Bexhill and Battle: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Bexhill and Battle: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Huw Merriman  (CON)
County/Area:East Sussex (South East)
Implied Turnout 2019:71.8%
Predicted Turnout:64.0%

CON Majority21,49942.6%6.2%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in South East.

Chance of winning

Bexhill and Battle : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Bexhill and Battle constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right11° Right
National Position15° Nat3° Nat
Social Position8° Con1° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %59%52%52%
Average Age57.050.449.5
Good Education46%53%49%
Car owner85%84%77%
Ethnic White96%86%83%
ABC1 Class57%62%56%
Gross Household Income£41,932£50,167£42,397
Average House Price£354,934£409,816£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Bexhill and Battle: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Bexhill and Battle

The new seat of Bexhill and Battle is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Bexhill and BattleActualPredicted
Old SeatGE19
RotherBexhill Central4,043Bexhill and BattleCONLAB
RotherBexhill Collington3,934Bexhill and BattleCONCON
RotherBexhill Kewhurst4,018Bexhill and BattleCONCON
RotherBexhill Old Town and Worsham3,169Bexhill and BattleCONCON
RotherBexhill Pebsham and St Michaels3,955Bexhill and BattleCONCON
RotherBexhill Sackville4,042Bexhill and BattleCONCON
RotherBexhill Sidley4,053Bexhill and BattleCONLAB
RotherBexhill St Marks3,740Bexhill and BattleCONCON
RotherBexhill St Stephens4,048Bexhill and BattleCONCON
RotherBrede and Udimore1,853Hastings and RyeCONCON
RotherBurwash and the Weald3,675Bexhill and BattleCONCON
RotherCatsfield and Crowhurst1,873Bexhill and BattleCONCON
RotherHurst Green and Ticehurst4,099Bexhill and BattleCONCON
RotherNorth Battle, Netherfield and Whatlington3,700Bexhill and BattleCONCON
RotherNorthern Rother4,010Bexhill and BattleCONCON
RotherRobertsbridge2,082Bexhill and BattleCONCON
RotherSedlescombe and Westfield1,267Bexhill and BattleCONCON
RotherSedlescombe and Westfield3,066Hastings and RyeCONCON
RotherSouth Battle and Telham1,729Bexhill and BattleCONCON
WealdenHerstmonceux and Pevensey Levels5,492Bexhill and BattleCONCON
WealdenPevensey Bay2,456Bexhill and BattleCONCON
 Total70,304 CONCON

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Bexhill and Battle if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.

© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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