Fermanagh and South Tyrone: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Overview

Prediction: SF

Implied MP at 2019:Michelle Gildernew  (SF)
County/Area:Fermanagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:74,600
Implied Turnout 2019:69.3%
Predicted Turnout:69.3%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
SF22,42443.4%43.4%
UUP21,19641.0%41.0%
SDLP3,9607.7%7.7%
Alliance2,7255.3%5.3%
OTH7901.5%1.4%
DUP5741.1%1.1%
SF Majority1,2282.4%2.4%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
SF
56%
UUP
44%
SDLP
0%
Alliance
0%
OTH
0%
DUP
0%

Fermanagh and South Tyrone : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Fermanagh and South Tyrone constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SFDUPCON
EU Leave %41%44%52%
British Identity24%32%52%
Average Age49.749.349.5
Good Education45%48%49%
Employed59%56%58%
Homeowner72%69%63%
Car owner90%87%77%
Married49%46%45%
Ethnic White96%97%83%
Christian90%81%50%
ABC1 Class37%46%55%
Average House Price£141,489£148,218£309,210
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The new seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Fermanagh and South TyroneActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,872Newry and ArmaghSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,152Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison2,125Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa2,382Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,492Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,939Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,182Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly2,067Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,974Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh2,037Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh2,083Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,000Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley2,226Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,232Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,232Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,383Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,810Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,451Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,927Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,139Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,772Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,755Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo2,158Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,481Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,401Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP
Mid UlsterBallygawley2,060Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF
Mid UlsterBallygawley441Ulster MidSFSF
Mid UlsterBallysaggart1,847Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF
Mid UlsterCaledon2,573Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,686Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,229Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP
Mid UlsterKillymeal1,986Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP
Mid UlsterKillymeal152Ulster MidUUPUUP
Mid UlsterMoy2,307Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP
Mid UlsterMoygashel1,842Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,185Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF
 Total74,580 SFSF

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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