Ayrshire Central: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Ayrshire Central: Overview

Prediction: SNP

Implied MP at 2019:Philippa Whitford  (SNP)
County/Area:Ayrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Electorate:69,742
Turnout:66.7%
Implied Majority 2019:5,304

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
SNP22,80249.0%
CON12,69127.3%
LAB7,32315.7%
LIB1,4463.1%
OTH1,2152.6%
Green8771.9%
Reform1810.4%
NAT Majority10,11121.7%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Chance of winning
SNP
93%
CON
7%
LAB
1%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%
Reform
0%

Ayrshire Central : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Ayrshire Central constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position24° Left23° Left
National Position12° Glo15° Glo
Social Position10° Lib13° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %40%38%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health50%52%48%
UK Born97%93%87%
Good Education33%36%39%
Good Job46%49%51%
High SEC53%55%51%
Average Age50.748.648.3
ABC1 Class46%50%54%
Average House Price£138,429£174,688£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Ayrshire Central: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Ayrshire Central

The new seat of Ayrshire Central is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Ayrshire CentralActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North AyrshireIrvine West11,849Ayrshire CentralSNPSNP1,3701,840234301484,08002057,907
North AyrshireIrvine East9,932Ayrshire CentralSNPSNP1,4011,201216261263,48301756,628
North AyrshireKilwinning2,167Ayrshire CentralSNPSNP265328476287340381,446
North AyrshireIrvine South8,754Ayrshire CentralSNPSNP9601,306173231093,12001515,842
South AyrshireTroon12,543Ayrshire CentralCONSNP3,286724265331583,68502198,370
South AyrshirePrestwick12,306Ayrshire CentralCONSNP2,966754286331583,79502198,211
South AyrshireAyr North1,762Ayrshire CentralSNPSNP203231375226470311,176
South AyrshireKyle10,323Ayrshire CentralSNPSNP2,216934186261273,22501756,889
South AyrshireMaybole, North Carrick and Coylton106Ayrshire CentralSNPSNP256201340270
 Total69,742 SNPSNP12,6927,3241,44618287722,80301,21546,539

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Ayrshire Central if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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