Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale: Overview

Prediction: SNP

Implied MP at 2019:David Mundell  (CON)
County/Area:Dumfries and Galloway (Scotland)
Electorate:73,476
Turnout:71.6%
Implied Majority 2019:4,038

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
SNP21,79841.4%
CON20,26738.5%
LAB5,37710.2%
LIB2,3884.5%
OTH1,4962.8%
Green1,0812.1%
Reform2230.4%
NAT Majority1,5312.9%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Chance of winning
SNP
57%
CON
43%
LAB
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%
Reform
0%

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONSNPCON
Party Winner 2017CONSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position9° Left23° Left
National Position4° Glo15° Glo
Social Position5° Lib13° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %44%38%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health51%52%48%
UK Born96%93%87%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job43%49%51%
High SEC57%55%51%
Average Age52.448.648.3
ABC1 Class43%50%54%
Average House Price£170,469£174,688£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

The new seat of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Scottish BordersTweeddale West8,199Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleCONCON2,367351454301432,35601985,899
Scottish BordersTweeddale East7,853Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleCONSNP2,204317371271302,41801795,646
Scottish BordersTweeddale East866Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkCONSNP2262545315284020618
Dumfries and GallowayMid and Upper Nithsdale1,407Dumfries and GallowaySNPSNP30716435419416026971
Dumfries and GallowayMid and Upper Nithsdale6,721Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleCONSNP1,66379112918892,02201234,835
Dumfries and GallowayLochar1,736Dumfries and GallowayCONSNP458118515245080331,197
Dumfries and GallowayLochar1,363Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleCONSNP3989832419403026980
Dumfries and GallowayNith525Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleSNPSNP120561327170010378
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale South11,020Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleCONSNP2,4911,076566391873,31002597,928
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale North11,709Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleCONCON3,664750264331593,33502208,425
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale East and Eskdale8,580Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleCONCON2,757565163231132,39401566,171
South LanarkshireClydesdale East6,628Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleCONCON2,05237412818881,98701214,768
South LanarkshireClydesdale East3,518Lanark and Hamilton EastCONSNP894299789461,0150632,404
South LanarkshireClydesdale South3,351Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleSNPSNP665392599441,1800602,409
 Total73,476 CONSNP20,2665,3762,3882241,08321,79801,49452,629

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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