Antrim South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Antrim South: Overview

 Prediction: DUP hold 

MP at 2019: Paul Girvan  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 71,711
Turnout: 59.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
DUP15,14935.3%35.3%
UUP12,46029.0%29.0%
Alliance8,19019.1%19.1%
SF4,88711.4%11.4%
SDLP2,2885.3%5.3%
DUP Majority2,6896.3%Pred Maj 6.3%
Chance of
winning
DUP
66%
UUP
27%
Alliance
6%
SF
1%
SDLP
0%

Antrim South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Antrim South constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015UUPDUPCON
EU Leave %51%44%52%
British Identity50%40%29%
Good Health49%48%48%
UK Born95%93%87%
Good Education37%36%39%
Good Job50%47%51%
High SEC62%57%51%
Average Age47.047.248.3
ABC1 Class50%46%53%

Antrim South ranks #399 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Antrim South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Antrim South

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Antrim South.

Antrim SouthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAldergrove2,656DUPDUP4241255222930228001,592
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAntrim Centre2,693DUPDUP4151194864230170001,613
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare East2,681UUPUUP66321598258066001,606
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare West2,787UUPUUP71721654213065001,670
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff1,581DUPDUP2421043523003000947
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry881DUPDUP1323520210405600529
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallynure2,621UUPUUP69918628170055001,570
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyrobert2,655UUPUUP70619637172058001,592
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill2,176DUPDUP328385812530105001,305
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,823DUPDUP28737475197096001,092
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill216DUPDUP29164270800129
Antrim and NewtownabbeyClady2,628DUPDUP4791214812090284001,574
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCranfield2,325DUPDUP3371034832080263001,394
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCrumlin2,564SFSF3731523871640460001,536
Antrim and NewtownabbeyDoagh2,466UUPUUP64218510252056001,478
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview2,150DUPDUP30814543383042001,290
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFountain Hill2,225AllianceAlliance368103404415043001,333
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGreystone2,094DUPDUP31750464351073001,255
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown813DUPDUP1074016378010000488
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown161DUPDUP2513631030096
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMallusk3,684UUPUUP6211826014360369002,209
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMossley2,604DUPDUP38916711394050001,560
Antrim and NewtownabbeyParkgate2,478DUPDUP43344643297067001,484
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRandalstown2,525DUPDUP3251264772150370001,513
Antrim and NewtownabbeyShilvodan2,573DUPDUP3961135482700215001,542
Antrim and NewtownabbeySpringfarm3,226AllianceAlliance4901675465540176001,933
Antrim and NewtownabbeySteeple2,327DUPDUP36348526402054001,393
Antrim and NewtownabbeyStiles2,510AllianceAlliance3331074364460182001,504
Antrim and NewtownabbeyTemplepatrick2,532DUPDUP48580524342087001,518
Antrim and NewtownabbeyToome2,638SFSF3601564581370470001,581
Lisburn and CastlereaghGlenavy2,650DUPDUP3771464871430436001,589
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford1,765DUPDUP288574391210153001,058
 Total71,708DUPDUP12,4582,28815,1498,18804,8900042,973

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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