Belfast West: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Belfast West: Overview

Prediction: SF

Implied MP at 2019:Paul Maskey  (SF)
County/Area:Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:71,270
Turnout:59.7%
Implied Majority 2019:14,155

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
SF21,60050.7%
DUP7,44517.5%
MIN5,82613.7%
SDLP3,0447.2%
Alliance2,6576.2%
OTH1,6033.8%
UUP3960.9%
NAT Majority14,15533.3%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
SF
100%
DUP
0%
MIN
0%
SDLP
0%
Alliance
0%
OTH
0%
UUP
0%

Belfast West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Belfast West constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SFDUPCON
EU Leave %29%44%52%
British Identity22%40%29%
Good Health44%48%48%
UK Born96%93%87%
Good Education26%36%39%
Good Job43%47%51%
High SEC43%57%51%
Average Age46.047.248.3
ABC1 Class36%46%53%
Average House Price£120,928£148,749£305,492
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Belfast West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Belfast West

The new seat of Belfast West is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Belfast WestActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastShankill1,887Belfast NorthDUPDUP00834370410001,281
BelfastWoodvale3,007Belfast NorthDUPDUP001,295790668002,042
BelfastFalls3Belfast SouthSDLPSDLP011000002
BelfastAndersonstown3,683Belfast WestSFSF01511658801,390302802,176
BelfastBallygomartin4,118Belfast WestDUPDUP07392613507024721252,433
BelfastBallymurphy3,556Belfast WestSFSF0631567101,346368972,101
BelfastBeechmount3,565Belfast WestSFSF01051599101,343322852,105
BelfastClonard3,909Belfast WestSFSF01994428001,0334401162,310
BelfastCollin Glen4,035Belfast WestSFSF01211808101,529374992,384
BelfastDunmurry2,927Belfast WestSFSF02701942810812135361,728
BelfastFalls3,301Belfast WestSFSF01463886808523931041,951
BelfastFalls Park3,660Belfast WestSFSF01831629101,384272722,164
BelfastLadybrook3,671Belfast WestSFSF029316616501,219258682,169
BelfastLagmore5,019Belfast WestSFSF036822512701,7254111082,964
BelfastPoleglass3,930Belfast WestSFSF02201768001,3593861022,323
BelfastShankill2,431Belfast WestDUPDUP041525750396316831,436
BelfastShaw's Road3,937Belfast WestSFSF01351757901,499346912,325
BelfastStewartstown3,597Belfast WestSFSF02661618501,243293772,125
BelfastTurf Lodge3,471Belfast WestSFSF0591526901,309365962,050
BelfastTwinbrook3,438Belfast WestSFSF02161549201,169317842,032
BelfastWoodvale430Belfast WestDUPDUP0791170685615254
BelfastDunmurry887Lagan ValleyAllianceAlliance2837185190042050532
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,808Lagan ValleyAllianceAlliance3689053357601020151,684
 Total71,270 SFSF3963,0447,4452,657021,6005,8261,60342,571

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Belfast West if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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