Dorking and Horley: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Dorking and Horley: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Paul Beresford  (CON)
County/Area:Surrey (South East)
Implied Turnout 2019:75.0%
Predicted Turnout:68.0%

CON Majority12,20423.2%0.0%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in South East.

Chance of winning

Dorking and Horley : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Dorking and Horley constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat South EastAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position16° Right11° Right
National Position4° Nat3° Nat
Social Position2° Con1° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %50%52%52%
Average Age52.850.449.5
Good Education56%53%49%
Car owner89%84%77%
Ethnic White92%86%83%
ABC1 Class69%62%56%
Gross Household Income£54,162£50,167£42,397
Average House Price£545,871£409,816£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Dorking and Horley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Dorking and Horley

The new seat of Dorking and Horley is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Dorking and HorleyActualPredicted
Old SeatGE19
Reigate and BansteadHorley Central and South7,164Surrey EastCONLAB
Reigate and BansteadHorley East and Salfords4,781Surrey EastCONCON
Reigate and BansteadHorley East and Salfords2,334ReigateCONCON
Reigate and BansteadHorley West and Sidlow6,656Surrey EastCONCON
Reigate and BansteadHorley West and Sidlow433ReigateCONCON
WaverleyEwhurst and Ellens Green1,582GuildfordCONCON
Mole ValleyBookham East and Eastwick Park4,777Mole ValleyCONLIB
Mole ValleyBookham West4,970Mole ValleyCONLIB
Mole ValleyBrockham, Betchworth, Buckland, Box Hill and Headley5,222Mole ValleyCONLIB
Mole ValleyCapel, Leigh, Newdigate and Charlwood5,186Mole ValleyCONCON
Mole ValleyDorking North5,545Mole ValleyLIBLIB
Mole ValleyDorking South5,721Mole ValleyLIBLIB
Mole ValleyFetcham5,492Mole ValleyCONCON
Mole ValleyHolmwoods and Beare Green4,935Mole ValleyCONLIB
Mole ValleyMickleham, Westcott and Okewood5,215Mole ValleyCONCON
 Total70,013 CONCON

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Dorking and Horley if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.

© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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