Down South: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Down South: Overview

Prediction: SF

Implied MP at 2019:Chris Hazzard  (SF)
County/Area:Down (Northern Ireland)
Implied Turnout 2019:62.8%
Predicted Turnout:62.8%

SF Majority2,0744.6%4.6%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning

Down South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Down South constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SDLPDUPCON
EU Leave %34%44%52%
British Identity20%32%52%
Average Age49.649.349.5
Good Education48%48%49%
Car owner92%87%77%
Ethnic White99%97%83%
ABC1 Class41%46%55%
Average House Price£151,541£148,218£309,210
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Down South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Down South

The new seat of Down South is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Down SouthActualPredicted
Old SeatGE19
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East706Down SouthDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha866Down SouthDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland516Newry and ArmaghDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,280Down SouthDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland2,166Upper BannDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRathfriland3,396Down SouthDUPDUP
Newry, Mourne and DownAnnalong3,094Down SouthSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownBallydugan2,719Down SouthSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward165Lagan ValleySFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward2,656Down SouthSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownBinnian2,998Down SouthDUPDUP
Newry, Mourne and DownBurren3,088Down SouthSDLPSDLP
Newry, Mourne and DownCastlewellan2,872Down SouthSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownCathedral2,682Down SouthSDLPSDLP
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryleckagh3,403Down SouthSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownDonard2,735Down SouthSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownDundrum3,096Down SouthSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownHilltown3,542Down SouthSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownKilkeel2,482Down SouthSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownKnocknashinna3,139Down SouthSDLPSDLP
Newry, Mourne and DownLecale3,081Down SouthSDLPSDLP
Newry, Mourne and DownLisnacree3,304Down SouthSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge277Newry and ArmaghSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge3,244Down SouthSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownMurlough3,306Down SouthSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile1,694Down SouthSDLPSDLP
Newry, Mourne and DownRostrevor3,283Down SouthSDLPSDLP
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford18Down SouthSDLPSDLP
Newry, Mourne and DownTollymore3,025Down SouthSFSF
Newry, Mourne and DownWarrenpoint3,049Down SouthSFSF
 Total71,882 SFSF

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Down South if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.

© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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