Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley: Overview

 Projection: SNP seat 

Implied MP at 2019: Alan Brown  (SNP)
County/Area: Ayrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Electorate: 82,595
Turnout: 64.4%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
SNP25,53948.0%
CON13,78425.9%
LAB11,02320.7%
LIB2,5744.8%
OTH2910.5%
SNP Majority11,75522.1%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position30° Left23° Left
National Position10° Glo15° Glo
Social Position10° Lib13° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %42%38%52%
British Identity24%27%29%
Good Health49%52%48%
UK Born98%93%88%
Good Education27%36%39%
Good Job41%49%51%
High SEC46%55%51%
Average Age49.548.748.5
ABC1 Class39%50%54%

Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley ranks #482 for "Leave", #594 for "Right", #482 for "National" and #522 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Ayr Carrick and Cumnock

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ayr Carrick and Cumnock, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ayr Carrick and CumnockTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East AyrshireCumnock and New Cumnock10,985Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley2,2111,534336003,030007,111
East AyrshireDoon Valley8,927Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley1,8071,334269002,369005,779
South AyrshireAyr North11,327Ayr and Carrick2,0341,530370003,398007,332
South AyrshireAyr East11,339Ayr and Carrick3,182510371003,277007,340
South AyrshireAyr West11,534Ayr and Carrick4,102324290002,751007,467
South AyrshireMaybole, North Carrick and Coylton10,056Ayr and Carrick2,601501284003,124006,510
South AyrshireGirvan and South Carrick7,802Ayr and Carrick2,006485238002,322005,051
 Total71,970 17,9436,2182,1580020,2710046,590

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ayr Carrick and Cumnock seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ayrshire Central

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ayrshire Central, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ayrshire CentralTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North AyrshireIrvine West15,592Arran and Cunninghame2,7022,228558004,9150010,403
North AyrshireIrvine East15,934Arran and Cunninghame2,9341,789651005,2580010,632
North AyrshireKilwinning2,232Arran and Cunninghame4043097000706001,489
South AyrshireTroon11,999Ayr and Carrick3,782520300003,403008,005
South AyrshirePrestwick12,291Ayr and Carrick3,562585409003,645008,201
South AyrshireAyr North1,693Ayr and Carrick2782714900532001,130
South AyrshireKyle9,024Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley2,272819222002,708006,021
South AyrshireMaybole, North Carrick and Coylton976Ayr and Carrick24762250031800652
 Total69,741 16,1816,5832,2840021,4850046,533

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ayrshire Central seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Kilmarnock and Loudoun

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Kilmarnock and Loudoun, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Kilmarnock and LoudounTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East AyrshireAnnick9,522Eastwood and Loudoun2,014677344002,9990526,086
East AyrshireKilmarnock North9,852Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley1,3641,119313003,4470546,297
East AyrshireKilmarnock West and Crosshouse12,101Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley2,0571,119407004,0860667,735
East AyrshireKilmarnock East and Hurlford11,677Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley1,5131,689397003,8020637,464
East AyrshireKilmarnock South8,543Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley1,0011,442280002,6910465,460
East AyrshireIrvine Valley11,524Eastwood and Loudoun;
Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley
2,0831,013360003,8480637,367
East AyrshireBallochmyle11,269Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley1,5211,944343003,3350617,204
East AyrshireCumnock and New Cumnock28Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley4610080019
 Total74,516 11,5579,0092,4450024,216040547,632

The full details of these calculations are given on the Kilmarnock and Loudoun seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley

The new seat of Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East AyrshireBallochmyle11,269Kilmarnock and Loudoun1,5211,944343003,3350617,204
East AyrshireCumnock and New Cumnock10,985Ayr Carrick and Cumnock2,2111,534336003,030007,111
East AyrshireCumnock and New Cumnock28Kilmarnock and Loudoun4610080019
East AyrshireDoon Valley8,927Ayr Carrick and Cumnock1,8071,334269002,369005,779
East AyrshireIrvine Valley189Kilmarnock and Loudoun34176006301121
East AyrshireKilmarnock East and Hurlford11,677Kilmarnock and Loudoun1,5131,689397003,8020637,464
East AyrshireKilmarnock North9,852Kilmarnock and Loudoun1,3641,119313003,4470546,297
East AyrshireKilmarnock South8,543Kilmarnock and Loudoun1,0011,442280002,6910465,460
East AyrshireKilmarnock West and Crosshouse12,101Kilmarnock and Loudoun2,0571,119407004,0860667,735
South AyrshireKyle9,024Ayrshire Central2,272819222002,708006,021
 Total82,595 13,78411,0232,5740025,539029153,211

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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