Llanelli: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Llanelli: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Nia Griffith  (LAB)
County/Area:Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate:71,667
Turnout:64.4%
Implied Majority 2019:3,602

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
LAB18,47440.0%
CON11,23324.3%
Plaid10,22822.1%
Reform4,1349.0%
Green1,4833.2%
OTH6361.4%
LAB Majority7,24115.7%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Chance of winning
LAB
84%
CON
12%
Plaid
5%
Reform
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Llanelli : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Llanelli constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position18° Left8° Left
National Position2° Nat
Social Position3° Lib2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %56%53%52%
British Identity19%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born96%94%87%
Good Education33%37%39%
Good Job44%46%51%
High SEC43%46%51%
Average Age50.949.548.3
ABC1 Class43%48%54%
Average House Price£156,442£194,381£309,875
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Llanelli: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Llanelli

The new seat of Llanelli is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: LlanelliActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Reform
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireGorslas3,887Carmarthen East and DinefwrPlaidPlaid7416030132891,1720382,775
CarmarthenshireLlangunnor2,067Carmarthen East and DinefwrPlaidPlaid418389076475250201,475
CarmarthenshireLlangyndeyrn2,891Carmarthen East and DinefwrPlaidPlaid5155450111668000282,065
CarmarthenshireSt Ishmael2,307Carmarthen East and DinefwrPlaidPlaid552247089536830231,647
CarmarthenshireBigyn4,525LlanelliLABLAB6321,3530281924610392,858
CarmarthenshireBurry Port3,265LlanelliLABLAB4591,1110182662170282,063
CarmarthenshireDafen2,446LlanelliLABLAB3258430146501600211,545
CarmarthenshireElli2,347LlanelliCONLAB4815900150481940201,483
CarmarthenshireFelinfoel1,329LlanelliLABLAB1834600762780012838
CarmarthenshireGlanymor4,294LlanelliLABLAB5261,2850249875280372,712
CarmarthenshireGlyn1,654LlanelliCONLAB2833330101342800141,045
CarmarthenshireHendy2,686LlanelliLABLAB4445880168544180231,695
CarmarthenshireHengoed3,338LlanelliLABLAB5287980198684880292,109
CarmarthenshireKidwelly2,806LlanelliLABLAB4166990160574170241,773
CarmarthenshireLlannon4,062LlanelliLABLAB5789790234826560352,564
CarmarthenshireLliedi3,809LlanelliLABLAB5861,1670261772820332,406
CarmarthenshireLlwynhendy2,998LlanelliLABLAB3391,0420207612190261,894
CarmarthenshirePembrey3,403LlanelliLABLAB5529780196693250302,150
CarmarthenshirePontyberem2,145LlanelliCONLAB3173820224433680191,353
CarmarthenshireSwiss Valley2,088LlanelliLABLAB4175630134421460181,320
CarmarthenshireTrimsaran1,879LlanelliLABLAB2724440117382990161,186
CarmarthenshireTycroes1,854LlanelliLABLAB2754880102382520161,171
CarmarthenshireTyisha2,380LlanelliLABLAB2667630135482700211,503
CarmarthenshireBynea3,269LlanelliLABLAB5118540187664190282,065
CarmarthenshireLlangennech3,938LlanelliLABLAB6179690219805690342,488
 Total71,667 LABLAB11,23318,47304,1351,48210,228063246,183

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Llanelli if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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