Lagan Valley: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Lagan Valley: Overview

Prediction: DUP

Implied MP at 2019:Jeffrey Donaldson  (DUP)
County/Area:Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:75,827
Implied Turnout 2019:60.0%
Predicted Turnout:60.0%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
DUP19,59443.1%43.1%
Alliance12,35627.2%27.2%
UUP8,15517.9%18.0%
SF2,2404.9%5.0%
SDLP1,9644.3%4.4%
OTH1,1782.6%2.4%
DUP Majority7,23815.9%15.9%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
DUP
86%
Alliance
12%
UUP
2%
SF
0%
SDLP
0%
OTH
0%

Lagan Valley : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Lagan Valley constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %54%44%52%
British Identity43%32%52%
Average Age49.749.349.5
Good Education53%48%49%
Employed60%56%58%
Homeowner76%69%63%
Car owner92%87%77%
Married52%46%45%
Ethnic White97%97%83%
Christian76%81%50%
ABC1 Class56%46%55%
Average House Price£175,987£148,218£309,210
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Lagan Valley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Lagan Valley

The new seat of Lagan Valley is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Lagan ValleyActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,677Upper BannSFSF
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney59Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,311Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,608Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin3,602Upper BannDUPDUP
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly3,153Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,795Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry28Upper BannDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,348Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,336Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,406Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,380Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,444Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara15Down SouthDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,282Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,459Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,690Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,663Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,683Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,490Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,033Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,473Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,265Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,965Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,743Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,299Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,645Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,448Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,381Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,608Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,871Lagan ValleyDUPDUP
 Total76,160 DUPDUP

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Lagan Valley if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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