Alyn and Deeside: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Alyn and Deeside: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Mark Tami  (LAB)
County/Area:Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate:75,403
Implied Turnout 2019:68.8%
Predicted Turnout:62.8%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB22,97244.3%53.5%
CON21,09040.7%22.2%
Reform3,1366.0%13.6%
LIB2,9155.6%3.9%
Plaid1,7673.4%2.6%
Green00.0%3.9%
OTH00.0%0.3%
LAB Majority1,8823.6%31.4%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Chance of winning
LAB
98%
CON
2%
Reform
0%
LIB
0%
Plaid
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Alyn and Deeside : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Alyn and Deeside constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position4° Left8° Left
National Position7° Nat
Social Position3° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %58%53%52%
Average Age50.751.149.5
Good Education46%49%49%
Employed60%53%58%
Homeowner72%67%63%
Car owner85%81%77%
Married46%44%45%
Ethnic White97%94%83%
Christian55%47%50%
ABC1 Class53%52%56%
Gross Household Income£38,796£36,386£42,397
Deprivation51%54%52%
Average House Price£187,720£193,404£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Alyn and Deeside: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Alyn and Deeside

The new seat of Alyn and Deeside is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Alyn and DeesideActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
FlintshireBagillt3,184DelynLABLAB
FlintshireBroughton North East1,638Alyn and DeesideLABLAB
FlintshireBroughton South3,241Alyn and DeesideLABLAB
FlintshireBuckley: Bistre East3,156Alyn and DeesideCONLAB
FlintshireBuckley: Bistre West3,125Alyn and DeesideLABLAB
FlintshireBuckley: Mountain1,982Alyn and DeesideCONLAB
FlintshireBuckley: Pentrobin3,931Alyn and DeesideCONLAB
FlintshireCaergwrle1,208Alyn and DeesideLABLAB
FlintshireConnah's Quay Central3,396Alyn and DeesideLABLAB
FlintshireConnah's Quay: Golftyn3,595Alyn and DeesideLABLAB
FlintshireConnah's Quay South3,594Alyn and DeesideLABLAB
FlintshireConnah's Quay: Wepre1,682Alyn and DeesideLABLAB
FlintshireFlint: Castle1,809DelynLABLAB
FlintshireFlint: Coleshill and Trelawny6,055DelynLABLAB
FlintshireFlint: Oakenholt1,721DelynLABLAB
FlintshireHawarden: Aston3,246Alyn and DeesideCONLAB
FlintshireEwloe4,171Alyn and DeesideCONLAB
FlintshireHawarden: Mancot3,369Alyn and DeesideLABLAB
FlintshireHigher Kinnerton1,244Alyn and DeesideCONLAB
FlintshireHope2,010Alyn and DeesideCONLAB
FlintshireLlanfynydd1,483Alyn and DeesideCONLAB
FlintshirePen-y-ffordd3,405Alyn and DeesideCONLAB
FlintshireQueensferry and Sealand3,498Alyn and DeesideLABLAB
FlintshireSaltney Ferry3,702Alyn and DeesideLABLAB
FlintshireShotton East and Shotton Higher3,089Alyn and DeesideLABLAB
FlintshireShotton West1,548Alyn and DeesideLABLAB
FlintshireTreuddyn1,320Alyn and DeesideLABLAB
 Total75,402 LABLAB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Alyn and Deeside if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


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