Fylde: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Fylde: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Mark Menzies  (CON)
County/Area:Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:74,016
Turnout:70.0%
Implied Majority 2019:20,248

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
CON29,94457.8%
LAB12,70524.5%
Green3,3766.5%
LIB3,0595.9%
OTH2,6985.2%
CON Majority17,23933.3%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Chance of winning
CON
98%
LAB
2%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%

Fylde : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Fylde constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONLABCON
Party Winner 2017CONLABCON
Party Winner 2015CONLABCON
Economic Position9° Right4° Left
National Position7° Nat1° Nat
Social Position4° Con2° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %57%54%52%
British Identity30%28%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born95%92%87%
Good Education42%37%39%
Good Job59%49%51%
High SEC61%48%51%
Average Age53.748.548.3
ABC1 Class62%50%54%
Average House Price£242,304£202,780£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Fylde: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Fylde

The new seat of Fylde is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: FyldeActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
FyldeAnsdell3,421FyldeCONCON1,5884251320132001102,387
FyldeAshton3,683FyldeCONCON1,2586012550290001662,570
FyldeCentral3,285FyldeCONCON1,057805960226001092,293
FyldeClifton3,339FyldeCONCON1,4334961270129001452,330
FyldeElswick and Little Eccleston1,270FyldeCONCON503234450500055887
FyldeFairhaven3,405FyldeCONCON1,4924231180230001122,375
FyldeFreckleton East2,408FyldeCONCON88243683019000911,682
FyldeFreckleton West2,188FyldeCONCON8614168408600821,529
FyldeHeyhouses3,971FyldeCONCON1,5785923100164001292,773
FyldeKilnhouse3,084FyldeCONCON1,0606002630129001012,153
FyldeKirkham North3,443FyldeCONCON1,3166571500140001402,403
FyldeKirkham South1,990FyldeCONCON7074397407600921,388
FyldeMedlar-with-Wesham3,002FyldeCONCON1,0716561250123001202,095
FyldeNewton and Treales2,477FyldeCONCON988438920100001111,729
FyldePark4,078FyldeCONCON1,8355831350150001442,847
FyldeRibby-with-Wrea1,422FyldeCONCON655171450520069992
FyldeSt Johns3,595FyldeCONCON1,4016521600154001402,507
FyldeSt Leonards3,544FyldeCONCON1,3057241150209001212,474
FyldeSingleton and Greenhalgh1,154FyldeCONCON501182330400049805
FyldeStaining and Weeton2,448FyldeCONCON1,0973946808600641,709
FyldeWarton and Westby4,643FyldeCONCON1,9567671350169002153,242
WyreBreck3,289Wyre and Preston NorthCONCON1,4045431320133001162,328
WyreHardhorn with High Cross5,421Wyre and Preston NorthCONCON2,4538921680192001333,838
WyreTithebarn3,456Wyre and Preston NorthCONCON1,541579116012400862,446
 Total74,016 CONCON29,94212,7053,06103,374002,70051,782

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Fylde if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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