Lagan Valley: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Lagan Valley: Overview

Prediction: DUP

Implied MP at 2019:Jeffrey Donaldson  (DUP)
County/Area:Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:73,186
Turnout:60.0%
Implied Majority 2019:6,973

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
DUP18,89843.0%
Alliance11,92527.2%
UUP7,90618.0%
SF2,1785.0%
SDLP1,9194.4%
OTH1,0772.5%
LIB Majority6,97315.9%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
DUP
100%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
SF
0%
SDLP
0%
OTH
0%

Lagan Valley : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Lagan Valley constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %54%44%52%
British Identity55%40%29%
Good Health50%48%48%
UK Born95%93%87%
Good Education40%36%39%
Good Job55%47%51%
High SEC66%57%51%
Average Age48.147.248.3
ABC1 Class55%46%53%
Average House Price£176,546£148,749£305,492
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Lagan Valley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Lagan Valley

The new seat of Lagan Valley is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Lagan ValleyActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara15Down SouthDUPDUP114201009
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,328Lagan ValleyDUPDUP2944888061802701281,995
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly3,129Lagan ValleyDUPDUP3154885350004601131,875
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,781Lagan ValleyDUPDUP251557614990890131,668
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,293Lagan ValleyDUPDUP23363577405090871,374
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,319Lagan ValleyDUPDUP29150665367080101,391
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,529Lagan ValleyDUPDUP3377595159801401402,115
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,407Lagan ValleyDUPDUP33445663381090111,443
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,400Lagan ValleyDUPDUP30749720344090111,440
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,262Lagan ValleyDUPDUP329654923840740111,355
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,512Lagan ValleyDUPDUP347516183980800121,506
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,703Lagan ValleyDUPDUP317427824580100121,621
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,609Lagan ValleyDUPDUP374716214750100131,564
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,768Lagan ValleyDUPDUP2508174146401101121,659
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,471Lagan ValleyDUPDUP36470653374090111,481
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,070Lagan ValleyDUPDUP17647576346090871,241
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,472Lagan ValleyDUPDUP364326503840410111,482
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,288Lagan ValleyDUPDUP22065625364090891,372
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,864Lagan ValleyDUPDUP285328414690720181,717
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,769Lagan ValleyDUPDUP359815955190920131,659
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,285Lagan ValleyDUPDUP33149572398090111,370
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,664Lagan ValleyDUPDUP351826045350110131,596
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,513Lagan ValleyDUPDUP1966470542001101111,507
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,339Lagan ValleyDUPDUP32349652360090101,403
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,592Lagan ValleyDUPDUP363736114340610121,554
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,876Lagan ValleyDUPDUP32810799675201230182,324
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,460Upper BannSFSF492875412700942002,089
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin3,442Upper BannDUPDUP2151369414040381002,077
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry26Upper BannDUPDUP2183020016
 Total73,186 DUPDUP7,9061,91918,89811,92502,17801,07743,903

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Lagan Valley if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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