Louth and Horncastle: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Louth and Horncastle: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Victoria Atkins  (CON)
County/Area:Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Implied Turnout 2019:65.7%
Predicted Turnout:58.5%

CON Majority27,82055.7%6.7%

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

Chance of winning

Louth and Horncastle : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Louth and Horncastle constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right4° Right
National Position21° Nat7° Nat
Social Position12° Con4° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %68%59%52%
Average Age56.150.149.5
Good Education41%47%49%
Car owner86%81%77%
Ethnic White98%86%83%
ABC1 Class48%53%56%
Gross Household Income£35,816£40,483£42,397
Average House Price£209,490£228,007£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Louth and Horncastle: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Louth and Horncastle

The new seat of Louth and Horncastle is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Louth and HorncastleActualPredicted
Old SeatGE19
East LindseyAlford3,780Louth and HorncastleCONCON
East LindseyBinbrook2,039Louth and HorncastleCONCON
East LindseyConingsby and Mareham6,775Louth and HorncastleCONCON
East LindseyFulstow2,065Louth and HorncastleCONCON
East LindseyGrimoldby1,836Louth and HorncastleCONCON
East LindseyHagworthingham1,955Louth and HorncastleCONCON
East LindseyHalton Holegate470Boston and SkegnessCONCON
East LindseyHalton Holegate1,694Louth and HorncastleCONCON
East LindseyHolton le Clay and North Thoresby4,120Louth and HorncastleCONLAB
East LindseyHorncastle6,005Louth and HorncastleCONCON
East LindseyLegbourne1,929Louth and HorncastleCONCON
East LindseyMablethorpe6,605Louth and HorncastleCONLAB
East LindseyMarshchapel and Somercotes3,733Louth and HorncastleCONCON
East LindseyNorth Holme1,859Louth and HorncastleCONLAB
East LindseyPriory and St James'3,739Louth and HorncastleCONLAB
East LindseyRoughton1,949Louth and HorncastleCONCON
East LindseySt Margaret's2,047Louth and HorncastleCONLAB
East LindseySt Mary's1,885Louth and HorncastleCONCON
East LindseySt Michael's1,759Louth and HorncastleCONLAB
East LindseySpilsby2,294Louth and HorncastleCONLAB
East LindseySutton on Sea3,938Louth and HorncastleCONCON
East LindseyTetford and Donington2,042Louth and HorncastleCONCON
East LindseyTetney1,899Louth and HorncastleCONCON
East LindseyTrinity1,768Louth and HorncastleCONLAB
East LindseyWithern and Theddlethorpe2,087Louth and HorncastleCONCON
East LindseyWoodhall Spa3,728Louth and HorncastleCONCON
East LindseyWragby2,038GainsboroughCONCON
 Total76,038 CONCON

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Louth and Horncastle if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.

© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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