Highland North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Highland North: Overview

 Projection: SNP seat 

Implied MP at 2019: Unknown (changed seat)  (SNP)
County/Area: Highland (Scotland)
Electorate: 74,945
Turnout: 69.4%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
SNP21,07040.5%
LIB16,91432.5%
CON9,12717.6%
LAB3,0365.8%
UKIP1,4832.9%
OTH3530.7%
Green220.0%
SNP Majority4,1568.0%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Highland North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Highland North constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position23° Left23° Left
National Position7° Glo15° Glo
Social Position12° Lib13° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %47%38%52%
British Identity25%27%29%
Good Health53%52%48%
UK Born96%93%88%
Good Education33%36%39%
Good Job43%49%51%
High SEC56%55%51%
Average Age51.948.748.5
ABC1 Class43%50%54%

Highland North ranks #422 for "Leave", #563 for "Right", #465 for "National" and #536 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Highland North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Highland North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Highland North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HighlandNorth, West and Central Sutherland4,619Highland North518901,1718401,232003,095
HighlandThurso6,178Highland North5794241,54419801,395004,140
HighlandWick5,724Highland North4213231,29015301,648003,835
HighlandLandward Caithness8,031Highland North1,1352072,11416101,766005,383
HighlandEast Sutherland and Edderton5,779Highland North6773771,38218401,253003,873
HighlandCromarty Firth9,660Highland North9243452,28422202,701006,476
HighlandTain and Easter Ross6,940Highland North9221701,91913601,505004,652
 Total46,931 5,1761,93611,7041,138011,5000031,454

The full details of these calculations are given on the Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HighlandCaol and Mallaig33Highland Central81201110023
HighlandAird and Loch Ness6,390Highland Central;
Highland North
1,606152419641012,146004,488
HighlandInverness West6,513Highland Central1,211291668961522,156004,574
HighlandInverness Central10,807Highland Central1,6631,1595601822893,735007,588
HighlandInverness Ness-Side9,046Highland Central1,8434398841412232,822006,352
HighlandInverness Millburn6,620Highland Central1,1916773801091732,119004,649
HighlandCulloden and Ardersier8,994Highland Central1,9833736441211923,003006,316
HighlandNairn9,215Moray and Nairn1,9213455041161843,400006,470
HighlandInverness South9,982Highland Central2,1633111,0611191883,167007,009
HighlandBadenoch and Strathspey10,458Highland Central2,2183767241312073,688007,344
 Total78,058 15,8074,1245,8461,0791,71026,2470054,813

The full details of these calculations are given on the Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ross Skye and Lochaber

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ross Skye and Lochaber, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ross Skye and LochaberTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HighlandWester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh9,737Highland Central;
Highland North
1,1662852,18410703,26801487,158
HighlandDingwall and Seaforth9,701Highland North1,1255691,77714403,40201167,133
HighlandBlack Isle8,214Highland North1,3682441,5209102,70901076,039
HighlandEilean a' Chèo8,144Highland Central9713071,5739902,92501135,988
HighlandCaol and Mallaig6,955Argyll, Bute and South West Highland;
Highland Central
9803111,0769102,55601005,114
HighlandAird and Loch Ness2,525Highland Central;
Highland North
392733892809390351,856
HighlandFort William and Ardnamurchan8,955Argyll, Bute and South West Highland8976601,30315003,46401096,583
 Total54,231 6,8992,4499,822710019,263072839,871

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ross Skye and Lochaber seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Highland North

The new seat of Highland North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Highland North
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HighlandAird and Loch Ness1,375Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey3463390142246200967
HighlandAird and Loch Ness1,906Ross Skye and Lochaber296552942107090261,401
HighlandBlack Isle8,214Ross Skye and Lochaber1,3682441,5209102,70901076,039
HighlandCromarty Firth9,660Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross9243452,28422202,701006,476
HighlandDingwall and Seaforth9,701Ross Skye and Lochaber1,1255691,77714403,40201167,133
HighlandEast Sutherland and Edderton5,779Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross6773771,38218401,253003,873
HighlandLandward Caithness8,031Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross1,1352072,11416101,766005,383
HighlandNorth, West and Central Sutherland4,619Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross518901,1718401,232003,095
HighlandTain and Easter Ross6,940Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross9221701,91913601,505004,652
HighlandThurso6,178Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross5794241,54419801,395004,140
HighlandWester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh6,817Ross Skye and Lochaber8162001,5297502,28801045,012
HighlandWick5,724Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross4213231,29015301,648003,835
 Total74,944 9,1273,03716,9141,4832221,070035352,006

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Highland North. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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