Castle Point: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Castle Point: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Rebecca Harris  (CON)
County/Area:Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:71,217
Implied Turnout 2019:63.5%
Predicted Turnout:53.8%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON34,55876.4%41.0%
LAB7,63416.9%28.5%
LIB3,0326.7%4.6%
MIN300.1%0.0%
Reform00.0%21.0%
Green00.0%4.7%
OTH00.0%0.2%
CON Majority26,92459.5%12.5%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Chance of winning
CON
77%
LAB
19%
LIB
0%
MIN
0%
Reform
4%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Castle Point : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Castle Point constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position15° Right9° Right
National Position27° Nat7° Nat
Social Position14° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %73%56%52%
Average Age53.250.549.5
Good Education36%48%49%
Employed55%59%58%
Homeowner81%67%63%
Car owner86%84%77%
Married49%47%45%
Ethnic White95%86%83%
Christian51%50%50%
ABC1 Class56%58%56%
Gross Household Income£41,680£45,686£42,397
Deprivation56%50%52%
Average House Price£335,823£352,365£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Castle Point: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Castle Point

The new seat of Castle Point is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Castle PointActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
BasildonPitsea South East2,458Basildon South and East ThurrockCONLAB
Castle PointAppleton5,291Castle PointCONCON
Castle PointBoyce5,244Castle PointCONCON
Castle PointCanvey Island Central5,036Castle PointCONCON
Castle PointCanvey Island East4,777Castle PointCONCON
Castle PointCanvey Island North5,225Castle PointCONCON
Castle PointCanvey Island South5,053Castle PointCONCON
Castle PointCanvey Island West3,846Castle PointCONCON
Castle PointCanvey Island Winter Gardens4,825Castle PointCONCON
Castle PointCedar Hall4,942Castle PointCONCON
Castle PointSt George's4,526Castle PointCONCON
Castle PointSt James5,368Castle PointCONCON
Castle PointSt Mary's4,942Castle PointCONCON
Castle PointSt Peter's5,102Castle PointCONCON
Castle PointVictoria4,583Castle PointCONCON
 Total71,218 CONCON

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Castle Point if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


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