Birmingham Selly Oak: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Birmingham Selly Oak: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Steve McCabe  (LAB)
County/Area:Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:81,511
Turnout:59.9%
Implied Majority 2019:11,956

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
LAB27,41056.1%
CON12,77326.1%
Green3,2706.7%
LIB2,6025.3%
OTH1,6843.4%
Reform1,0592.2%
MIN480.1%
LAB Majority14,63730.0%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Chance of winning
LAB
96%
CON
4%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%
MIN
0%

Birmingham Selly Oak : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Birmingham Selly Oak constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABCONCON
Party Winner 2017LABCONCON
Party Winner 2015LABCONCON
Economic Position3° Left3° Right
National Position9° Glo7° Nat
Social Position5° Lib6° Con
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %45%59%52%
British Identity32%29%29%
Good Health48%45%48%
UK Born86%89%87%
Good Education47%36%39%
Good Job54%48%51%
High SEC44%46%51%
Average Age44.048.648.3
ABC1 Class56%49%54%
Average House Price£237,861£235,222£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Birmingham Selly Oak: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Birmingham Selly Oak

The new seat of Birmingham Selly Oak is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Birmingham Selly OakActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BirminghamBillesley1,258Birmingham Hall GreenLABLAB18148434173804827829
BirminghamBillesley13,684Birmingham Selly OakLABLAB2,4334,625261162444002638,188
BirminghamBournbrook and Selly Park16,846Birmingham Selly OakLABLAB2,0215,9548471847050037110,082
BirminghamBournville and Cotteridge491Birmingham NorthfieldCONLAB111120177210011287
BirminghamBournville and Cotteridge14,505Birmingham Selly OakLABLAB2,5934,515488181603003008,680
BirminghamBrandwood and King's Heath6,578Birmingham Selly OakLABLAB6572,48525482319001393,936
BirminghamDruids Heath and Monyhull8,331Birmingham Selly OakLABLAB1,3352,740161157423001704,986
BirminghamHighter's Heath8,337Birmingham Selly OakCONLAB2,0112,265155126267001644,988
BirminghamStirchley12Birmingham Hall GreenLABLAB250000007
BirminghamStirchley7,630Birmingham Selly OakLABLAB7832,95526294313001584,565
BirminghamWeoley and Selly Oak3,839Birmingham Selly OakLABLAB6471,2631244813700792,298
 Total81,511 LABLAB12,77427,4112,6031,0583,2700481,68248,846

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Birmingham Selly Oak if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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