Winchester: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Winchester: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Steve Brine  (CON)
County/Area:Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:80,340
Turnout:76.6%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON35,35557.5%
LIB15,82025.7%
LAB8,10413.2%
UKIP1,0751.7%
Green1,0671.7%
OTH1110.2%
CON Majority19,53531.7%

See overview of other seats in South East.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Winchester been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Winchester: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Winchester

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Meon Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Meon Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Meon ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East HampshireClanfield and Finchdean4,252Hampshire East1,97054433145470002,937
East HampshireHorndean Catherington and Lovedean1,848Hampshire East1,04521015721210001,454
East HampshireHorndean Downs1,904Hampshire East1,11422911452230001,532
East HampshireHorndean Hazleton and Blendworth2,066Hampshire East1,07018719624230001,500
East HampshireHorndean Kings2,378Hampshire East1,24829725461340001,894
East HampshireHorndean Murray1,869Hampshire East99525119723240001,490
East HampshireRowlands Castle2,108Hampshire East1,02722520521240001,502
HavantCowplain7,272Havant3,6821,1074661022780005,635
HavantHart Plain7,402Havant3,2451,9205741121050005,956
HavantWaterloo7,927Havant3,5271,1345282313310005,751
WinchesterBishops Waltham5,261Winchester2,546776518151720004,063
WinchesterBoarhunt and Southwick1,130Winchester5961251501113000895
WinchesterCheriton and Bishops Sutton1,740Winchester1,01217313913200001,357
WinchesterDenmead5,757Winchester2,880626380132650004,083
WinchesterDroxford, Soberton and Hambledon1,682Winchester92715011515180001,225
WinchesterOwslebury and Curdridge3,107Winchester1,72427718167320002,281
WinchesterShedfield3,074Winchester1,69537220883370002,395
WinchesterSwanmore and Newtown3,394Winchester1,79539227878390002,582
WinchesterUpper Meon Valley1,588Winchester81215710634170001,126
WinchesterWhiteley2,209Fareham1,15533635367320001,943
WinchesterWickham3,163Winchester1,56044445192450002,592
 Total71,131 35,6259,9325,9011,4351,30000054,193

The full details of these calculations are given on the Meon Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Winchester

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Winchester, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WinchesterTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
EastleighChandler's Ford East3,644Test Valley1,2303121,18456240062,812
EastleighChandler's Ford West4,581Test Valley1,5832811,57061290053,529
EastleighHiltingbury East4,021Test Valley1,81421189551210062,998
EastleighHiltingbury West4,105Test Valley1,927218991462500143,221
WinchesterColden Common and Twyford4,252Test Valley1,7622681,12351240053,233
WinchesterCompton and Otterbourne3,251Test Valley1,60710767531140032,437
WinchesterItchen Valley1,575Winchester81845234570051,114
WinchesterKings Worthy3,475Winchester1,1962131,081412000142,565
WinchesterLittleton and Harestock2,716Winchester1,19812473515150022,089
WinchesterOlivers Battery and Badger Farm3,044Winchester1,0332291,04638280032,377
WinchesterSparsholt1,329Winchester768373116100061,138
WinchesterSt Barnabas4,618Winchester1,9563521,22926830053,651
WinchesterSt Bartholomew4,557Winchester1,7904961,301271040063,724
WinchesterSt John and All Saints3,935Winchester1,4611,0181,022629500213,679
WinchesterSt Luke3,365Winchester1,3337391,506258300223,708
WinchesterSt Michael4,433Winchester2,2393771,1615711100113,956
WinchesterSt Paul3,899Winchester1,7114631,530531100053,872
WinchesterThe Alresfords4,869Winchester2,1503001,22128270083,734
WinchesterWonston and Micheldever4,372Winchester2,15521991716160033,326
 Total70,041 29,7316,00919,7326958460015057,163

The full details of these calculations are given on the Winchester seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Winchester

The new seat of Winchester is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Winchester
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WinchesterBishops Waltham5,568Meon Valley2,546776518151720004,063
WinchesterBoarhunt and Southwick1,226Meon Valley5961251501113000895
WinchesterCheriton and Bishops Sutton1,860Meon Valley1,01217313913200001,357
WinchesterDenmead5,594Meon Valley2,880626380132650004,083
WinchesterDroxford, Soberton and Hambledon1,677Meon Valley92715011515180001,225
WinchesterItchen Valley1,413Winchester81845234570051,114
WinchesterKings Worthy3,252Winchester1,1962131,081412000142,565
WinchesterLittleton and Harestock2,650Winchester1,19812473515150022,089
WinchesterOlivers Battery and Badger Farm3,015Winchester1,0332291,04638280032,377
WinchesterOwslebury and Curdridge3,125Meon Valley1,72427718167320002,281
WinchesterShedfield3,280Meon Valley1,69537220883370002,395
WinchesterSparsholt1,442Winchester768373116100061,138
WinchesterSt Barnabas4,630Winchester1,9563521,22926830053,651
WinchesterSt Bartholomew4,723Winchester1,7904961,301271040063,724
WinchesterSt John and All Saints4,666Winchester1,4611,0181,022629500213,679
WinchesterSt Luke4,704Winchester1,3337391,506258300223,708
WinchesterSt Michael5,018Winchester2,2393771,1615711100113,956
WinchesterSt Paul4,911Winchester1,7114631,530531100053,872
WinchesterSwanmore and Newtown3,537Meon Valley1,79539227878390002,582
WinchesterThe Alresfords4,736Winchester2,1503001,22128270083,734
WinchesterUpper Meon Valley1,544Meon Valley81215710634170001,126
WinchesterWickham3,551Meon Valley1,56044445192450002,592
WinchesterWonston and Micheldever4,218Winchester2,15521991716160033,326
 Total80,340 35,3558,10415,8201,0751,0670011161,532

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Winchester. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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