Essex North West: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Essex North West: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Kemi Badenoch  (CON)
County/Area:Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:76,643
Implied Turnout 2019:72.5%
Predicted Turnout:65.1%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON34,49762.1%32.4%
LIB10,96819.7%15.4%
LAB7,48813.5%30.9%
Green2,6074.7%5.6%
Reform00.0%15.3%
OTH00.0%0.3%
CON Majority23,52942.3%1.5%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Chance of winning
CON
52%
LIB
2%
LAB
43%
Green
0%
Reform
2%
OTH
0%

Essex North West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Essex North West constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position15° Right9° Right
National Position5° Nat7° Nat
Social Position2° Con3° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %51%56%52%
Average Age51.450.549.5
Good Education54%48%49%
Employed62%59%58%
Homeowner73%67%63%
Car owner91%84%77%
Married52%47%45%
Ethnic White93%86%83%
Christian53%50%50%
ABC1 Class69%58%56%
Gross Household Income£51,834£45,686£42,397
Deprivation42%50%52%
Average House Price£457,089£352,365£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Essex North West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Essex North West

The new seat of Essex North West is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Essex North WestActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
ChelmsfordBoreham and The Leighs4,816Saffron WaldenCONCON
ChelmsfordBroomfield and The Walthams7,361Saffron WaldenCONLAB
ChelmsfordChelmsford Rural West2,377Saffron WaldenCONCON
ChelmsfordWrittle4,178Saffron WaldenCONCON
UttlesfordAshdon1,631Saffron WaldenCONCON
UttlesfordClavering1,870Saffron WaldenCONCON
UttlesfordDebden and Wimbish1,749Saffron WaldenCONCON
UttlesfordElsenham and Henham3,628Saffron WaldenCONCON
UttlesfordFlitch Green and Little Dunmow1,900Saffron WaldenCONCON
UttlesfordGreat Dunmow South and Barnston5,001Saffron WaldenCONCON
UttlesfordHigh Easter and The Rodings1,980Saffron WaldenCONCON
UttlesfordLittlebury, Chesterford and Wenden Lofts3,484Saffron WaldenCONCON
UttlesfordNewport3,072Saffron WaldenCONCON
UttlesfordSaffron Walden Audley3,499Saffron WaldenCONLAB
UttlesfordSaffron Walden Castle3,459Saffron WaldenCONLAB
UttlesfordSaffron Walden Shire5,361Saffron WaldenCONLAB
UttlesfordStansted North3,535Saffron WaldenCONLAB
UttlesfordStansted South and Birchanger3,316Saffron WaldenCONLAB
UttlesfordStort Valley1,628Saffron WaldenCONCON
UttlesfordTakeley4,952Saffron WaldenCONCON
UttlesfordGreat Dunmow North3,863Saffron WaldenCONCON
UttlesfordThaxted and the Eastons3,983Saffron WaldenCONCON
 Total76,643 CONCON

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Essex North West if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


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