Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Overview

 Prediction: SF hold 

MP at 2019: Michelle Gildernew  (SF)
County/Area: Fermanagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 72,848
Turnout: 69.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SF21,98643.3%43.3%
UUP21,92943.2%43.2%
SDLP3,4466.8%6.8%
Alliance2,6505.2%5.2%
OTH7511.5%1.4%
DUP00.0%0.0%
SF Majority570.1%Pred Maj 0.1%
Chance of
winning
SF
51%
UUP
49%
SDLP
0%
Alliance
0%
OTH
0%
DUP
0%

Fermanagh and South Tyrone : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Fermanagh and South Tyrone constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015UUPDUPCON
EU Leave %41%44%52%
British Identity32%40%29%
Good Health49%48%48%
UK Born88%93%87%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job39%47%51%
High SEC54%57%51%
Average Age47.347.248.3
ABC1 Class37%46%53%

Fermanagh and South Tyrone ranks #533 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Fermanagh and South Tyrone

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Fermanagh and South Tyrone at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Fermanagh and South TyroneActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
OTH
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall2014432209585160317263
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches2014465200621200305286
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard201460713231600187116
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison20142322391800611197
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa2014387263760039877
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen201442115317800499315
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough2014283813160044250
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole20143221202454218226263
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly201438218512000504261
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin20142532232600604220
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh20141572031070065337
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh20145091422190019997
Fermanagh and OmaghErne20141731591191110397289
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley20143301618300504202
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown20144513198900497102
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw20143834334183133224
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick20142927924764258265
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea20141742281660091656
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge20143941124370062073
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler20141542021320073845
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora20142491401795524245266
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea2014111189880065535
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry20142121011502512204197
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo20144441861480026662
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2014332210359004780
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2014432132510003850
Mid UlsterBallygawley2014268294268006290
Mid UlsterBallysaggart2014194163205410410443
Mid UlsterCaledon2014366186446005010
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield2014336241330005090
Mid UlsterFivemiletown201440488508003160
Mid UlsterKillyman201432151320180126234
Mid UlsterKillymeal201430598319580202352
Mid UlsterMoy2014222137208610239307
Mid UlsterMoygashel20143012636438088313
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2014162202125170438304

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Fermanagh and South TyroneEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall52917629019014006370
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches38913021014010204271
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,2129369607404120221,540
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,7593888605906740181,225
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,9566329806605470201,363
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,1256409807206490221,481
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,5233926005105430151,061
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,414813121010506160271,682
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,97156810006706190201,374
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,8004069006006810181,255
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,5042956905006180151,047
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,8987939106303560191,322
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,26059812208107490241,574
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,7384648505905860181,212
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,37474512007906870241,655
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,2188547407505190221,544
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,2467659707706030231,565
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea2,0033799106708380201,395
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,1295468407107610221,484
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,6533187605506860171,152
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,261701128011906010271,576
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,402261630470592014977
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,7595729507404640191,224
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,8027209106003660181,255
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,31164112107807470241,611
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,44383911108306450251,703
Mid UlsterBallygawley2,02847410206807490211,414
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,228937166012809850332,249
Mid UlsterCaledon2,51271212908407990261,750
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,6574498605605470171,155
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,2047999007405500221,535
Mid UlsterKillyman1,9457087107204840191,354
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,720870120012107560281,895
Mid UlsterMoy2,602822140011707070271,813
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,50685877010506810261,747
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,76672514709809290281,927
 Total72,84721,9263,44502,648021,988075050,757

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Fermanagh and South Tyrone

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

Fermanagh and South TyronePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall52917629019014006370
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches38913021014010204271
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,2129369607404120211,539
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,7593888605906740171,224
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,9566329806605470191,362
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,1256409807206490211,480
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,5233926005105430141,060
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,414813121010506160251,680
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,97156810006706190191,373
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,8004069006006810171,254
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,5042956905006180141,046
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,8987939106303560181,321
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,26059812208107490221,572
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,7384648505905860171,211
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,37474512007906870221,653
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,2188547407505190211,543
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,2467659707706030211,563
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea2,0033799106708380191,394
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,1295468407107610211,483
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,6533187605506860161,151
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,261701128011906010251,574
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,402261630470592013976
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,7595729507404640181,223
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,8027209106003660171,254
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,31164112107807470221,609
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,44383911108306450231,701
Mid UlsterBallygawley2,02847410206807490201,413
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,228938166112809850312,249
Mid UlsterCaledon2,51271212908407990241,748
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,6574498605605470161,154
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,2047999007405500211,534
Mid UlsterKillyman1,9457087107204840181,353
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,720870120012107560261,893
Mid UlsterMoy2,602822140011707070251,811
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,50685877010506810241,745
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,76672514709809290261,925
 Total72,84721,9273,44512,648021,988070350,712

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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