Antrim South: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Antrim South: Overview

Prediction: DUP

Implied MP at 2019:Paul Girvan  (DUP)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:71,665
Implied Turnout 2019:60.0%
Predicted Turnout:60.0%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
DUP15,30635.6%35.6%
UUP12,26228.5%28.5%
Alliance8,23619.2%19.2%
SF4,92011.4%11.4%
SDLP2,2365.2%5.2%
OTH190.0%0.0%
Green60.0%0.0%
MIN30.0%0.0%
DUP Majority3,0447.1%7.1%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
DUP
67%
UUP
26%
Alliance
6%
SF
1%
SDLP
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%
MIN
0%

Antrim South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Antrim South constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015UUPDUPCON
EU Leave %51%44%52%
British Identity41%32%52%
Average Age49.249.349.5
Good Education49%48%49%
Employed60%56%58%
Homeowner77%69%63%
Car owner91%87%77%
Married50%46%45%
Ethnic White97%97%83%
Christian77%81%50%
ABC1 Class50%46%55%
Average House Price£148,318£148,218£309,210
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Antrim South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Antrim South

The new seat of Antrim South is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Antrim SouthActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAldergrove2,706Antrim SouthDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAntrim Centre2,703Antrim SouthDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare East2,689Antrim SouthUUPUUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare West2,839Antrim SouthUUPUUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff791Antrim EastDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff1,557Antrim SouthDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallynure2,646Antrim SouthUUPUUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyrobert2,734Antrim SouthUUPUUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill436Belfast NorthDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill2,170Antrim SouthDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney219Belfast NorthDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,865Antrim SouthDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyClady2,707Antrim SouthDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCranfield2,287Antrim SouthDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCrumlin2,614Antrim SouthSFSF
Antrim and NewtownabbeyDoagh2,486Antrim SouthUUPUUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview56Belfast NorthDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview2,137Antrim SouthDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFountain Hill2,184Antrim SouthAllianceAlliance
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGreystone2,072Antrim SouthDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMallusk3,667Antrim SouthUUPUUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMossley2,618Antrim SouthDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyParkgate2,502Antrim SouthDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRandalstown2,440Antrim SouthDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyShilvodan2,616Antrim SouthDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeySpringfarm2,985Antrim SouthAllianceAlliance
Antrim and NewtownabbeySteeple2,206Antrim SouthDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyStiles2,498Antrim SouthAllianceAlliance
Antrim and NewtownabbeyTemplepatrick2,562Antrim SouthDUPDUP
Antrim and NewtownabbeyToome2,679Antrim SouthSFSF
Lisburn and CastlereaghGlenavy2,735Antrim SouthDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford80Belfast WestDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford373Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford1,811Antrim SouthDUPDUP
 Total71,670 DUPDUP

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Antrim South if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (19-Feb-2024 16:41, Py3L, sc1074)