Down North: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Down North: Overview

Prediction: Alliance

Implied MP at 2019:Stephen Farry  (Alliance)
County/Area:Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:70,322
Turnout:60.7%
Implied Majority 2019:3,111

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
Alliance19,39845.4%
DUP16,28738.1%
UUP5,06211.9%
OTH1,9574.6%
Reform Majority3,1117.3%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
Alliance
100%
DUP
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%

Down North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Down North constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019AllianceDUPCON
Party Winner 2017MINDUPCON
Party Winner 2015MINDUPCON
EU Leave %47%44%52%
British Identity57%40%29%
Good Health47%48%48%
UK Born95%93%87%
Good Education43%36%39%
Good Job58%47%51%
High SEC69%57%51%
Average Age50.147.248.3
ABC1 Class60%46%53%
Average House Price£194,861£148,749£305,492
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Down North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Down North

The new seat of Down North is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Down NorthActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastGarnerville3,226Belfast EastAllianceAlliance12608981,04300002,067
BelfastGarnerville221Down NorthAllianceAlliance12053670002134
Ards and North DownBallycrochan2,531Down NorthDUPDUP3040591556000811,532
Ards and North DownBallygrainey3,643Down NorthAllianceAlliance24808548940002102,206
Ards and North DownBallyholme2,931Down NorthAllianceAlliance26506037540001541,776
Ards and North DownBallymagee3,038Down NorthDUPDUP3690701671000991,840
Ards and North DownBloomfield2,916Down NorthAllianceAlliance20806737170001691,767
Ards and North DownBroadway2,713Down NorthAllianceAlliance24905906520001521,643
Ards and North DownBryansburn2,913Down NorthAllianceAlliance1850564993000221,764
Ards and North DownCarrowdore882Down NorthDUPDUP3303181770006534
Ards and North DownCastle2,798Down NorthDUPDUP18206786760001581,694
Ards and North DownClandeboye2,915Down NorthAllianceAlliance1510739856000201,766
Ards and North DownCultra3,052Down NorthAllianceAlliance12705461,153000231,849
Ards and North DownDonaghadee2,923Down NorthDUPDUP31606676420001451,770
Ards and North DownGroomsport2,841Down NorthDUPDUP3400662624000941,720
Ards and North DownHarbour3,380Down NorthAllianceAlliance18806251,0290002062,048
Ards and North DownHelen's Bay2,974Down NorthAllianceAlliance13705691,073000221,801
Ards and North DownHolywood3,207Down NorthAllianceAlliance12405771,217000241,942
Ards and North DownKilcooley2,829Down NorthAllianceAlliance1340730829000201,713
Ards and North DownLoughries1,395Down NorthDUPDUP49050528100010845
Ards and North DownLoughview3,080Down NorthAllianceAlliance1130803928000211,865
Ards and North DownRathgael2,522Down NorthAllianceAlliance1410661708000181,528
Ards and North DownRathmore2,876Down NorthAllianceAlliance2550724743000201,742
Ards and North DownSilverbirch2,859Down NorthDUPDUP31106886160001171,732
Ards and North DownSilverstream2,531Down NorthAllianceAlliance1270592795000181,532
Ards and North DownWarren3,126Down NorthAllianceAlliance36806767040001461,894
 Total70,322 AllianceAlliance5,062016,28719,3980001,95742,704

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Down North if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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