Antrim North: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Antrim North: Overview

Prediction: DUP

Implied MP at 2019:Ian Paisley  (DUP)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:71,240
Implied Turnout 2019:57.1%
Predicted Turnout:57.1%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
DUP19,05246.8%29.0%
UUP7,41718.2%22.1%
Alliance6,00214.7%16.0%
SF5,24312.9%17.0%
SDLP2,7416.7%7.7%
OTH2390.6%8.1%
Green50.0%0.0%
DUP Majority11,63528.6%6.9%
LIB Maj

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
DUP
57%
UUP
23%
Alliance
9%
SF
10%
SDLP
1%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Antrim North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Antrim North constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2024MINSFLAB
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %62%44%52%
British Identity44%32%52%
Average Age50.649.349.5
Good Education43%48%49%
Employed56%56%58%
Homeowner70%69%63%
Car owner89%87%77%
Married49%46%45%
Ethnic White98%97%83%
Christian83%81%50%
ABC1 Class45%51%55%
Average House Price£142,483£148,402£308,942

Antrim North ranks #113 for "Leave", out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Antrim North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Antrim North

The new seat of Antrim North is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow. Ward winners are modelled on the 'first past the post' system, and do not necessarily reflect a majority vote in each ward. For example, a party may be projected as the 'winner' of a ward with 30% support because the other parties only got 20%-25% each.

New seat: Antrim NorthActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
Causeway Coast and GlensBallycastle2,410Antrim NorthSFSF
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney East2,095Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney North2,513Antrim NorthDUPAlliance
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney South2,267Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensClogh Mills2,681Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensDervock2,453Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensDunloy2,580Antrim NorthSFSF
Causeway Coast and GlensGiant's Causeway2,473Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensKinbane2,719Antrim NorthDUPSF
Causeway Coast and GlensLoughguile and Stranocum2,640Antrim NorthDUPSF
Causeway Coast and GlensRasharkin2,653Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensRoute2,397Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin800Antrim EastSFSF
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin1,861Antrim NorthSFSF
Mid and East AntrimAcademy2,073Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimAhoghill2,640Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimArdeevin2,447Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimBallee and Harryville2,266Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimBallykeel2,110Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimBraidwater2,080Antrim NorthDUPSF
Mid and East AntrimBroughshane2,791Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimCastle Demesne1,840Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimCullybackey2,046Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimFair Green1,976Antrim NorthDUPSF
Mid and East AntrimGalgorm2,448Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimGrange2,727Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimKells2,455Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimKirkinriola2,226Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimMaine2,266Antrim NorthDUPDUP
Mid and East AntrimPark2,007Antrim NorthDUPAlliance
Mid and East AntrimPortglenone2,301Antrim NorthDUPDUP
 Total71,241 DUPDUP

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Antrim North if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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