Londonderry East: Seat Details

WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Londonderry East, or click here to find another new seat.

Londonderry East: Overview

Prediction: DUP hold

MP at 2019:Gregory Campbell  (DUP)
County/Area:Londonderry (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:69,246
Turnout:56.8%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
DUP15,76540.1%40.2%
SDLP6,15815.7%15.7%
SF6,12815.6%15.7%
Alliance5,92115.1%15.1%
UUP3,5999.2%9.2%
OTH1,7314.4%4.1%
DUP Majority9,60724.4%24.5%
Pred Maj
Chance of winning
DUP
92%
SDLP
3%
SF
2%
Alliance
2%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%

Londonderry East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Londonderry East constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %48%44%52%
British Identity37%32%52%
Average Age50.749.349.5
Good Education46%48%49%
Employed52%56%58%
Homeowner69%69%63%
Car owner89%87%77%
Married47%46%45%
Ethnic White98%97%83%
Christian84%81%50%
ABC1 Class44%46%55%
Average House Price£146,102£148,218£309,210

Londonderry East ranks #449 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
British IdentityNational Identity (TS027)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Londonderry East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2022, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors


Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Londonderry East

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Londonderry East.

Londonderry EastActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensAghadowey2,585DUPDUP26221069514201400181,467
Causeway Coast and GlensAltahullion2,251DUPDUP8611944216503910731,276
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic2,548DUPDUP1722655153200850901,447
Causeway Coast and GlensBallykelly2,282SFSF5814240614104710761,294
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock2,628DUPDUP2701637462170810141,491
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland2,644DUPDUP2222156722750760421,502
Causeway Coast and GlensCoolessan1,914DUPDUP2015350511302410541,086
Causeway Coast and GlensDrumsurn2,502DUPDUP3722670323001920321,420
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan2,563DUPDUP2581596562260790771,455
Causeway Coast and GlensDungiven2,526SFSF1931536013405260791,433
Causeway Coast and GlensFeeny2,454SFSF1928735413205200801,392
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh2,370DUPDUP18322948513002880301,345
Causeway Coast and GlensGreysteel3,141SFSF25352457170067401051,783
Causeway Coast and GlensGreystone2,383DUPDUP4616574024101260361,354
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield2,568DUPDUP2142005603230810801,458
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea2,604DUPDUP16829148613903650281,477
Causeway Coast and GlensMacosquin2,488DUPDUP2581257521800770201,412
Causeway Coast and GlensMagilligan2,329DUPDUP3520765319102040321,322
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel2,438DUPDUP1352325723000760681,383
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce2,186DUPDUP1821365132610720761,240
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart2,208DUPDUP1462544282610900741,253
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry2,684DUPDUP1761447522760860901,524
Causeway Coast and GlensRoeside2,079DUPDUP671526461990920211,177
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity2,215DUPDUP1431515952350670641,255
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside2,823DUPDUP14528864030101480801,602
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall2,729DUPDUP2252416633160770281,550
Derry and StrabaneClaudy2,526SDLPSDLP2443338715803730581,433
Derry and StrabanePark2,574SFSF3132541314804520921,461
 Total69,242DUPDUP3,6266,17915,7965,92406,15001,61739,292

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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