Fermanagh and South Tyrone: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Overview

Prediction: SF

Implied MP at 2019:Michelle Gildernew  (SF)
County/Area:Fermanagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:68,896
Turnout:68.8%
Implied Majority 2019:1,681

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
SF20,26142.7%
UUP18,58039.2%
SDLP3,9148.3%
Alliance2,3865.0%
DUP1,5833.3%
OTH6961.5%
NAT Majority1,6813.5%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
SF
100%
UUP
0%
SDLP
0%
Alliance
0%
DUP
0%
OTH
0%

Fermanagh and South Tyrone : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Fermanagh and South Tyrone constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SFDUPCON
EU Leave %42%44%52%
British Identity32%40%29%
Good Health50%48%48%
UK Born91%93%87%
Good Education33%36%39%
Good Job40%47%51%
High SEC57%57%51%
Average Age47.747.248.3
ABC1 Class38%46%53%
Average House Price£142,517£148,749£305,492
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The new seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Fermanagh and South TyroneActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall428Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP1413901709704298
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,078Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP79265014304230251,448
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison2,012Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF4577903308120201,401
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa2,260Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF611143010606900241,574
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,362Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF6414904608790301,645
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,819Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP6054504105500261,267
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,162Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP689139014805010291,506
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,965Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF5035503707510231,369
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,922Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF4396703307810201,340
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,917Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF4709003407210201,335
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,967Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP71370016204010241,370
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,028Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF54913504206660231,415
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley2,119Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF5095303908510251,477
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,157Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF56714408906790231,502
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,125Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP8117307904880291,480
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,298Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP74611805606500331,603
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,751Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF4256903106760191,220
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,328Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP7675405307150341,623
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,815Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF4427403206960201,264
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,130Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP626148016605180271,485
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,682Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF4007502906510171,172
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,729Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP52111109904520221,205
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo2,035Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP687102010505010231,418
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,362Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF7061510450740031,645
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,353Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP8621010490624041,640
Mid UlsterBallygawley2,020Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF4951420360733031,409
Mid UlsterCaledon2,540Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP7961380510782041,771
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,679Fermanagh and South TyroneSFSF4801190310538021,170
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,149Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP838790460531031,497
Mid UlsterMoy2,336Fermanagh and South TyroneUUPUUP717147016305700311,628
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,794Newry and ArmaghSFSF21857047914108960682,372
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall3,337Newry and ArmaghDUPDUP29331493113903750362,088
Mid UlsterBallygawley457Ulster MidSFSF23615323012801289
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield780Ulster MidSFSF419512042019501494
 Total68,896 SFSF18,5803,9141,5832,386020,261069647,420

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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