Mansfield: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Mansfield: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Ben Bradley  (CON)
County/Area:Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:74,411
Implied Turnout 2019:63.9%
Predicted Turnout:54.0%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON30,44964.1%33.7%
LAB14,55130.6%42.4%
LIB1,5773.3%2.7%
OTH9612.0%1.0%
Reform00.0%16.0%
Green00.0%4.2%
CON Majority15,89833.4%8.8%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

Chance of winning
CON
28%
LAB
71%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%
Green
0%

Mansfield : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Mansfield constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015LABCONCON
Economic Position4° Left4° Right
National Position16° Nat7° Nat
Social Position7° Con4° Con
TribeSomewheres
EU Leave %71%59%52%
Average Age50.650.149.5
Good Education40%47%49%
Employed57%57%58%
Homeowner66%67%63%
Car owner79%81%77%
Married45%46%45%
Ethnic White95%86%83%
Christian49%48%50%
ABC1 Class44%53%56%
Gross Household Income£36,457£40,483£42,397
Deprivation57%52%52%
Average House Price£162,054£228,007£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Mansfield: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Mansfield

The new seat of Mansfield is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: MansfieldActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
MansfieldBancroft2,199MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldBerry Hill2,050MansfieldCONCON
MansfieldBrick Kiln2,083MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldCarr Bank2,053MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldCentral2,011MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldEakring2,289MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldGrange Farm2,348MansfieldCONCON
MansfieldHolly Forest Town2,290MansfieldCONCON
MansfieldHornby2,072MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldKings Walk2,224MansfieldCONCON
MansfieldKingsway Forest Town2,357MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldLindhurst602MansfieldCONCON
MansfieldLing Forest2,051MansfieldCONCON
MansfieldManor2,331MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldMarket Warsop2,200MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldMaun Valley Forest Town2,439MansfieldCONCON
MansfieldMeden2,446MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldMill Lane2,040MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldNetherfield2,010MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldNewlands Forest Town2,132MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldOak Tree1,962MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldOakham2,228MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldPark Hall2,388MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldPenniment2,018MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldPleasley31MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldRacecourse2,427MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldRock Hill2,205MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldRufford1,537MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldSherwood1,967MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldSouthwell2,123MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldThompsons2,417MansfieldCONCON
MansfieldVale2,191MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldWainwright2,035MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldWarsop Carrs2,415MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldWest Bank2,077MansfieldCONLAB
MansfieldYeoman Hill2,164MansfieldCONLAB
 Total74,412 CONLAB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Mansfield if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


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