Londonderry East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Londonderry East: Overview

 Prediction: DUP hold 

MP at 2019: Gregory Campbell  (DUP)
County/Area: Londonderry (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 69,246
Turnout: 56.8%
2019
Votes
2019
Share
Predicted
Votes
DUP15,76540.1%40.2%
SDLP6,15815.7%15.7%
SF6,12815.6%15.7%
Alliance5,92115.1%15.1%
UUP3,5999.2%9.2%
OTH1,7314.4%4.1%
DUP Majority9,60724.4%Pred Maj 24.5%
Chance of
winning
DUP
92%
SDLP
3%
SF
3%
Alliance
2%
UUP
0%
OTH
0%

Londonderry East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Londonderry East constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %48%44%52%
British Identity45%40%29%
Good Health47%48%48%
UK Born95%93%87%
Good Education35%36%39%
Good Job45%47%51%
High SEC56%57%51%
Average Age47.647.248.3
ABC1 Class43%46%53%

Londonderry East ranks #449 for "Leave", out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Londonderry East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2020, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Londonderry East

This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Londonderry East.

Londonderry EastActualPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
GE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensAghadowey2,545DUPDUP23720869014301430231,444
Causeway Coast and GlensAltahullion2,225DUPDUP10111743516103830651,262
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic2,534DUPDUP1592655223250890771,437
Causeway Coast and GlensBallykelly2,282SFSF8614039813604670671,294
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock2,621DUPDUP2481647512210850191,488
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland2,625DUPDUP1982146682730790571,489
Causeway Coast and GlensCoolessan1,907DUPDUP3315149911002370521,082
Causeway Coast and GlensDrumsurn2,450DUPDUP6021966921201890431,392
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan2,521DUPDUP2321586582300810711,430
Causeway Coast and GlensDungiven2,520SFSF3131435813405210731,431
Causeway Coast and GlensFeeny2,418SFSF3028334913105090711,373
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh2,355DUPDUP16322948913302830411,338
Causeway Coast and GlensGreysteel3,081SFSF3934545016806550911,748
Causeway Coast and GlensGreystone2,365DUPDUP7415970822201300491,342
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield2,595DUPDUP1942055793350850751,473
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea2,657DUPDUP16429849714203690401,510
Causeway Coast and GlensMacosquin2,444DUPDUP2331247451790790261,386
Causeway Coast and GlensMagilligan2,339DUPDUP5820563718002040441,328
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel2,622DUPDUP1462496143220850711,487
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce2,194DUPDUP1651395302700750661,245
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart2,194DUPDUP1372544332630930651,245
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry2,670DUPDUP1651457562800900781,514
Causeway Coast and GlensRoeside2,107DUPDUP871516381910980301,195
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity2,204DUPDUP1361515962360700621,251
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside2,964DUPDUP15830166531301620811,680
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall2,752DUPDUP2042456743210820381,564
Derry and StrabaneClaudy2,513SDLPSDLP3942937615203670631,426
Derry and StrabanePark2,542SFSF4832140714604420771,441
 Total69,246DUPDUP3,6256,18315,7915,92906,15201,61539,295

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2020.


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