Down North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Down North: Overview

 Prediction: Alliance gain from MIN 

MP at 2017: Lady Sylvia Hermon  (MIN)
County/Area: Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 64,334
Turnout: 60.9%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
MIN16,14841.2%0.0%
DUP14,94038.1%31.3%
Alliance3,6399.3%38.0%
Green2,5496.5%0.0%
OTH9782.5%10.6%
SF5311.4%0.0%
SDLP4001.0%0.0%
UUP00.0%20.2%
MIN Majority1,2083.1%Pred Maj 6.7%
Chance of
winning
MIN
0%
DUP
35%
Alliance
55%
Green
0%
OTH
2%
SF
0%
SDLP
0%
UUP
8%

Down North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Down North constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party WinnerMINDUPCON
EU Leave %48%44%52%
British Identity57%40%29%
Good Health47%48%48%
UK Born95%93%88%
Good Education43%36%39%
Good Job58%47%51%
High SEC69%57%51%
Average Age50.147.248.4
ABC1 Class60%45%53%

Down North ranks #452 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Down North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Down North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Down North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Down North at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Down North. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Down NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
OTH
Votes
BelfastGarnerville201439545044971170344
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2014181029197380302
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey20141750368143870491
North Down and ArdsBallyholme20141950265149830284
North Down and ArdsBallymagee20142460392134530407
North Down and ArdsBloomfield20141680318108700408
North Down and ArdsBroadway20142030280118720295
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2014185139255230880141
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore20142551496521240252
North Down and ArdsCastle2014144032389620439
North Down and ArdsClandeboye2014224154202051470115
North Down and ArdsCultra201422094315292180038
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee2014222040698390451
North Down and ArdsGroomsport20142050341116450359
North Down and ArdsHarbour201414502812311220439
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay201423459331260163040
North Down and ArdsHolywood2014242116373327216063
North Down and ArdsKilcooley201415211418186660376
North Down and ArdsLoughries20141991445661250254
North Down and ArdsLoughview2014174245242822100250
North Down and ArdsRathgael201413720339159570277
North Down and ArdsRathmore201424446364153580184
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch20142100412108430479
North Down and ArdsSilverstream201415348340206760277
North Down and ArdsWarren20142300373118470400

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Down NorthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastGarnerville21900482782463134
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2,19104540885016601361,335
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey3,42006718135119251,020622,085
North Down and ArdsBallyholme2,6430556315212224702431,611
North Down and ArdsBallymagee2,967057281216921813491,806
North Down and ArdsBloomfield2,899056311049820856521,766
North Down and ArdsBroadway2,6180559612110721702421,594
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2,58604151328312126558341,576
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore84301230829951419513
North Down and ArdsCastle2,86405624848518876531,745
North Down and ArdsClandeboye2,64601668716116725524321,612
North Down and ArdsCultra2,68103752525820428548331,633
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee2,93005734875018840511,785
North Down and ArdsGroomsport2,569046281045818709431,564
North Down and ArdsHarbour3,2970555022716330973592,007
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay2,55503453623718126511311,556
North Down and ArdsHolywood3,14604361730024332642391,916
North Down and ArdsKilcooley3,0130137441608224766461,835
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,1570164144513819712705
North Down and ArdsLoughview3,44502585022923534684412,098
North Down and ArdsRathgael2,4620246131397221595361,500
North Down and ArdsRathmore2,6110417221478024544331,591
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch3,01605732945419879531,836
North Down and ArdsSilverstream2,7380406292009726637391,668
North Down and ArdsWarren2,818056901076120786481,717
 Total64,334040114,9403,6392,54853116,15097939,188

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Down North

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Down North.

Down NorthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Alliance
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastGarnerville2192403900059011133
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2,191268044800047401451,335
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey3,420458057500080002502,083
North Down and ArdsBallyholme2,643341045200063701791,609
North Down and ArdsBallymagee2,967363060500064401961,808
North Down and ArdsBloomfield2,899384051000066302101,767
North Down and ArdsBroadway2,618333048700059801771,595
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2,586307040400071001541,575
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore843750273000129037514
North Down and ArdsCastle2,864383050400064502111,743
North Down and ArdsClandeboye2,646308057600057901491,612
North Down and ArdsCultra2,681337041300072001631,633
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee2,930361061200061201991,784
North Down and ArdsGroomsport2,569314052100055901711,565
North Down and ArdsHarbour3,297459041200088902462,006
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay2,555312043000066301511,556
North Down and ArdsHolywood3,146396048600084201911,915
North Down and ArdsKilcooley3,013357061900067101901,837
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,1571030366000185051705
North Down and ArdsLoughview3,445409070700078501972,098
North Down and ArdsRathgael2,462289051000054801511,498
North Down and ArdsRathmore2,611286061200054601451,589
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch3,016378060700064502081,838
North Down and ArdsSilverstream2,738325051500065901681,667
North Down and ArdsWarren2,818347057200060901891,717
 Total64,3347,917012,25500014,87104,13939,182

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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