399	147	137	0	31	0	0	14	1,728
East Hampshire	Bramshott and Liphook	6,472	Hampshire East	3,008	819	943	0	104	0	0	64	4,938
East Hampshire	Downland	2,019	Hampshire East	1,132	115	108	0	25	0	0	12	1,392
East Hampshire	East Meon	1,768	Hampshire East	907	219	154	0	76	0	0	8	1,364
East Hampshire	Four Marks and Medstead	5,045	Hampshire East	2,656	456	302	0	64	0	0	35	3,513
East Hampshire	Froxfield and Steep	1,887	Hampshire East	1,316	144	130	0	33	0	0	8	1,631
East Hampshire	Grayshott	1,812	Hampshire East	1,007	160	205	0	26	0	0	9	1,407
East Hampshire	Headley	4,324	Hampshire East	2,259	427	477	0	61	0	0	22	3,246
East Hampshire	Holybourne and Froyle	2,421	Hampshire North East	1,243	175	155	0	88	0	0	9	1,670
East Hampshire	Lindford	2,026	Hampshire East	1,108	251	239	0	29	0	0	13	1,640
East Hampshire	Liss	3,695	Hampshire East	1,875	553	334	0	184	0	0	68	3,014
East Hampshire	Petersfield Bell Hill	1,737	Hampshire East	799	327	215	0	88	0	0	9	1,438
East Hampshire	Petersfield Causeway	1,918	Hampshire East	871	370	248	0	91	0	0	10	1,590
East Hampshire	Petersfield Heath	1,542	Hampshire East	810	239	192	0	81	0	0	14	1,336
East Hampshire	Petersfield Rother	1,897	Hampshire East	860	222	151	0	78	0	0	7	1,318
East Hampshire	Petersfield St Marys	1,990	Hampshire East	1,062	269	173	0	97	0	0	10	1,611
East Hampshire	Petersfield St Peters	1,778	Hampshire East	743	321	252	0	90	0	0	14	1,420
East Hampshire	Ropley and Tisted	1,764	Hampshire East	1,044	116	99	0	25	0	0	7	1,291
East Hampshire	Selborne	1,799	Hampshire East	850	161	244	0	25	0	0	34	1,314
East Hampshire	The Hangers and Forest	1,849	Hampshire East	1,021	217	128	0	26	0	0	37	1,429
East Hampshire	Whitehill Chase	1,603	Hampshire East	742	255	396	0	30	0	0	10	1,433
East Hampshire	Whitehill Deadwater	1,725	Hampshire East	859	416	306	0	32	0	0	12	1,625
East Hampshire	Whitehill Hogmoor	1,617	Hampshire East	831	225	262	0	27	0	0	10	1,355
East Hampshire	Whitehill Pinewood	1,727	Hampshire East	984	388	501	0	32	0	0	15	1,920
East Hampshire	Whitehill Walldown	1,623	Hampshire East	864	258	198	0	28	0	0	17	1,365
	Total	70,063		35,262	9,409	8,402	0	1,761	0	0	573	55,407

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hampshire East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Hampshire North East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hampshire North East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hampshire North East				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Basingstoke and Deane	Bramley and Sherfield	4,261	Hampshire North West	2,375	620	300	68	85	0	0	29	3,477
Basingstoke and Deane	Pamber and Silchester	3,598	Hampshire North West	1,925	455	196	44	60	0	0	12	2,692
Basingstoke and Deane	Sherborne St John	1,580	Hampshire North West	906	174	109	9	25	0	0	7	1,230
Basingstoke and Deane	Upton Grey and The Candovers	2,240	Hampshire North East	1,312	215	99	11	27	0	0	5	1,669
Hart	Crookham East	5,834	Aldershot	3,080	867	423	111	136	0	0	53	4,670
Hart	Crookham West and Ewshot	6,394	Aldershot	3,319	888	422	103	136	0	0	49	4,917
Hart	Fleet Central	6,374	Hampshire North East	3,239	1,053	480	116	153	0	0	67	5,108
Hart	Fleet East	5,670	Hampshire North East	2,883	815	633	76	121	0	0	12	4,540
Hart	Fleet West	5,820	Hampshire North East	3,346	795	468	87	123	0	0	39	4,858
Hart	Hartley Wintney	6,713	Hampshire North East	3,348	715	773	78	119	0	0	12	5,045
Hart	Hook	6,123	Hampshire North East	3,281	968	536	86	121	0	0	13	5,005
Hart	Odiham	6,302	Hampshire North East	3,848	740	661	87	129	0	0	43	5,508
Hart	Yateley East	4,819	Hampshire North East	1,970	716	777	76	99	0	0	11	3,649
Hart	Yateley West	6,482	Hampshire North East	2,921	959	1,110	108	142	0	0	14	5,254
	Total	72,210		37,753	9,980	6,987	1,060	1,476	0	0	366	57,622

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hampshire North East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Hampshire North East

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Hampshire North East
Basingstoke and Deane	Upton Grey and The Candovers	2,186	Hampshire North East	1,312	215	99	11	27	0	0	5	1,669
East Hampshire	Alton Amery	1,909	Hampshire East	743	316	329	0	30	0	0	9	1,427
East Hampshire	Alton Ashdell	1,907	Hampshire East	884	253	240	0	33	0	0	14	1,424
East Hampshire	Alton Eastbrooke	2,285	Hampshire East	828	498	334	0	36	0	0	11	1,707
East Hampshire	Alton Westbrooke	2,337	Hampshire East	911	394	271	0	121	0	0	49	1,746
East Hampshire	Alton Whitedown	2,338	Hampshire East	947	333	416	0	40	0	0	11	1,747
East Hampshire	Alton Wooteys	1,830	Hampshire East	699	365	263	0	30	0	0	11	1,368
East Hampshire	Holybourne and Froyle	2,235	Hampshire East	1,243	175	155	0	88	0	0	9	1,670
Hart	Blackwater and Hawley	5,619	Aldershot	2,029	847	532	154	48	0	0	0	3,610
Hart	Fleet Central	6,689	Hampshire North East	3,239	1,053	480	116	153	0	0	67	5,108
Hart	Fleet East	5,948	Hampshire North East	2,883	815	633	76	121	0	0	12	4,540
Hart	Fleet West	6,364	Hampshire North East	3,346	795	468	87	123	0	0	39	4,858
Hart	Hartley Wintney	6,609	Hampshire North East	3,348	715	773	78	119	0	0	12	5,045
Hart	Hook	6,555	Hampshire North East	3,281	968	536	86	121	0	0	13	5,005
Hart	Odiham	7,215	Hampshire North East	3,848	740	661	87	129	0	0	43	5,508
Hart	Yateley East	1,813	Aldershot	677	264	161	46	16	0	0	0	1,164
Hart	Yateley East	4,779	Hampshire North East	1,970	716	777	76	99	0	0	11	3,649
Hart	Yateley West	6,880	Hampshire North East	2,921	959	1,110	108	142	0	0	14	5,254
	Total	75,498		35,109	10,421	8,238	925	1,476	0	0	330	56,499

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Hampshire North East. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Ranil Jayawardena (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	75,498
Turnout:	74.8%

Hampshire North East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Hampshire North East: Overview

Introduction