Londonderry East: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Londonderry East: Overview

Prediction: DUP

Implied MP at 2019:Gregory Campbell  (DUP)
County/Area:Londonderry (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:72,184
Implied Turnout 2019:57.0%
Predicted Turnout:57.0%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
DUP16,20439.4%39.4%
SDLP7,18217.4%17.5%
SF6,27115.2%15.3%
Alliance6,00414.6%14.6%
UUP3,6989.0%9.1%
OTH1,7584.3%4.0%
MIN440.1%0.1%
DUP Majority9,02221.9%21.9%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Chance of winning
DUP
91%
SDLP
4%
SF
2%
Alliance
2%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%
MIN
0%

Londonderry East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Londonderry East constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %47%44%52%
British Identity37%32%52%
Average Age50.649.349.5
Good Education46%48%49%
Employed53%56%58%
Homeowner69%69%63%
Car owner89%87%77%
Married48%46%45%
Ethnic White98%97%83%
Christian84%81%50%
ABC1 Class44%46%55%
Average House Price£146,374£148,218£309,210
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Londonderry East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Londonderry East

The new seat of Londonderry East is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Londonderry EastActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
Causeway Coast and GlensAghadowey2,585Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensAltahullion2,251Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic2,548Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensBallykelly2,282Londonderry EastSFSF
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock2,628Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland2,644Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensCoolessan1,914Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensDrumsurn2,502Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan2,563Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensDungiven2,526Londonderry EastSFSF
Causeway Coast and GlensFeeny2,454Londonderry EastSFSF
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh2,370Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensGreysteel3,141Londonderry EastSFSF
Causeway Coast and GlensGreystone2,383Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield2,568Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea2,604Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensMacosquin2,488Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensMagilligan2,329Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel2,438Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce2,186Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart2,208Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry2,684Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensRoeside2,079Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity2,215Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside2,823Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall2,729Londonderry EastDUPDUP
Derry and StrabaneClaudy2,526Londonderry EastSDLPSDLP
Derry and StrabaneClaudy94FoyleSDLPSDLP
Derry and StrabaneEglinton2,825FoyleSDLPSDLP
Derry and StrabanePark2,574Londonderry EastSFSF
 Total72,161 DUPDUP

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Londonderry East if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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