Down North: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Down North: Overview

Prediction: Alliance

Implied MP at 2019:Stephen Farry  (Alliance)
County/Area:Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:70,322
Implied Turnout 2019:60.7%
Predicted Turnout:60.7%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
Alliance19,28045.1%35.2%
DUP16,40538.4%0.0%
UUP5,06911.9%20.2%
OTH1,9574.6%6.4%
SDLP00.0%3.8%
Green00.0%0.8%
MIN00.0%33.6%
Alliance Majority2,8756.7%1.6%
Reform Maj

The 'MIN' party here refers to Alex Easton (ind).

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
Alliance
65%
DUP
0%
UUP
9%
OTH
0%
SDLP
0%
Green
0%
MIN
26%

Down North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Down North constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2024MINSFLAB
Party Winner 2019AllianceDUPCON
Party Winner 2017MINDUPCON
EU Leave %47%44%52%
British Identity47%32%52%
Average Age52.649.349.5
Good Education54%48%49%
Employed54%56%58%
Homeowner75%69%63%
Car owner89%87%77%
Married51%46%45%
Ethnic White97%97%83%
Christian65%81%50%
ABC1 Class63%51%55%
Average House Price£194,861£148,402£308,942

Down North ranks #456 for "Leave", out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Down North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Down North

The new seat of Down North is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow. Ward winners are modelled on the 'first past the post' system, and do not necessarily reflect a majority vote in each ward. For example, a party may be projected as the 'winner' of a ward with 30% support because the other parties only got 20%-25% each.

New seat: Down NorthActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
BelfastGarnerville3,374Belfast EastDUPMIN
BelfastGarnerville140Down NorthDUPMIN
Ards and North DownBallycrochan2,569Down NorthAllianceMIN
Ards and North DownBallygrainey3,582Down NorthDUPMIN
Ards and North DownBallyholme2,942Down NorthAllianceAlliance
Ards and North DownBallymagee3,062Down NorthDUPMIN
Ards and North DownBloomfield2,907Down NorthDUPMIN
Ards and North DownBroadway2,776Down NorthAllianceAlliance
Ards and North DownBryansburn2,942Down NorthAllianceAlliance
Ards and North DownCarrowdore658Down NorthDUPMIN
Ards and North DownCastle2,825Down NorthAllianceAlliance
Ards and North DownClandeboye2,894Down NorthDUPMIN
Ards and North DownCultra3,108Down NorthAllianceAlliance
Ards and North DownDonaghadee2,940Down NorthAllianceAlliance
Ards and North DownGroomsport2,879Down NorthAllianceAlliance
Ards and North DownHarbour3,270Down NorthAllianceAlliance
Ards and North DownHelen's Bay2,938Down NorthAllianceAlliance
Ards and North DownHolywood3,261Down NorthAllianceAlliance
Ards and North DownKilcooley2,902Down NorthDUPMIN
Ards and North DownLoughries1,376Down NorthDUPMIN
Ards and North DownLoughview3,083Down NorthAllianceAlliance
Ards and North DownRathgael2,462Down NorthDUPMIN
Ards and North DownRathmore2,905Down NorthDUPMIN
Ards and North DownSilverbirch2,893Down NorthAllianceMIN
Ards and North DownSilverstream2,514Down NorthDUPMIN
Ards and North DownWarren3,118Down NorthDUPMIN
 Total70,320 AllianceAlliance

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Down North if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (29-Jul-2024 10:12, Py3L, sc4248)