Londonderry East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Londonderry East: Overview

 Prediction: DUP hold 

MP at 2019: Gregory Campbell  (DUP)
County/Area: Londonderry (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 69,246
Turnout: 56.8%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
DUP15,76540.1%40.2%
SDLP6,15815.7%15.7%
SF6,12815.6%15.7%
Alliance5,92115.1%15.1%
UUP3,5999.2%9.2%
OTH1,7314.4%4.1%
DUP Majority9,60724.4%Pred Maj 24.5%
Chance of
winning
DUP
90%
SDLP
3%
SF
4%
Alliance
3%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%

Londonderry East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Londonderry East constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %48%44%52%
British Identity45%40%29%
Good Health47%48%48%
UK Born95%93%87%
Good Education35%36%39%
Good Job45%47%51%
High SEC56%57%51%
Average Age47.647.248.3
ABC1 Class43%46%53%

Londonderry East ranks #447 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Londonderry East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Londonderry East: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Londonderry East

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Londonderry East at the general election of 2019. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Londonderry East. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Londonderry EastActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
OTH
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensAghadowey2014445168438550150121
Causeway Coast and GlensAltahullion2014012627500439265
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic201426718831517300303
Causeway Coast and GlensBallykelly2014013522500462245
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock201447912448595062115
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland201423711635856038219
Causeway Coast and GlensCoolessan20141151513470029792
Causeway Coast and GlensDrumsurn20141712054620025283
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan2014294833549100245
Causeway Coast and GlensDungiven201402575600619167
Causeway Coast and GlensFeeny201402486600642198
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh201435623229513034197
Causeway Coast and GlensGreysteel2014031212800764285
Causeway Coast and GlensGreystone201417714047300181107
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield201426812531014500244
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea201431927225615038793
Causeway Coast and GlensMacosquin20144087944357054124
Causeway Coast and GlensMagilligan20141802104800029089
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel201415913830682066259
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce2014201732589800229
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart201421916824113400219
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry20141766239939070360
Causeway Coast and GlensRoeside20142031384420015057
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity20141768638759057331
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside2014188181344700136293
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall2014245139385102016227
Derry and StrabaneClaudy201459319285310358105
Derry and StrabanePark201410824531800561195

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Londonderry EastEst. 2019 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensAghadowey2,45018120764918601060621,391
Causeway Coast and GlensAltahullion2,2575119636815804560511,280
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic2,96419926262340101210771,683
Causeway Coast and GlensBallykelly2,1805019332415304660511,237
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock2,4221681936641960990551,375
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland2,60217921371220301070621,476
Causeway Coast and GlensCoolessan2,0848319047315202340511,183
Causeway Coast and GlensDrumsurn2,44011122763817801670641,385
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan2,54118320166523001060571,442
Causeway Coast and GlensDungiven2,2465322928517604710621,276
Causeway Coast and GlensFeeny2,3585523130418005060621,338
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh2,37515223746618802400651,348
Causeway Coast and GlensGreysteel3,0427029739822906530791,726
Causeway Coast and GlensGreystone2,23910818265914801210531,271
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield2,59917621658932501060621,474
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea2,39013924444919202650671,356
Causeway Coast and GlensMacosquin2,0751451516051460850451,177
Causeway Coast and GlensMagilligan2,59711824266019201960671,475
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel2,56613822666025701100651,456
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce2,0421461634912280840461,158
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart2,3341532114833190950631,324
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry2,81216320086218501270601,597
Causeway Coast and GlensRoeside2,0591111646111340990501,169
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity2,78715621681521101220621,582
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside3,08117028678727901420831,747
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall2,83118123673727301120681,607
Derry and StrabaneClaudy2,4107630939321602980761,368
Derry and StrabanePark2,4638123639518604360641,398
 Total69,2463,5966,15815,7655,92106,13001,72939,299

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Londonderry East

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Londonderry East.

Londonderry EastPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensAghadowey2,45018220865018601070581,391
Causeway Coast and GlensAltahullion2,2575219736915804570481,281
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic2,96420026362440101220721,682
Causeway Coast and GlensBallykelly2,1805119432515304670481,238
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock2,42216919466519601000511,375
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland2,60218021471320301080581,476
Causeway Coast and GlensCoolessan2,0848419147415202350481,184
Causeway Coast and GlensDrumsurn2,44011222863917801680601,385
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan2,54118420266623001070531,442
Causeway Coast and GlensDungiven2,2465423028617604720581,276
Causeway Coast and GlensFeeny2,3585623230518005070581,338
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh2,37515323846718802410611,348
Causeway Coast and GlensGreysteel3,0427129839922906540741,725
Causeway Coast and GlensGreystone2,23910918366014801220501,272
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield2,59917721759032501070581,474
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea2,39014024545019202660631,356
Causeway Coast and GlensMacosquin2,0751461526061460860421,178
Causeway Coast and GlensMagilligan2,59711924366119201970631,475
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel2,56613922766125701110611,456
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce2,0421471644922280850431,159
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart2,3341542124843190960591,324
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry2,81216420186318501280561,597
Causeway Coast and GlensRoeside2,05911216561213401000471,170
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity2,78715721781621101230581,582
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside3,08117128778827901430781,746
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall2,83118223773827301130641,607
Derry and StrabaneClaudy2,4107731039421602990711,367
Derry and StrabanePark2,4638223739618604370601,398
 Total69,2463,6246,18615,7935,92106,15801,62039,302

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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