Alyn and Deeside: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Alyn and Deeside: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Unknown (changed seat)  (CON)
County/Area:Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate:73,870
Turnout:68.6%
Implied Majority 2019:623

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
LAB21,99643.4%
CON18,40436.3%
Reform3,2566.4%
LIB2,2124.4%
Green2,1104.2%
Plaid1,7713.5%
OTH9041.8%
LAB Majority3,5927.1%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Chance of winning
LAB
67%
CON
33%
Reform
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
Plaid
0%
OTH
0%

Alyn and Deeside : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Alyn and Deeside constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position2° Left8° Left
National Position7° Nat
Social Position2° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %57%53%52%
British Identity34%26%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born95%94%87%
Good Education35%37%39%
Good Job45%46%51%
High SEC46%46%51%
Average Age48.949.548.3
ABC1 Class46%48%54%
Average House Price£193,924£194,381£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Alyn and Deeside: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Alyn and Deeside

The new seat of Alyn and Deeside is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Alyn and DeesideActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
FlintshireAston2,498Alyn and DeesideCONLAB6627326311969380291,712
FlintshireBuckley Bistre East2,642Alyn and DeesideCONCON7776537714375520321,809
FlintshireBuckley Bistre West3,169Alyn and DeesideLABLAB6091,021174135108770462,170
FlintshireBuckley Mountain2,545Alyn and DeesideCONCON7746166812571600301,744
FlintshireBuckley Pentrobin4,164Alyn and DeesideCONCON1,2789671242131191010512,853
FlintshireCaergwrle1,220Alyn and DeesideLABLAB24342630533335014834
FlintshireConnah's Quay Central2,204Alyn and DeesideLABLAB4028404510058390251,509
FlintshireConnah's Quay Golftyn3,673Alyn and DeesideLABLAB7231,31986162100820432,515
FlintshireConnah's Quay South4,476Alyn and DeesideLABLAB9971,4971011941211050523,067
FlintshireConnah's Quay Wepre1,640Alyn and DeesideLABLAB363540407945370191,123
FlintshireEwloe4,309Alyn and DeesideCONCON1,3161,101107189118710512,953
FlintshireHawarden1,616Alyn and DeesideCONCON614305446545150191,107
FlintshireLlanfynydd1,477Alyn and DeesideCONCON445381355940350171,012
FlintshireMancot2,506Alyn and DeesideLABLAB5798115911368560291,715
FlintshireQueensferry1,243Alyn and DeesideLABLAB25844127543324014851
FlintshireSaltney Mold Junction1,096Alyn and DeesideLABLAB20540727473022013751
FlintshireSaltney Stonebridge2,661Alyn and DeesideLABLAB56385866120731110311,822
FlintshireSealand2,018Alyn and DeesideLABLAB397748428854310231,383
FlintshireShotton East1,214Alyn and DeesideLABLAB23743031563330014831
FlintshireShotton Higher1,662Alyn and DeesideLABLAB294637317743370191,138
FlintshireShotton West1,458Alyn and DeesideLABLAB28950944654232018999
FlintshireTreuddyn1,341Alyn and DeesideLABLAB30544226583537015918
FlintshireBroughton North East1,716Alyn and DeesideLABLAB387582367746300201,178
FlintshireHigher Kinnerton1,367Alyn and DeesideCONCON45729041683925017937
FlintshireHope2,034Alyn and DeesideCONCON5355054995551310241,394
FlintshirePenyffordd3,529Alyn and DeesideCONLAB9051,0628715397730412,418
FlintshireBroughton South3,311Alyn and DeesideLABLAB693969214150120700512,267
WrexhamBrymbo3,021Clwyd SouthCONCON876847427874840322,033
WrexhamMinera1,870Clwyd SouthCONCON565467305947720201,260
FlintshireArgoed2,161DelynCONLAB5535701459180450341,518
FlintshireNew Brighton2,407DelynCONCON65057117810193600401,693
FlintshireLeeswood1,622DelynCONCON454452437146540201,140
 Total73,870 CONLAB18,40521,9962,2123,2572,1101,771090350,654

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Alyn and Deeside if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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