Down North: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation
Down North: Overview
Prediction: Alliance
| Implied MP at 2019: | Stephen Farry (Alliance) |
| County/Area: | Down (Northern Ireland) |
| Electorate: | 70,322 |
| Turnout: | 60.7% |
| Implied Majority 2019: | 3,111 |
| Party | Predicted Votes | Predicted Share |
|---|---|---|
| Alliance | 19,398 | 45.4% |
| DUP | 16,287 | 38.1% |
| UUP | 5,062 | 11.9% |
| OTH | 1,957 | 4.6% |
| Reform Majority | 3,111 | 7.3% |
See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.
| Chance of winning | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Alliance |
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| DUP |
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| UUP |
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| OTH |
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Down North : Political and Demographic indicators
The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Down North constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.
The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.
| Indicator | Seat | Northern Ireland | All UK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Party Winner 2019 | Alliance | DUP | CON |
| Party Winner 2017 | MIN | DUP | CON |
| Party Winner 2015 | MIN | DUP | CON |
| EU Leave % | 47% | 44% | 52% |
| British Identity | 57% | 40% | 29% |
| Good Health | 47% | 48% | 48% |
| UK Born | 95% | 93% | 87% |
| Good Education | 43% | 36% | 39% |
| Good Job | 58% | 47% | 51% |
| High SEC | 69% | 57% | 51% |
| Average Age | 50.1 | 47.2 | 48.3 |
| ABC1 Class | 60% | 46% | 53% |
| Average House Price | £194,861 | £148,749 | £305,492 |
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above
The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.
| Topic | Cat 1 | Cat 2 | Cat 3 | Cat 4 | Cat 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU Leave % | Very Remain | Remain | Balanced | Leave | Very Leave |
| Census | Very Low | Low | Medium | High | Very High |
Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:
| Indicator | Census Question | Definition / Included Census Categories |
|---|---|---|
| Party Winner | – | Area party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus |
| EU Leave % | – | EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate |
| British Identity | National Identity (KS202) | Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British |
| Good Health | Health (KS301) | Those answering 'Very Good Health' |
| UK Born | Country of Birth (QS203) | Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other |
| Good Education | Highest level of Qualification (QS501) | Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent) |
| Good Job | Occupation (QS606) | Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers) |
| High SEC | NS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609) | National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed). |
| Average Age | Age (QS103) | Average age of adults (18 years and above) |
| ABC1 Class | Approximated Social Grade (QS611) | Approximated social grades A, B and C1 |
| Average House Price | – | Average residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance |
Down North: Map
Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors
New seat: Down North
The new seat of Down North is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.
| New seat: Down North | Actual | Predicted results | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Ward | Electorate 2017 | Old Seat | GE19 Winner | Pred Winner | UUP Votes | SDLP Votes | DUP Votes | Alliance Votes | Green Votes | SF Votes | MIN Votes | OTH Votes | Total Votes |
| Belfast | Garnerville | 3,226 | Belfast East | Alliance | Alliance | 126 | 0 | 898 | 1,043 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2,067 |
| Belfast | Garnerville | 221 | Down North | Alliance | Alliance | 12 | 0 | 53 | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 134 |
| Ards and North Down | Ballycrochan | 2,531 | Down North | DUP | DUP | 304 | 0 | 591 | 556 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 1,532 |
| Ards and North Down | Ballygrainey | 3,643 | Down North | Alliance | Alliance | 248 | 0 | 854 | 894 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 2,206 |
| Ards and North Down | Ballyholme | 2,931 | Down North | Alliance | Alliance | 265 | 0 | 603 | 754 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 1,776 |
| Ards and North Down | Ballymagee | 3,038 | Down North | DUP | DUP | 369 | 0 | 701 | 671 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99 | 1,840 |
| Ards and North Down | Bloomfield | 2,916 | Down North | Alliance | Alliance | 208 | 0 | 673 | 717 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 169 | 1,767 |
| Ards and North Down | Broadway | 2,713 | Down North | Alliance | Alliance | 249 | 0 | 590 | 652 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 152 | 1,643 |
| Ards and North Down | Bryansburn | 2,913 | Down North | Alliance | Alliance | 185 | 0 | 564 | 993 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1,764 |
| Ards and North Down | Carrowdore | 882 | Down North | DUP | DUP | 33 | 0 | 318 | 177 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 534 |
| Ards and North Down | Castle | 2,798 | Down North | DUP | DUP | 182 | 0 | 678 | 676 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 1,694 |
| Ards and North Down | Clandeboye | 2,915 | Down North | Alliance | Alliance | 151 | 0 | 739 | 856 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1,766 |
| Ards and North Down | Cultra | 3,052 | Down North | Alliance | Alliance | 127 | 0 | 546 | 1,153 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 1,849 |
| Ards and North Down | Donaghadee | 2,923 | Down North | DUP | DUP | 316 | 0 | 667 | 642 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 145 | 1,770 |
| Ards and North Down | Groomsport | 2,841 | Down North | DUP | DUP | 340 | 0 | 662 | 624 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 94 | 1,720 |
| Ards and North Down | Harbour | 3,380 | Down North | Alliance | Alliance | 188 | 0 | 625 | 1,029 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 2,048 |
| Ards and North Down | Helen's Bay | 2,974 | Down North | Alliance | Alliance | 137 | 0 | 569 | 1,073 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1,801 |
| Ards and North Down | Holywood | 3,207 | Down North | Alliance | Alliance | 124 | 0 | 577 | 1,217 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 1,942 |
| Ards and North Down | Kilcooley | 2,829 | Down North | Alliance | Alliance | 134 | 0 | 730 | 829 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1,713 |
| Ards and North Down | Loughries | 1,395 | Down North | DUP | DUP | 49 | 0 | 505 | 281 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 845 |
| Ards and North Down | Loughview | 3,080 | Down North | Alliance | Alliance | 113 | 0 | 803 | 928 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1,865 |
| Ards and North Down | Rathgael | 2,522 | Down North | Alliance | Alliance | 141 | 0 | 661 | 708 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1,528 |
| Ards and North Down | Rathmore | 2,876 | Down North | Alliance | Alliance | 255 | 0 | 724 | 743 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1,742 |
| Ards and North Down | Silverbirch | 2,859 | Down North | DUP | DUP | 311 | 0 | 688 | 616 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 117 | 1,732 |
| Ards and North Down | Silverstream | 2,531 | Down North | Alliance | Alliance | 127 | 0 | 592 | 795 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1,532 |
| Ards and North Down | Warren | 3,126 | Down North | Alliance | Alliance | 368 | 0 | 676 | 704 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 1,894 |
| Total | 70,322 | Alliance | Alliance | 5,062 | 0 | 16,287 | 19,398 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,957 | 42,704 | ||
And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Down North if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.