Herefordshire North: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Herefordshire North: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Bill Wiggin  (CON)
County/Area:Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:70,784
Turnout:72.5%
Implied Majority 2019:24,941

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
CON29,66557.8%
LAB7,17514.0%
Green6,40912.5%
LIB6,17712.0%
OTH1,9063.7%
CON Majority22,49043.8%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Chance of winning
CON
100%
LAB
0%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%

Herefordshire North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Herefordshire North constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position12° Right3° Right
National Position11° Nat7° Nat
Social Position5° Con6° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %57%59%52%
British Identity27%29%29%
Good Health46%45%48%
UK Born94%89%87%
Good Education42%36%39%
Good Job48%48%51%
High SEC52%46%51%
Average Age53.548.648.3
ABC1 Class50%49%54%
Average House Price£323,158£235,222£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Herefordshire North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Herefordshire North

The new seat of Herefordshire North is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Herefordshire NorthActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HerefordshireArrow2,959Herefordshire NorthCONCON1,398331159018900722,149
HerefordshireBackbury2,603Herefordshire NorthCONCON1,208213204019700701,892
HerefordshireBircher3,203Herefordshire NorthCONCON1,463267258025200862,326
HerefordshireBishops Frome and Cradley2,632Herefordshire NorthCONCON1,038194184042700681,911
HerefordshireBromyard Bringsty2,819Herefordshire NorthCONCON1,337231206020000742,048
HerefordshireBromyard West2,447Herefordshire NorthCONCON1,058286192017700661,779
HerefordshireCastle2,573Herefordshire NorthCONCON1,216197191019600681,868
HerefordshireHagley3,176Herefordshire NorthCONCON1,494264235023100842,308
HerefordshireHampton2,862Herefordshire NorthCONCON1,406202196020300742,081
HerefordshireHope End2,988Herefordshire NorthCONCON1,237465193020000762,171
HerefordshireKington2,512Herefordshire NorthCONCON843245477018300781,826
HerefordshireLedbury North2,553Herefordshire NorthCONCON1,124248224018800711,855
HerefordshireLedbury South2,482Herefordshire NorthCONCON793353407017200771,802
HerefordshireLedbury West2,681Herefordshire NorthCONCON869271531019300831,947
HerefordshireLeominster East2,774Herefordshire NorthCONCON916362212045000742,014
HerefordshireLeominster North and Rural3,023Herefordshire NorthCONCON1,210325201038300772,196
HerefordshireLeominster South2,610Herefordshire NorthCONCON888315204042000701,897
HerefordshireLeominster West2,140Herefordshire NorthCONCON707230230032400641,555
HerefordshireMortimer2,721Herefordshire NorthCONCON1,152199335020500851,976
HerefordshireOld Gore2,544Herefordshire NorthCONCON1,127169155033400641,849
HerefordshireThree Crosses2,882Herefordshire NorthCONCON1,280202172036800722,094
HerefordshireWeobley3,008Herefordshire NorthCONCON1,173530195021000762,184
HerefordshireCredenhill2,521Herefordshire NorthCONCON1,145233200018500681,831
HerefordshireQueenswood2,752Herefordshire NorthCONCON1,261247210020800731,999
HerefordshireStoney Street2,400Hereford and South HerefordshireCONCON950342189011000621,653
HerefordshireStoney Street360Herefordshire NorthCONCON14334470270011262
HerefordshireSutton Walls2,559Herefordshire NorthCONCON1,228217171017800651,859
 Total70,784 CONCON29,6647,1726,17806,410001,90851,332

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Herefordshire North if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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