Bromsgrove: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Bromsgrove: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Sajid Javid  (CON)
County/Area:Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:75,078
Turnout:72.3%
Implied Majority 2019:23,111

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
CON31,63858.3%
LAB11,51321.2%
LIB5,69810.5%
Green3,4896.4%
OTH1,9363.6%
CON Majority20,12537.1%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Chance of winning
CON
99%
LAB
1%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Bromsgrove : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Bromsgrove constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position14° Right3° Right
National Position8° Nat7° Nat
Social Position5° Con6° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %55%59%52%
British Identity26%29%29%
Good Health49%45%48%
UK Born96%89%87%
Good Education42%36%39%
Good Job60%48%51%
High SEC62%46%51%
Average Age51.748.648.3
ABC1 Class63%49%54%
Average House Price£319,640£235,222£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Bromsgrove: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Bromsgrove

The new seat of Bromsgrove is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: BromsgroveActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BromsgroveAlvechurch South2,308BromsgroveCONCON1,13922315209700581,669
BromsgroveAlvechurch Village2,262BromsgroveCONCON1,029283162010300581,635
BromsgroveAston Fields2,553BromsgroveCONCON938585152010700631,845
BromsgroveAvoncroft2,599BromsgroveCONCON1,033395262011400751,879
BromsgroveBarnt Green and Hopwood2,439BromsgroveCONCON1,190234169010900621,764
BromsgroveBelbroughton and Romsley5,336BromsgroveCONCON2,7425532400199001233,857
BromsgroveBromsgrove Central2,379BromsgroveCONCON850279407011100731,720
BromsgroveCatshill North2,193BromsgroveCONCON81651211708800521,585
BromsgroveCatshill South2,211BromsgroveCONCON936313137015700551,598
BromsgroveCharford2,296BromsgroveCONCON71067812808800561,660
BromsgroveCofton2,434BromsgroveCONCON1,010268197021700651,757
BromsgroveDrakes Cross2,462BromsgroveCONCON1,189292138010300601,782
BromsgroveHagley East2,463BromsgroveCONCON1,209237163011000621,781
BromsgroveHagley West2,925BromsgroveCONCON1,453268192012700742,114
BromsgroveHill Top1,848BromsgroveCONCON62047511607800461,335
BromsgroveHollywood2,395BromsgroveCONCON1,21324912209000571,731
BromsgroveLickey Hills2,287BromsgroveCONCON965174339010600701,654
BromsgroveLowes Hill2,557BromsgroveCONCON885473293012100771,849
BromsgroveMarlbrook2,427BromsgroveCONCON1,100292122018300571,754
BromsgroveNorton2,504BromsgroveCONCON949251419011500771,811
BromsgrovePerryfields1,510BromsgroveCONCON6282996806100351,091
BromsgroveRock Hill2,395BromsgroveCONCON753643170010400621,732
BromsgroveRubery North2,416BromsgroveCONCON84161613209800581,745
BromsgroveRubery South2,499BromsgroveCONCON890560129016800591,806
BromsgroveSanders Park2,768BromsgroveCONCON1,030654144010800662,002
BromsgroveSidemoor2,692BromsgroveCONCON814643291012000791,947
BromsgroveSlideslow2,678BromsgroveCONCON1,175309257012000761,937
BromsgroveTardebigge2,411BromsgroveCONCON1,16727914709100591,743
BromsgroveWythall East2,495BromsgroveCONCON1,231246162010200631,804
BromsgroveWythall West2,336BromsgroveCONCON1,13623016909400601,689
 Total75,078 CONCON31,64111,5135,69603,489001,93754,276

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Bromsgrove if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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