Dumfries and Galloway: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Dumfries and Galloway: Overview

Prediction: SNP

Implied MP at 2019:Alister Jack  (CON)
County/Area:Dumfries and Galloway (Scotland)
Electorate:73,817
Turnout:69.1%
Implied Majority 2019:1,689

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
SNP22,24343.6%
CON18,60036.5%
LAB5,57710.9%
LIB1,9573.8%
OTH1,3912.7%
Green1,0052.0%
Reform2070.4%
NAT Majority3,6437.1%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Chance of winning
SNP
66%
CON
34%
LAB
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%
Reform
0%

Dumfries and Galloway : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Dumfries and Galloway constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONSNPCON
Party Winner 2017CONSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position16° Left23° Left
National Position4° Glo15° Glo
Social Position5° Lib13° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %45%38%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health49%52%48%
UK Born96%93%87%
Good Education30%36%39%
Good Job40%49%51%
High SEC53%55%51%
Average Age52.248.648.3
ABC1 Class39%50%54%
Average House Price£146,552£174,688£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Dumfries and Galloway: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Dumfries and Galloway

The new seat of Dumfries and Galloway is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Dumfries and GallowayActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Dumfries and GallowayStranraer and the Rhins11,275Dumfries and GallowayCONSNP3,015756278311513,33502097,775
Dumfries and GallowayMid Galloway and Wigtown West10,590Dumfries and GallowayCONSNP3,003569231281383,14301917,303
Dumfries and GallowayDee and Glenkens8,205Dumfries and GallowayCONCON2,479343207231102,34501535,660
Dumfries and GallowayCastle Douglas and Crocketford7,553Dumfries and GallowayCONSNP2,179362185211012,22101405,209
Dumfries and GallowayAbbey8,380Dumfries and GallowayCONSNP2,098724241241162,41501615,779
Dumfries and GallowayNorth West Dumfries10,117Dumfries and GallowaySNPSNP1,7181,244297291413,35401956,978
Dumfries and GallowayLochar7,863Dumfries and GallowayCONSNP2,074534230231092,30101515,422
Dumfries and GallowayNith7,454Dumfries and GallowaySNPSNP1,491790227221052,36001455,140
Dumfries and GallowayNith2,380Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleSNPSNP543255607337690461,713
 Total73,817 CONSNP18,6005,5771,9562081,00422,24301,39150,979

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Dumfries and Galloway if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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