Down South: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Down South: Overview

Prediction: SF

Implied MP at 2019:Chris Hazzard  (SF)
County/Area:Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:72,389
Turnout:62.1%
Implied Majority 2019:3,388

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
SF13,70630.5%
SDLP10,31823.0%
DUP8,95619.9%
Alliance6,88615.3%
UUP3,8778.6%
OTH1,1982.7%
Green130.0%
NAT Majority3,3887.5%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
SF
100%
SDLP
0%
DUP
0%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Down South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Down South constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SDLPDUPCON
EU Leave %39%44%52%
British Identity32%40%29%
Good Health51%48%48%
UK Born95%93%87%
Good Education36%36%39%
Good Job45%47%51%
High SEC62%57%51%
Average Age47.147.248.3
ABC1 Class41%46%53%
Average House Price£156,752£148,749£305,492
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Down South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Down South

The new seat of Down South is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Down SouthActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha820Down SouthDUPDUP5467209101070013514
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,265Down SouthDUPDUP109141255130015505795
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRathfriland3,404Down SouthDUPDUP27632782232203470452,139
Newry, Mourne and DownAnnalong3,084Down SouthSFSF21129349330105890521,939
Newry, Mourne and DownBallydugan2,661Down SouthSFSF12142320827906170251,673
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward3,032Down SouthSFSF20242334832605860211,906
Newry, Mourne and DownBinnian2,993Down SouthDUPDUP20725563827904510511,881
Newry, Mourne and DownBurren3,096Down SouthSDLPSDLP7872519518607060561,946
Newry, Mourne and DownCastlewellan2,898Down SouthSFSF8648616620408340461,822
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryleckagh3,396Down SouthSFSF9575821720707960622,135
Newry, Mourne and DownDonard2,730Down SouthSFSF9043116537006150451,716
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumaness2,963Down SouthSFSF15245423532206670331,863
Newry, Mourne and DownDundrum3,091Down SouthSFSF18145527438706160301,943
Newry, Mourne and DownHilltown3,535Down SouthSFSF15571225324207920682,222
Newry, Mourne and DownKilkeel2,544Down SouthSFSF16422242730904310451,598
Newry, Mourne and DownLisnacree3,321Down SouthSFSF11747024028609160582,087
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge3,288Down SouthSFSF16965325923606840642,065
Newry, Mourne and DownMurlough3,307Down SouthSFSF8750419833009030562,078
Newry, Mourne and DownRostrevor3,280Down SouthSDLPSDLP6376620926007010632,062
Newry, Mourne and DownTollymore2,982Down SouthSFSF8048217622808580501,874
Newry, Mourne and DownWarrenpoint3,220Down SouthSFSF5768021120008110642,023
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,587Lagan ValleyDUPDUP243446814220620991,551
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward162Lagan ValleyAllianceAlliance1563234070397
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland501Newry and ArmaghDUPDUP54451024406503313
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge233Newry and ArmaghSFSF1241261004708144
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,038StrangfordDUPDUP23318471038577601071,702
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,904StrangfordDUPDUP3041627443226630261,627
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland2,054Upper BannDUPDUP2621094631640241001,239
 Total72,389 SFSF3,87710,3188,9566,8861313,70601,19844,954

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Down South if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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