St Albans: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

St Albans: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Anne Main  (CON)
County/Area:Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:77,837
Turnout:76.4%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON26,42744.5%
LIB17,57729.6%
LAB14,40824.2%
Green8371.4%
UKIP2010.3%
CON Majority8,85014.9%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for St Albans been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

St Albans: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of St Albans

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: St Albans

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of St Albans, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: St AlbansTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
St AlbansAshley5,344St Albans1,6411,3081,6060770004,632
St AlbansBatchwood5,128St Albans1,7601,4621,2150680004,505
St AlbansClarence4,887St Albans1,5458151,5870680004,015
St AlbansColney Heath4,228St Albans1,4036141,4070470003,471
St AlbansCunningham4,525St Albans1,3829551,4290590003,825
St AlbansLondon Colney6,642Hertsmere2,3811,7841,3230670005,555
St AlbansMarshalswick North4,820St Albans1,7196351,3880550003,797
St AlbansMarshalswick South5,118St Albans2,0797901,3480660004,283
St AlbansPark Street5,464St Albans2,0457401,4320530004,270
St AlbansSopwell4,950St Albans1,3491,4531,4260710004,299
St AlbansSt Peters5,512St Albans2,0051,1481,1870870004,427
St AlbansSt Stephen5,183St Albans2,2144891,0780430003,824
St AlbansVerulam5,260St Albans1,9754791,2150560003,725
Three RiversAbbots Langley and Bedmond1,080St Albans36414730004000815
Three RiversGade Valley1,968Hemel Hempstead710319521070001,557
 Total70,109 24,57213,13818,462082800057,000

The full details of these calculations are given on the St Albans seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Watford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Watford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WatfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Three RiversAbbots Langley and Bedmond3,892St Albans1,45684025831160002,601
Three RiversCarpenders Park3,623Watford1,37786917663120002,497
Three RiversGade Valley2,958Hemel Hempstead1,16868118724110002,071
Three RiversLeavesden5,111St Albans1,7501,18635083190003,388
Three RiversOxhey Hall and Hayling2,268Watford83465816240100001,704
WatfordCallowland4,815Watford1,4541,90831289600003,823
WatfordCentral5,543Watford1,4922,10043694660004,188
WatfordHolywell5,624Watford1,4732,58724884560004,448
WatfordLeggatts5,518Watford1,6531,83323082480003,846
WatfordMeriden5,679Watford1,7771,72039497480004,036
WatfordNascot6,002Watford2,0761,32937578540003,912
WatfordOxhey5,054Watford1,5961,33046240640003,492
WatfordPark5,699Watford2,1131,34438975540003,975
WatfordStanborough5,189Watford1,8101,37140168470003,697
WatfordTudor4,430Watford1,6141,09731567420003,135
WatfordVicarage4,698Watford1,3642,44629283650004,250
WatfordWoodside5,233St Albans1,7261,33834786470003,544
 Total81,336 26,73324,6375,3341,18471900058,607

The full details of these calculations are given on the Watford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Welwyn Hatfield

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Welwyn Hatfield, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Welwyn HatfieldTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
St AlbansColney Heath38St Albans14941100029
Welwyn HatfieldBrookmans Park and Little Heath4,516Welwyn Hatfield2,10958012841340022,894
Welwyn HatfieldHaldens4,667Welwyn Hatfield1,4211,338212106560053,138
Welwyn HatfieldHandside5,130Welwyn Hatfield1,87291642949660053,337
Welwyn HatfieldHatfield Central4,137Welwyn Hatfield1,3831,6652311186000193,476
Welwyn HatfieldHatfield East4,501Welwyn Hatfield1,6871,2362231025600193,323
Welwyn HatfieldHatfield South3,036Welwyn Hatfield1,4091,7573651244500313,731
Welwyn HatfieldHatfield Villages3,522Welwyn Hatfield2,1141,546236124700074,097
Welwyn HatfieldHatfield West5,218Welwyn Hatfield2,0311,9333171517900224,533
Welwyn HatfieldHollybush4,985Welwyn Hatfield1,7331,460199112540053,563
Welwyn HatfieldHowlands4,398Welwyn Hatfield1,4361,18518997510052,963
Welwyn HatfieldPanshanger4,671Welwyn Hatfield1,7651,0881931144900223,231
Welwyn HatfieldPeartree5,135Welwyn Hatfield1,4261,686433120630053,733
Welwyn HatfieldSherrards4,319Welwyn Hatfield1,63195422046510042,906
Welwyn HatfieldWelham Green2,788Welwyn Hatfield1,01152020865230021,829
Welwyn HatfieldWelwyn East4,787Welwyn Hatfield2,06560916038400082,920
Welwyn HatfieldWelwyn West3,216Welwyn Hatfield1,26852589313700161,966
 Total69,064 26,37519,0073,8361,4398350017751,669

The full details of these calculations are given on the Welwyn Hatfield seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: St Albans

The new seat of St Albans is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: St Albans
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
St AlbansAshley5,918St Albans1,6411,3081,6060770004,632
St AlbansBatchwood5,754St Albans1,7601,4621,2150680004,505
St AlbansClarence5,128St Albans1,5458151,5870680004,015
St AlbansColney Heath4,433St Albans1,4036141,4070470003,471
St AlbansColney Heath40Welwyn Hatfield14941100029
St AlbansCunningham4,885St Albans1,3829551,4290590003,825
St AlbansMarshalswick North4,850St Albans1,7196351,3880550003,797
St AlbansMarshalswick South5,471St Albans2,0797901,3480660004,283
St AlbansPark Street5,453St Albans2,0457401,4320530004,270
St AlbansSopwell5,493St Albans1,3491,4531,4260710004,299
St AlbansSt Peters5,655St Albans2,0051,1481,1870870004,427
St AlbansSt Stephen4,884St Albans2,2144891,0780430003,824
St AlbansVerulam4,759St Albans1,9754791,2150560003,725
Three RiversAbbots Langley and Bedmond1,042St Albans36414730004000815
Three RiversAbbots Langley and Bedmond3,839Watford1,45684025831160002,601
Three RiversLeavesden5,002Watford1,7501,18635083190003,388
WatfordWoodside5,231Watford1,7261,33834786470003,544
 Total77,837 26,42714,40817,57720183700059,450

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of St Albans. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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