Antrim North: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Antrim North: Overview

Prediction: DUP

Implied MP at 2019:Ian Paisley  (DUP)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:71,240
Implied Turnout 2019:57.1%
Predicted Turnout:57.1%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
DUP19,17647.1%47.1%
UUP7,41218.2%18.2%
Alliance5,80214.3%14.3%
SF5,17612.7%12.7%
SDLP2,8777.1%7.1%
OTH2420.6%0.6%
Green70.0%0.0%
DUP Majority11,76428.9%28.9%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
DUP
97%
UUP
2%
Alliance
0%
SF
0%
SDLP
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Antrim North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Antrim North constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %62%44%52%
British Identity44%32%52%
Average Age50.649.349.5
Good Education43%48%49%
Employed56%56%58%
Homeowner70%69%63%
Car owner89%87%77%
Married49%46%45%
Ethnic White98%97%83%
Christian83%81%50%
ABC1 Class40%46%55%
Average House Price£142,483£148,218£309,210
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Antrim North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Antrim North

The new seat of Antrim North is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Antrim NorthActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
Causeway Coast and GlensBallycastle2,406Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney East2,092Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney North2,509Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney South2,264Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensClogh Mills2,677Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensDervock2,449Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensDunloy2,576Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensGiant's Causeway2,469Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensKinbane2,715Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensLoughguile and Stranocum2,636Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensRasharkin2,649Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensRoute2,393Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin845Antrim EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin1,812Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimAcademy2,070Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimAhoghill2,636Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimArdeevin2,443Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimBallee and Harryville2,263Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimBallykeel2,107Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimBraidwater2,077Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimBroughshane2,787Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimCastle Demesne1,837Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimCullybackey2,043Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimFair Green1,973Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimGalgorm2,444Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimGrange2,723Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimKells2,451Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimKirkinriola2,223Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimMaine2,263Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimPark2,004Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimPortglenone2,298Antrim NorthDUPDUP
 Total71,134 DUPDUP

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Antrim North if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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