Antrim South: Seat Details

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Antrim South, or click here to find another new seat.

Antrim South: Overview

Prediction: DUP hold

MP at 2019:Paul Girvan  (DUP)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:71,711
Turnout:59.9%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
DUP15,14935.3%35.3%
UUP12,46029.0%29.0%
Alliance8,19019.1%19.1%
SF4,88711.4%11.4%
SDLP2,2885.3%5.3%
DUP Majority2,6896.3%6.3%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
DUP
65%
UUP
28%
Alliance
6%
SF
1%
SDLP
0%

Antrim South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Antrim South constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015UUPDUPCON
EU Leave %51%44%52%
British Identity40%32%52%
Average Age49.149.349.5
Good Education49%48%49%
Employed61%56%58%
Homeowner78%69%63%
Car owner91%87%77%
Married50%46%45%
Ethnic White97%97%83%
Christian77%81%50%
ABC1 Class51%46%55%
Average House Price£148,388£148,218£309,210

Antrim South ranks #399 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Antrim South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Antrim South

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Antrim South.

Antrim SouthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAldergrove2,706DUPDUP4181335223020246001,621
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAntrim Centre2,703DUPDUP4171204894290164001,619
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare East2,689UUPUUP67515607261054001,612
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare West2,839UUPUUP74215674216054001,701
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff1,557DUPDUP242743122902400933
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry877DUPDUP1333120310505300525
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallynure2,646UUPUUP71613642169045001,585
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyrobert2,734UUPUUP73814664174049001,639
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill2,171DUPDUP34027590256089001,302
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,866DUPDUP30527494204088001,118
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill185DUPDUP26155240600112
Antrim and NewtownabbeyClady2,707DUPDUP4811294872150311001,623
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCranfield2,287DUPDUP3221024682050274001,371
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCrumlin2,614SFSF3531883741650486001,566
Antrim and NewtownabbeyDoagh2,486UUPUUP65513520256046001,490
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview2,137DUPDUP31010543383034001,280
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFountain Hill2,184AllianceAlliance361105397411035001,309
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGreystone2,072DUPDUP32735470351059001,242
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown792DUPDUP984215576010300474
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown136DUPDUP2113127020082
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMallusk3,667UUPUUP5911965794400391002,197
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMossley2,618DUPDUP39712719400041001,569
Antrim and NewtownabbeyParkgate2,502DUPDUP45032659304055001,500
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRandalstown2,440DUPDUP2971344492080374001,462
Antrim and NewtownabbeyShilvodan2,616DUPDUP3951145512770231001,568
Antrim and NewtownabbeySpringfarm2,985AllianceAlliance4491735035170147001,789
Antrim and NewtownabbeySteeple2,206DUPDUP35532508385042001,322
Antrim and NewtownabbeyStiles2,498AllianceAlliance3301044334470183001,497
Antrim and NewtownabbeyTemplepatrick2,562DUPDUP51157546350072001,536
Antrim and NewtownabbeyToome2,679SFSF3381914451360495001,605
Lisburn and CastlereaghGlenavy2,735DUPDUP3661754861440468001,639
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford1,812DUPDUP300424541220167001,085
 Total71,708DUPDUP12,4592,29015,1488,18804,8880042,973

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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