Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Seat Details

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone, or click here to find another new seat.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Overview

Prediction: SF hold

MP at 2019:Michelle Gildernew  (SF)
County/Area:Fermanagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:72,848
Turnout:69.7%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
SF21,98643.3%43.3%
UUP21,92943.2%43.2%
SDLP3,4466.8%6.8%
Alliance2,6505.2%5.2%
OTH7511.5%1.4%
DUP00.0%0.0%
SF Majority570.1%0.1%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
SF
49%
UUP
51%
SDLP
0%
Alliance
0%
OTH
0%
DUP
0%

Fermanagh and South Tyrone : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Fermanagh and South Tyrone constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015UUPDUPCON
EU Leave %41%44%52%
British Identity25%32%52%
Average Age49.749.349.5
Good Education45%48%49%
Employed59%56%58%
Homeowner72%69%63%
Car owner90%87%77%
Married49%46%45%
Ethnic White95%97%83%
Christian90%81%50%
ABC1 Class37%46%55%
Average House Price£141,866£148,218£309,210

Fermanagh and South Tyrone ranks #531 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Fermanagh and South Tyrone

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

Fermanagh and South TyroneActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall433DUPUUP1374701709704302
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches461DUPUUP14841024010206321
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,152UUPUUP85824015104400241,497
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison2,125SFSF4996703708570201,480
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa2,382SFSF610192011207200241,658
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,492SFSF716815209310301,738
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,939UUPUUP682804605890261,351
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,182UUPUUP665178015005000281,521
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly2,067SFSF571904207930231,438
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,974SFSF4763903608040201,375
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh2,037SFSF49510203707630201,417
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh2,083UUPUUP78046017404260241,450
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,000SFSF51316704106500211,392
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley2,226SFSF576904408970241,550
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,232SFSF55518809306960221,554
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,232UUPUUP8834308605150291,556
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,383UUPUUP75714315906690321,661
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,810SFSF4545503406980191,260
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,451UUPUUP850915807570331,708
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,927SFSF4806803607380201,342
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,139UUPUUP598185016705130251,488
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,772SFSF4247703206840171,234
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,755UUPUUP504143010104530211,222
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo2,158UUPUUP716124011205260231,501
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,481SFSF7062010480771031,729
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,401UUPUUP888950510636041,674
Mid UlsterBallygawley2,061SFSF4751800370741031,436
Mid UlsterBallysaggart1,847SFSF51811007905560211,284
Mid UlsterCaledon2,573SFSF7771750510786041,793
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,686SFSF4581480310535021,174
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,229UUPUUP893550500552041,554
Mid UlsterKillyman1,835UUPUUP7193607004290241,278
Mid UlsterKillymeal1,986UUPUUP65197014104680261,383
Mid UlsterMoy2,307UUPUUP677185016105560291,608
Mid UlsterMoygashel1,842UUPUUP6666014804370251,282
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,185SFSF56218604207070231,520
 Total72,845SFSF21,9373,44632,650021,992070350,731

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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