Antrim North: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Antrim North: Overview

Prediction: DUP

Implied MP at 2019:Ian Paisley  (DUP)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:71,240
Turnout:57.1%
Implied Majority 2019:11,764

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
DUP19,17647.1%
UUP7,41218.2%
Alliance5,80214.3%
SF5,17612.7%
SDLP2,8777.1%
OTH2420.6%
Green70.0%
LIB Majority11,76428.9%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
DUP
100%
UUP
0%
Alliance
0%
SF
0%
SDLP
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Antrim North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Antrim North constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %62%44%52%
British Identity53%40%29%
Good Health46%48%48%
UK Born95%93%87%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job42%47%51%
High SEC55%57%51%
Average Age48.547.248.3
ABC1 Class39%46%53%
Average House Price£142,483£148,749£305,492
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Antrim North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Antrim North

The new seat of Antrim North is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Antrim NorthActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin843Antrim EastDUPDUP335019188798018485
Causeway Coast and GlensBallycastle2,342Antrim NorthDUPDUP1322684381100382071,337
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney East2,089Antrim NorthDUPDUP273325761910114061,192
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney North2,448Antrim NorthDUPDUP342366632180133071,399
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney South2,302Antrim NorthDUPDUP305356471780142071,314
Causeway Coast and GlensClogh Mills2,591Antrim NorthDUPDUP298406301820323071,480
Causeway Coast and GlensDervock2,412Antrim NorthDUPDUP38171744123052071,378
Causeway Coast and GlensDunloy2,505Antrim NorthDUPDUP260435241330462081,430
Causeway Coast and GlensGiant's Causeway2,415Antrim NorthDUPDUP38558735142052071,379
Causeway Coast and GlensKinbane2,668Antrim NorthDUPDUP2551775151310438081,524
Causeway Coast and GlensLoughguile and Stranocum2,542Antrim NorthDUPDUP2371864861240411071,451
Causeway Coast and GlensRasharkin2,654Antrim NorthDUPDUP305416381460378081,516
Causeway Coast and GlensRoute2,342Antrim NorthDUPDUP332346382170110061,337
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin1,763Antrim NorthDUPDUP121196325820278051,007
Mid and East AntrimAcademy2,086Antrim NorthDUPDUP176118607235049071,192
Mid and East AntrimAhoghill2,578Antrim NorthDUPDUP32845782243066091,473
Mid and East AntrimArdeevin2,519Antrim NorthDUPDUP166187707313059081,440
Mid and East AntrimBallee and Harryville2,255Antrim NorthDUPDUP23241740199069081,289
Mid and East AntrimBallykeel2,103Antrim NorthDUPDUP12243763205059081,200
Mid and East AntrimBraidwater2,295Antrim NorthDUPDUP1033114901610238081,311
Mid and East AntrimBroughshane2,728Antrim NorthDUPDUP35344817274061081,557
Mid and East AntrimCastle Demesne2,214Antrim NorthDUPDUP116111721239070091,266
Mid and East AntrimCullybackey2,015Antrim NorthDUPDUP25236635166056071,152
Mid and East AntrimFair Green2,301Antrim NorthDUPDUP1112515252260192091,314
Mid and East AntrimGalgorm2,416Antrim NorthDUPDUP31939704258053071,380
Mid and East AntrimGrange2,630Antrim NorthDUPDUP244476522490301091,502
Mid and East AntrimKells2,417Antrim NorthDUPDUP31740735226055081,381
Mid and East AntrimKirkinriola2,247Antrim NorthDUPDUP29337682201063071,283
Mid and East AntrimMaine2,192Antrim NorthDUPDUP275386711610101071,253
Mid and East AntrimPark2,051Antrim NorthDUPDUP125180606199053071,170
Mid and East AntrimPortglenone2,277Antrim NorthDUPDUP221425891820258081,300
 Total71,240 DUPDUP7,4122,87719,1765,80275,176024240,692

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Antrim North if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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