Down North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Down North: Overview

 Prediction: Alliance hold 

MP at 2019: Stephen Farry  (Alliance)
County/Area: Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 67,099
Turnout: 60.6%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
Alliance18,35845.2%45.2%
DUP15,39037.9%37.9%
UUP4,93612.1%12.2%
OTH1,9594.8%4.5%
SDLP00.0%0.1%
SF00.0%0.1%
Alliance Majority2,9687.3%Pred Maj 7.3%
Chance of
winning
Alliance
67%
DUP
33%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%
SDLP
0%
SF
0%

Down North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Down North constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019AllianceDUPCON
Party Winner 2017MINDUPCON
Party Winner 2015MINDUPCON
EU Leave %48%44%52%
British Identity57%40%29%
Good Health47%48%48%
UK Born95%93%87%
Good Education43%36%39%
Good Job58%47%51%
High SEC69%57%51%
Average Age50.147.248.3
ABC1 Class60%46%53%

Down North ranks #452 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Down North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Down North

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Down North.

Down NorthActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Ards and North DownBallycrochan2,592DUPDUP3121606570010771,567
Ards and North DownBallygrainey3,527AllianceAlliance24238308680301902,136
Ards and North DownBallyholme2,937AllianceAlliance26826077570201441,780
Ards and North DownBallymagee3,081DUPDUP3751713681010941,865
Ards and North DownBloomfield2,886AllianceAlliance20826697110201561,748
Ards and North DownBroadway2,809AllianceAlliance26026146760201481,702
Ards and North DownBryansburn2,887AllianceAlliance1830559985000211,748
Ards and North DownCarrowdore888DUPDUP3303201790006538
Ards and North DownCastle2,810DUPDUP18526846810201481,702
Ards and North DownClandeboye2,821AllianceAlliance1450715829000181,707
Ards and North DownCultra3,071AllianceAlliance12705491,160000211,857
Ards and North DownDonaghadee2,962DUPDUP32226786520201371,793
Ards and North DownGroomsport2,875DUPDUP3461672632010891,741
Ards and North DownHarbour3,302AllianceAlliance18636141,0070301882,001
Ards and North DownHelen's Bay2,938AllianceAlliance13505621,061000211,779
Ards and North DownHolywood3,244AllianceAlliance12505841,232000231,964
Ards and North DownKilcooley2,831AllianceAlliance1340731830000191,714
Ards and North DownLoughries1,390DUPDUP4805032810009841
Ards and North DownLoughview3,066AllianceAlliance1120799925000201,856
Ards and North DownRathgael2,486AllianceAlliance1380652698000171,505
Ards and North DownRathmore2,889AllianceAlliance2550727747000191,748
Ards and North DownSilverbirch2,905DUPDUP31727016280201111,761
Ards and North DownSilverstream2,571AllianceAlliance1280602809000181,557
Ards and North DownWarren3,102AllianceAlliance36726727000201351,878
BelfastGarnerville231AllianceAlliance12055700002139
 Total67,101AllianceAlliance4,9632315,41818,36902301,83140,627

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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