Belfast West: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Belfast West: Overview

Prediction: SF

Implied MP at 2019:Paul Maskey  (SF)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:71,270
Implied Turnout 2019:59.7%
Predicted Turnout:59.7%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
SF21,60050.7%50.8%
DUP7,44517.5%17.5%
MIN5,82613.7%13.7%
SDLP3,0447.2%7.2%
Alliance2,6576.2%6.3%
OTH1,6033.8%3.5%
UUP3960.9%1.0%
SF Majority14,15533.3%33.2%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
SF
98%
DUP
2%
MIN
0%
SDLP
0%
Alliance
0%
OTH
0%
UUP
0%

Belfast West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Belfast West constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SFDUPCON
EU Leave %29%44%52%
British Identity17%32%52%
Average Age47.849.349.5
Good Education39%48%49%
Employed49%56%58%
Homeowner53%69%63%
Car owner70%87%77%
Married31%46%45%
Ethnic White96%97%83%
Christian88%81%50%
ABC1 Class36%46%55%
Average House Price£120,928£148,218£309,210
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Belfast West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Belfast West

The new seat of Belfast West is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Belfast WestActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
BelfastAndersonstown3,687Belfast WestSFSF
BelfastBallygomartin4,093Belfast WestDUPDUP
BelfastBallymurphy3,584Belfast WestSFSF
BelfastBeechmount3,555Belfast WestSFSF
BelfastClonard3,910Belfast WestSFSF
BelfastCollin Glen4,065Belfast WestSFSF
BelfastDunmurry2,880Belfast WestSFSF
BelfastDunmurry884Lagan ValleySFSF
BelfastFalls3Belfast SouthSFSF
BelfastFalls3,330Belfast WestSFSF
BelfastFalls Park3,665Belfast WestSFSF
BelfastLadybrook3,654Belfast WestSFSF
BelfastLagmore4,975Belfast WestSFSF
BelfastPoleglass3,930Belfast WestSFSF
BelfastShankill1,912Belfast NorthDUPDUP
BelfastShankill2,426Belfast WestDUPDUP
BelfastShaw's Road3,959Belfast WestSFSF
BelfastStewartstown3,611Belfast WestSFSF
BelfastTurf Lodge3,492Belfast WestSFSF
BelfastTwinbrook3,429Belfast WestSFSF
BelfastWoodvale3,015Belfast NorthDUPDUP
BelfastWoodvale429Belfast WestDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,835Lagan ValleyAllianceAlliance
 Total71,323 SFSF

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Belfast West if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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