Llanelli: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Llanelli: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Nia Griffith  (LAB)
County/Area:Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate:69,600
Implied Turnout 2019:64.2%
Predicted Turnout:66.9%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
LAB17,42639.0%33.5%
CON13,69330.6%12.0%
Plaid9,68021.6%23.8%
Reform3,9148.8%24.1%
LIB00.0%1.6%
Green00.0%3.6%
OTH00.0%1.3%
LAB Majority3,7338.3%9.3%
LAB Maj

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Chance of winning
LAB
66%
CON
1%
Plaid
15%
Reform
18%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Llanelli : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Llanelli constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party Winner 2024LABLABLAB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Economic Position18° Left8° Left
National Position2° Nat
Social Position2° Lib2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %56%53%52%
Average Age52.251.149.5
Good Education46%49%49%
Employed53%53%58%
Homeowner70%67%63%
Car owner84%81%77%
Married46%44%45%
Ethnic White97%94%83%
Christian48%47%50%
ABC1 Class50%52%56%
Gross Household Income£33,998£36,386£42,397
Deprivation55%54%52%
Average House Price£154,307£193,404£313,528

Llanelli ranks #258 for "Leave", #588 for "Economic Right Position", #348 for "National Position" and #482 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Llanelli: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Llanelli

The new seat of Llanelli is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: LlanelliActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CarmarthenshireBigyn4,765LlanelliLABLAB
CarmarthenshireBurry Port3,290LlanelliLABLAB
CarmarthenshireBynea3,088LlanelliLABLAB
CarmarthenshireDafen and Felinfoel3,885LlanelliLABLAB
CarmarthenshireElli1,657LlanelliCONLAB
CarmarthenshireGlanymor4,445LlanelliLABLAB
CarmarthenshireGlyn1,681LlanelliCONLAB
CarmarthenshireGorslas3,644Carmarthen East and DinefwrCONPlaid
CarmarthenshireHendy2,261LlanelliLABLAB
CarmarthenshireHengoed3,127LlanelliLABLAB
CarmarthenshireKidwelly and St Ishmael2,152LlanelliCONLAB
CarmarthenshireKidwelly and St Ishmael1,759Carmarthen East and DinefwrCONLAB
CarmarthenshireLlangennech3,941LlanelliLABLAB
CarmarthenshireLlangyndeyrn3,918Carmarthen East and DinefwrCONPlaid
CarmarthenshireLlannon4,076LlanelliLABLAB
CarmarthenshireLliedi3,834LlanelliLABLAB
CarmarthenshireLlwynhendy3,153LlanelliLABLAB
CarmarthenshirePembrey3,389LlanelliLABLAB
CarmarthenshirePontyberem2,131LlanelliCONPlaid
CarmarthenshireSwiss Valley2,103LlanelliLABLAB
CarmarthenshireTrimsaran1,882LlanelliLABReform
CarmarthenshireTycroes2,087LlanelliLABLAB
CarmarthenshireTyisha3,331LlanelliLABLAB
 Total69,599 LABLAB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Llanelli if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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