New Seat Details

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Oxford been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	37,037	60.7%
CON	13,984	22.9%
LIB	7,929	13.0%
Green	1,786	2.9%
OTH	256	0.4%
UKIP	38	0.1%
LAB Majority	23,053	37.8%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Oxford: Map

List of old seats forming part of Oxford

Old seat: Oxford East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Oxford East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Oxford East				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Oxford	Barton and Sandhills	4,614	Oxford	706	2,160	229	0	92	0	0	25	3,212
Oxford	Blackbird Leys	3,790	Oxford	388	2,130	125	0	54	0	0	16	2,713
Oxford	Carfax	1,926	Oxford	667	1,690	376	0	99	0	0	33	2,865
Oxford	Churchill	3,715	Oxford	597	2,311	264	0	110	0	0	7	3,289
Oxford	Cowley	3,937	Oxford	593	1,934	275	0	106	0	0	30	2,938
Oxford	Cowley Marsh	3,982	Oxford	789	1,968	246	0	106	0	0	8	3,117
Oxford	Headington	3,843	Oxford	640	1,382	455	0	93	0	0	4	2,574
Oxford	Headington Hill and Northway	3,109	Oxford	811	1,616	225	0	88	0	0	18	2,758
Oxford	Hinksey Park	3,717	Oxford	456	1,845	242	0	102	0	0	5	2,650
Oxford	Holywell	1,573	Oxford	640	1,427	240	0	86	0	0	33	2,426
Oxford	Iffley Fields	3,645	Oxford	452	1,785	202	0	105	0	0	5	2,549
Oxford	Littlemore	4,305	Oxford	758	1,842	183	0	84	0	0	6	2,873
Oxford	Lye Valley	4,327	Oxford	833	2,125	225	0	98	0	0	10	3,291
Oxford	Marston	4,232	Oxford	710	1,715	270	0	96	0	0	5	2,796
Oxford	Northfield Brook	4,081	Oxford	517	2,339	176	0	83	0	0	6	3,121
Oxford	Quarry and Risinghurst	4,418	Oxford	761	1,510	428	0	87	0	0	5	2,791
Oxford	Rose Hill and Iffley	4,235	Oxford	522	1,979	293	0	94	0	0	9	2,897
Oxford	St Clement's	3,767	Oxford	517	1,771	247	0	101	0	0	23	2,659
Oxford	St Mary's	3,077	Oxford	477	1,590	203	0	102	0	0	8	2,380
	Total	70,293		11,834	35,119	4,904	0	1,786	0	0	256	53,899

The full details of these calculations are given on the Oxford East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Oxford West and Abingdon

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Oxford West and Abingdon, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Oxford West and Abingdon				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Cherwell	Kidlington North	3,973	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,379	379	1,261	74	0	0	0	0	3,093
Cherwell	Kidlington South	6,112	Abingdon and Oxford North	2,216	682	1,669	110	0	0	0	0	4,677
Cherwell	Yarnton, Gosford and Water Eaton	4,047	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,462	271	884	29	0	0	0	0	2,646
Oxford	Jericho and Osney	4,040	Oxford	1,131	1,126	1,520	20	0	0	0	0	3,797
Oxford	North	2,936	Oxford	1,019	792	1,505	18	0	0	0	0	3,334
Oxford	St Margaret's	2,965	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,084	585	1,410	16	0	0	0	0	3,095
Oxford	Summertown	4,197	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,314	513	2,236	22	0	0	0	0	4,085
Oxford	Wolvercote	4,281	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,283	341	1,686	19	0	0	0	0	3,329
Vale of White Horse	Abingdon Abbey Northcourt	4,333	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,518	414	1,575	25	0	0	0	0	3,532
Vale of White Horse	Abingdon Caldecott	5,083	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,849	505	1,728	88	0	0	0	0	4,170
Vale of White Horse	Abingdon Dunmore	4,545	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,671	260	1,522	29	0	0	0	0	3,482
Vale of White Horse	Abingdon Fitzharris	4,616	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,656	380	1,548	35	0	0	0	0	3,619
Vale of White Horse	Abingdon Peachcroft	5,178	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,815	356	1,716	90	0	0	0	0	3,977
Vale of White Horse	Botley and Sunningwell	4,240	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,374	280	1,639	59	0	0	0	0	3,352
Vale of White Horse	Cumnor	4,645	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,432	220	1,584	58	0	0	0	0	3,294
Vale of White Horse	Kennington and Radley	5,081	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,828	295	1,757	38	0	0	0	0	3,918
Vale of White Horse	Marcham	86	Abingdon and Oxford North	50	3	45	1	0	0	0	0	99
Vale of White Horse	Thames	737	Wantage	337	21	194	9	0	0	0	0	561
Vale of White Horse	Wootton	2,580	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,020	149	776	13	0	0	0	0	1,958
	Total	73,675		25,438	7,572	26,255	753	0	0	0	0	60,018

The full details of these calculations are given on the Oxford West and Abingdon seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Oxford

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Oxford
Oxford	Barton and Sandhills	4,670	Oxford East	706	2,160	229	0	92	0	0	25	3,212
Oxford	Blackbird Leys	3,945	Oxford East	388	2,130	125	0	54	0	0	16	2,713
Oxford	Carfax	4,166	Oxford East	667	1,690	376	0	99	0	0	33	2,865
Oxford	Churchill	4,783	Oxford East	597	2,311	264	0	110	0	0	7	3,289
Oxford	Cowley	4,271	Oxford East	593	1,934	275	0	106	0	0	30	2,938
Oxford	Cowley Marsh	4,531	Oxford East	789	1,968	246	0	106	0	0	8	3,117
Oxford	Headington	3,743	Oxford East	640	1,382	455	0	93	0	0	4	2,574
Oxford	Headington Hill and Northway	4,010	Oxford East	811	1,616	225	0	88	0	0	18	2,758
Oxford	Hinksey Park	3,852	Oxford East	456	1,845	242	0	102	0	0	5	2,650
Oxford	Holywell	3,527	Oxford East	640	1,427	240	0	86	0	0	33	2,426
Oxford	Iffley Fields	3,707	Oxford East	452	1,785	202	0	105	0	0	5	2,549
Oxford	Jericho and Osney	5,016	Oxford West and Abingdon	1,131	1,126	1,520	20	0	0	0	0	3,797
Oxford	Littlemore	4,177	Oxford East	758	1,842	183	0	84	0	0	6	2,873
Oxford	Lye Valley	4,784	Oxford East	833	2,125	225	0	98	0	0	10	3,291
Oxford	Marston	4,064	Oxford East	710	1,715	270	0	96	0	0	5	2,796
Oxford	North	4,404	Oxford West and Abingdon	1,019	792	1,505	18	0	0	0	0	3,334
Oxford	Northfield Brook	4,538	Oxford East	517	2,339	176	0	83	0	0	6	3,121
Oxford	Quarry and Risinghurst	4,056	Oxford East	761	1,510	428	0	87	0	0	5	2,791
Oxford	Rose Hill and Iffley	4,212	Oxford East	522	1,979	293	0	94	0	0	9	2,897
Oxford	St Clement's	3,865	Oxford East	517	1,771	247	0	101	0	0	23	2,659
Oxford	St Mary's	3,459	Oxford East	477	1,590	203	0	102	0	0	8	2,380
	Total	87,780		13,984	37,037	7,929	38	1,786	0	0	256	61,030

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Oxford. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Anneliese Dodds (LAB)
County/Area:	Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate:	87,780
Turnout:	69.5%

Oxford: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Oxford: Overview

Introduction