Londonderry East: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Londonderry East: Overview

Prediction: DUP

Implied MP at 2019:Gregory Campbell  (DUP)
County/Area:Londonderry (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:72,184
Turnout:57.0%
Implied Majority 2019:9,022

PartyPredicted VotesPredicted Share
DUP16,20439.4%
SDLP7,18217.4%
SF6,27115.2%
Alliance6,00414.6%
UUP3,6989.0%
OTH1,7584.3%
MIN440.1%
LIB Majority9,02221.9%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
DUP
100%
SDLP
0%
SF
0%
Alliance
0%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%
MIN
0%

Londonderry East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Londonderry East constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %47%44%52%
British Identity44%40%29%
Good Health48%48%48%
UK Born95%93%87%
Good Education35%36%39%
Good Job46%47%51%
High SEC57%57%51%
Average Age47.547.248.3
ABC1 Class44%46%53%
Average House Price£146,374£148,749£305,492
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View the colour scheme used in the table above

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Average House PriceAverage residential house price around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Londonderry East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Londonderry East

The new seat of Londonderry East is made up of the following wards, with the predicted votes shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Londonderry EastActualPredicted results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneClaudy93FoyleSDLPSDLP2321020102159
Derry and StrabaneEglinton2,848FoyleSDLPSDLP10099243082013242281,806
Causeway Coast and GlensAghadowey2,543Londonderry EastDUPDUP23620868914301430251,444
Causeway Coast and GlensAltahullion2,226Londonderry EastDUPDUP10011643416103820701,263
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic2,603Londonderry EastDUPDUP1632725363330900841,478
Causeway Coast and GlensBallykelly2,277Londonderry EastSFSF8513939613504650721,292
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock2,596Londonderry EastDUPDUP2451627442180840201,473
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland2,626Londonderry EastDUPDUP1972136672730780611,489
Causeway Coast and GlensCoolessan1,878Londonderry EastDUPDUP3214849010802330551,066
Causeway Coast and GlensDrumsurn2,525Londonderry EastDUPDUP6022468821901940471,432
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan2,567Londonderry EastDUPDUP2351616692340810771,457
Causeway Coast and GlensDungiven2,480Londonderry EastSFSF3030835113105120761,408
Causeway Coast and GlensFeeny2,452Londonderry EastSFSF3028635313105150771,392
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh2,338Londonderry EastDUPDUP16022748413202800441,327
Causeway Coast and GlensGreysteel3,116Londonderry EastSFSF3834945316906620991,770
Causeway Coast and GlensGreystone2,365Londonderry EastDUPDUP7315870722201290531,342
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield2,563Londonderry EastDUPDUP1902015713300830791,454
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea2,648Londonderry EastDUPDUP16229649414203670421,503
Causeway Coast and GlensMacosquin2,485Londonderry EastDUPDUP2361267571820810281,410
Causeway Coast and GlensMagilligan2,276Londonderry EastDUPDUP5519961917501980451,291
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel2,585Londonderry EastDUPDUP1432456043170830751,467
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce2,140Londonderry EastDUPDUP1591355152630730691,214
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart2,178Londonderry EastDUPDUP1352514292610920691,237
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry2,747Londonderry EastDUPDUP1681487772880920871,560
Causeway Coast and GlensRoeside2,056Londonderry EastDUPDUP851476221860960311,167
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity2,261Londonderry EastDUPDUP1381546102420710671,282
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside2,933Londonderry EastDUPDUP15529765730901600861,664
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall2,742Londonderry EastDUPDUP2022436703200800411,556
Derry and StrabaneClaudy2,495Londonderry EastSDLPSDLP3742537215103640671,416
Derry and StrabanePark2,542Londonderry EastSFSF4732040614504410831,442
 Total72,184 DUPDUP3,6987,18216,2046,00406,271441,75841,161

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Londonderry East if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2021+ in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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