Down North: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Down North: Overview

Prediction: Alliance

Implied MP at 2019:Stephen Farry  (Alliance)
County/Area:Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:70,322
Turnout:60.7%
Implied Majority 2019:3,111

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
Alliance19,39845.4%
DUP16,28738.1%
UUP5,06211.9%
OTH1,9574.6%
Reform Majority3,1117.3%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
Alliance
100%
DUP
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%

Down North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Down North constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019AllianceDUPCON
Party Winner 2017MINDUPCON
Party Winner 2015MINDUPCON
EU Leave %47%44%52%
British Identity57%40%29%
Good Health47%48%48%
UK Born95%93%87%
Good Education43%36%39%
Good Job58%47%51%
High SEC69%57%51%
Average Age50.147.248.3
ABC1 Class60%46%53%
Average House Price£194,861£148,749£305,492
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Down North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Down North

The new seat of Down North is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Down NorthActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastGarnerville3,226Belfast EastAllianceAlliance13608941,03700002,067
BelfastGarnerville221Down NorthAllianceAlliance13052670002134
Ards and North DownBallycrochan2,531Down NorthDUPDUP2850600584000641,533
Ards and North DownBallygrainey3,643Down NorthAllianceAlliance25708478690002352,208
Ards and North DownBallyholme2,931Down NorthAllianceAlliance25906027510001631,775
Ards and North DownBallymagee3,038Down NorthDUPDUP3450712705000781,840
Ards and North DownBloomfield2,916Down NorthAllianceAlliance21306676980001891,767
Ards and North DownBroadway2,713Down NorthAllianceAlliance24305886440001681,643
Ards and North DownBryansburn2,913Down NorthAllianceAlliance1950563989000171,764
Ards and North DownCarrowdore882Down NorthDUPDUP3303181790005535
Ards and North DownCastle2,798Down NorthDUPDUP19106726570001751,695
Ards and North DownClandeboye2,915Down NorthAllianceAlliance1670736847000161,766
Ards and North DownCultra3,052Down NorthAllianceAlliance13905441,147000181,848
Ards and North DownDonaghadee2,923Down NorthDUPDUP30006706510001501,771
Ards and North DownGroomsport2,841Down NorthDUPDUP3190672656000741,721
Ards and North DownHarbour3,380Down NorthAllianceAlliance20406159930002362,048
Ards and North DownHelen's Bay2,974Down NorthAllianceAlliance15705651,062000181,802
Ards and North DownHolywood3,207Down NorthAllianceAlliance12505781,220000191,942
Ards and North DownKilcooley2,829Down NorthAllianceAlliance1530727818000161,714
Ards and North DownLoughries1,395Down NorthDUPDUP4305072870008845
Ards and North DownLoughview3,080Down NorthAllianceAlliance1080805936000171,866
Ards and North DownRathgael2,522Down NorthAllianceAlliance1530659702000141,528
Ards and North DownRathmore2,876Down NorthAllianceAlliance2500726750000161,742
Ards and North DownSilverbirch2,859Down NorthDUPDUP29506956380001041,732
Ards and North DownSilverstream2,531Down NorthAllianceAlliance1420589787000151,533
Ards and North DownWarren3,126Down NorthAllianceAlliance34606817220001441,893
 Total70,322 AllianceAlliance5,071016,28419,3960001,96142,712

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Down North if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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