Alyn and Deeside: Seat Details

Alyn and Deeside: Overview

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:Mark Tami  (LAB)
County/Area:Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate:62,789
Turnout:68.5%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB18,27142.5%44.4%
CON18,05842.0%35.6%
Reform2,6786.2%6.6%
LIB2,5485.9%4.1%
Plaid1,4533.4%3.4%
Green00.0%4.2%
OTH00.0%1.8%
LAB Majority2130.5%8.9%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
LAB
72%
CON
28%
Reform
0%
LIB
0%
Plaid
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Alyn and Deeside : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Alyn and Deeside constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position4° Left8° Left
National Position7° Nat
Social Position2° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %58%53%52%
British Identity34%26%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born95%94%87%
Good Education34%37%39%
Good Job44%46%51%
High SEC45%46%51%
Average Age48.949.548.3
ABC1 Class46%48%54%
Average House Price£191,050£194,381£309,875

Alyn and Deeside ranks #230 for "Leave", #402 for "Right", #225 for "National" and #314 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Alyn and Deeside: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Alyn and Deeside

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Alyn and Deeside.

Alyn and DeesideActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
FlintshireAston2,498CONLAB6617326211969380301,711
FlintshireBroughton North East1,716LABLAB386582357746300201,176
FlintshireBroughton South3,311LABLAB692970211150122700522,267
FlintshireBuckley Bistre East2,642CONCON7776537614376520331,810
FlintshireBuckley Bistre West3,169LABLAB6081,022172135110770472,171
FlintshireBuckley Mountain2,545CONCON7736166712572600311,744
FlintshireBuckley Pentrobin4,164CONCON1,2779681222131201010522,853
FlintshireCaergwrle1,220LABLAB24242729533435014834
FlintshireConnah's Quay Central2,204LABLAB4018404510059390251,509
FlintshireConnah's Quay Golftyn3,673LABLAB7221,32085162101820432,515
FlintshireConnah's Quay South4,476LABLAB9961,497991941221050523,065
FlintshireConnah's Quay Wepre1,640LABLAB363540407945370191,123
FlintshireEwloe4,309CONCON1,3151,101105189119710512,951
FlintshireHawarden1,616CONCON614305436546150201,108
FlintshireHigher Kinnerton1,367CONCON45729040684025017937
FlintshireHope2,034CONCON5345054895561310241,393
FlintshireLlanfynydd1,477CONCON445381345941350171,012
FlintshireMancot2,506LABLAB5798125811369560301,717
FlintshirePenyffordd3,529CONLAB9051,0628615398730422,419
FlintshireQueensferry1,243LABLAB25744227543424014852
FlintshireSaltney Mold Junction1,096LABLAB20540727473022013751
FlintshireSaltney Stonebridge2,661LABLAB56385865120741110321,823
FlintshireSealand2,018LABLAB396748428854310231,382
FlintshireShotton East1,214LABLAB23643130563430015832
FlintshireShotton Higher1,662LABLAB294637317744370191,139
FlintshireShotton West1,458LABLAB28951043654232018999
FlintshireTreuddyn1,341LABLAB30544326583637015920
 Total62,789LABLAB15,29219,0991,7482,8571,7931,456076843,013

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2021.


© 2021 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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