Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Overview

 Prediction: SF hold 

MP at 2019: Michelle Gildernew  (SF)
County/Area: Fermanagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 72,848
Turnout: 69.7%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
SF21,98643.3%43.3%
UUP21,92943.2%43.2%
SDLP3,4466.8%6.8%
Alliance2,6505.2%5.2%
OTH7511.5%1.4%
DUP00.0%0.0%
SF Majority570.1%Pred Maj 0.1%
Chance of
winning
SF
50%
UUP
50%
SDLP
0%
Alliance
0%
OTH
0%
DUP
0%

Fermanagh and South Tyrone : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Fermanagh and South Tyrone constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015UUPDUPCON
EU Leave %41%44%52%
British Identity32%40%29%
Good Health49%48%48%
UK Born88%93%87%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job39%47%51%
High SEC54%57%51%
Average Age47.347.248.3
ABC1 Class37%46%53%

Fermanagh and South Tyrone ranks #531 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Fermanagh and South Tyrone

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

Fermanagh and South TyroneActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall423DUPUUP1403801709604295
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches437DUPUUP1463202209806304
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,063UUPUUP78664014204200231,435
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison2,025SFSF4608003408170191,410
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa2,257SFSF610143010606890221,570
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,343SFSF6374904608720271,631
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,848UUPUUP6154604105590241,285
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,182UUPUUP696140014905060281,519
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,959SFSF5015503707480211,362
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,926SFSF4406703307830191,342
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,925SFSF4729103407240191,340
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh2,003UUPUUP72672016504090221,394
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,043SFSF55313604206700211,422
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley2,112SFSF5075303908480231,470
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,131SFSF56014308806710211,483
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,111UUPUUP8077307904850271,471
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,306UUPUUP74911815606520311,607
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,784SFSF4337003206890181,242
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,357UUPUUP7775515307240321,642
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,848SFSF4507603307080191,286
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,121UUPUUP623147016505160241,475
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,693SFSF4037502906550161,178
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,731UUPUUP52111109904520211,204
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo2,064UUPUUP697104010605080221,437
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,340SFSF7001490450733031,630
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,344UUPUUP8591000480622041,633
Mid UlsterBallygawley2,018SFSF4941420360732031,407
Mid UlsterBallysaggart2,619SFSF754134111107940311,825
Mid UlsterCaledon2,518UUPUUP7891370500775041,755
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,680SFSF4801190310538021,170
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,127UUPUUP830780460525031,482
Mid UlsterKillyman1,870UUPUUP7076506904360241,301
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,486UUPUUP818116117505890331,732
Mid UlsterMoy2,344UUPUUP721147016305720291,632
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,217UUPUUP77044117605240301,545
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,592SFSF70417705008470271,805
 Total72,847SFSF21,9353,44652,647021,986070250,721

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


Go back to home page.

© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (24-Jul-2020 19:51, Py3L, sc1871)