Antrim South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Antrim South: Overview

 Prediction: DUP hold 

MP at 2019: Paul Girvan  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 71,711
Turnout: 59.9%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
DUP15,14935.3%35.3%
UUP12,46029.0%29.0%
Alliance8,19019.1%19.1%
SF4,88711.4%11.4%
SDLP2,2885.3%5.3%
DUP Majority2,6896.3%Pred Maj 6.3%
Chance of
winning
DUP
64%
UUP
27%
Alliance
8%
SF
1%
SDLP
0%

Antrim South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Antrim South constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015UUPDUPCON
EU Leave %51%44%52%
British Identity50%40%29%
Good Health49%48%48%
UK Born95%93%87%
Good Education37%36%39%
Good Job50%47%51%
High SEC62%57%51%
Average Age47.047.248.3
ABC1 Class50%46%53%

Antrim South ranks #396 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Antrim South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Antrim South: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Antrim South

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Antrim South at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Antrim South. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Antrim SouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
OTH
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAldergrove20142972023951590189146
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAntrim Centre2014231113285115014596
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare East2014326045313600409
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare West201430503959800300
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff2014262034212400244
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry201424681326191012917
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallynure2014336039210600226
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyrobert201433203979500250
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill201430031461185011080
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney201426933376146010342
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill201413922479149052151
Antrim and NewtownabbeyClady201430916628357020124
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCranfield20142162123619902640
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCrumlin201420831115137052732
Antrim and NewtownabbeyDoagh2014335037011800233
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview2014254030514300237
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFountain Hill201422710225913904454
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGreystone20141904129996067141
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown2014205120261156024618
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown2014339032423400162
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMallusk2014376311350171024741
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMossley2014295038814700292
Antrim and NewtownabbeyParkgate2014307924901320580
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRandalstown20141832803259004140
Antrim and NewtownabbeyShilvodan201424821939213102160
Antrim and NewtownabbeySpringfarm2014292203350203016599
Antrim and NewtownabbeySteeple201423542360116054157
Antrim and NewtownabbeyStiles20141821072791360158158
Antrim and NewtownabbeyTemplepatrick201433410635312204933
Antrim and NewtownabbeyToome20141573232113805280
Lisburn and CastlereaghGlenavy201414127633840041923
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford20141489138841015564

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Antrim SouthEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAldergrove3,1345411286224030183001,877
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAntrim Centre2,672481985253350163001,602
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare East3,021557637703190101001,810
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare West2,50749252638242079001,503
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff1,4972853136616804700897
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry1,0201753120914405200611
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallynure2,42150549589237072001,452
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyrobert2,44950850607230073001,468
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill2,06434645514251080001,236
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,82732442436216076001,094
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill26426587310800157
Antrim and NewtownabbeyClady2,352493964042430174001,410
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCranfield2,353352984732700218001,411
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCrumlin2,8603901213352720597001,715
Antrim and NewtownabbeyDoagh2,41151249562250072001,445
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview2,23043345509276072001,335
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFountain Hill2,23743177457305071001,341
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGreystone2,26538058578257084001,357
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown7751242912810607700464
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown17938435240600107
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMallusk3,3806691415484370231002,026
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMossley2,66250054649306086001,595
Antrim and NewtownabbeyParkgate2,20437562585238061001,321
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRandalstown2,6403291114432910407001,581
Antrim and NewtownabbeyShilvodan2,4643891005133040171001,477
Antrim and NewtownabbeySpringfarm3,5606321436585060194002,133
Antrim and NewtownabbeySteeple2,61245063675294083001,565
Antrim and NewtownabbeyStiles2,7684341025553760191001,658
Antrim and NewtownabbeyTemplepatrick2,25147670484255065001,350
Antrim and NewtownabbeyToome2,5673161103132370563001,539
Lisburn and CastlereaghGlenavy2,5783161094662240431001,546
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford1,48718252416141010000891
 Total71,71112,4612,28815,1498,18804,8880042,974

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Antrim South

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Antrim South.

Antrim SouthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAldergrove3,1345411286224030183001,877
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAntrim Centre2,672481985253350163001,602
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare East3,021557637703190101001,810
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare West2,50749252638242079001,503
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff1,4972853136616804700897
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry1,0201753120914405200611
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallynure2,42150549589237072001,452
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyrobert2,44950850607230073001,468
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill2,06434645514251080001,236
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,82732442436216076001,094
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill26426587310800157
Antrim and NewtownabbeyClady2,352493964042430174001,410
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCranfield2,353352984732700218001,411
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCrumlin2,8603901213352720597001,715
Antrim and NewtownabbeyDoagh2,41151249562250072001,445
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview2,23043345509276072001,335
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFountain Hill2,23743177457305071001,341
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGreystone2,26538058578257084001,357
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown7751242912810607700464
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown17938435240600107
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMallusk3,3806691415484370231002,026
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMossley2,66250054649306086001,595
Antrim and NewtownabbeyParkgate2,20437562585238061001,321
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRandalstown2,6403291114432910407001,581
Antrim and NewtownabbeyShilvodan2,4643891005133040171001,477
Antrim and NewtownabbeySpringfarm3,5606321436585060194002,133
Antrim and NewtownabbeySteeple2,61245063675294083001,565
Antrim and NewtownabbeyStiles2,7684341025553760191001,658
Antrim and NewtownabbeyTemplepatrick2,25147670484255065001,350
Antrim and NewtownabbeyToome2,5673161103132370563001,539
Lisburn and CastlereaghGlenavy2,5783161094662240431001,546
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford1,48718252416141010000891
 Total71,71112,4612,28815,1498,18804,8880042,974

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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